2025年08月16日 ■性继续释放，转债涨幅超正股 转债周度跟踪 20250815 ● 1. 周观点及展望 Eles of 35 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com (2) 对于高弹基本面与高价结合的转债：此类转债也是传统的高平价、高价转债， 波动水平较大，但由于基本面有支撑，也是目前转债市场中最有弹性的品种。2025 年 Q2 高价转债表现相对受限，估值水平整体不高，强赎风险压制较为明显。但是高价转 债正股基本面相对较好，基本面支撑逻辑顺畅，转债的空间有望进一步打开，在当前 风偏较高的背景下，或是转债配置最优解，Q3 以来高价转债弹性已逐步释放。此类转 债即使发布强赎公告,在负债端充裕的背景下,预计对转债价格的影响也较为可控。 联系人 徐亚 (8621)23297818× xuya@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 转债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds have certain logical support from aspects such as bond floor and institutional behavior [3][7]. - The thick bond floor of convertible bonds currently may lead to an upward breakthrough in the average price as the stock market rises, and the existence of call - risk may cause the valuation and price of non - called convertible bonds to become more expensive [3][7]. - The option value of debt - like convertible bonds has increased, and their high - price and high - valuation state may be maintained, with the YTM possibly dropping to a very low level [3][7]. - As the equity market continues to strengthen and funds flow into equity - related assets, convertible bonds have become a tool for fixed - income plus funds to capture the beta of the equity market. If secondary bond funds replace primary bond funds as the marginal incremental form of fixed - income plus funds flowing into the market, the capital inflow into the convertible bond market may continue to increase [3][7]. - The average remaining term of the convertible bond market is gradually shortening, indicating an increase in both call and downward - revision probabilities. The high price of short - term debt - like convertible bonds currently contains a strong downward - revision expectation [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The high price and high valuation of convertible bonds are supported by four clues, including the thick bond floor, the increase in the option value of debt - like convertible bonds, the strengthening of the equity market and the inflow of funds, and the shortening of the average remaining term of the convertible bond market [3][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the sentiment of convertible bonds and underlying stocks remained positive, with both rising significantly. The 100 - yuan valuation continued to rise unilaterally, and convertible bonds had a strong ability to follow the rise of underlying stocks [6][8]. - The overall market convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 33%, rising by 1.14% in a single week, and the latest quantile level was at the 89.90% percentile since 2017. There was an obvious differentiation in the valuation of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with the valuation of low - rated convertible bonds rising more [6][8]. - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise significantly following the underlying stocks, and the yield to maturity reached a new low since 2017, reporting - 5.09%. As of the latest, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 41.94%, 37.06%, and - 5.09% respectively, changing by - 1.31%, + 3.02%, and - 0.70% compared with last week, and their current quantile levels were at the 61.90, 62.70, and 0.00 percentiles since 2017 [6][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, convertible bonds such as Yingji, Chujiang, and Liancheng issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 22 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity convertible bonds among those not delisted is 5 billion yuan [6][14]. - There are currently 52 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 14 of which are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Also, 4 convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [14][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 and Jinneng convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and Jingao convertible bond announced a downward revision to the bottom. As of the latest, 145 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 24 are restricted by net assets and cannot be downward - revised, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [6][20][21]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Guowei and Changqi convertible bonds issued put - option announcements. As of the latest, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 4 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval and 1 is accumulating downward - revision days [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There were no convertible bond issuance announcements this week. According to the latest announcement, Bo 25 convertible bond is to be listed next week (July 28, 2025). As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress with an expected issuance scale of 6.9 billion yuan, and 3 in the listing - committee approval progress with an expected issuance scale of 4 billion yuan [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, and their valuations slightly declined. Amid better - than - expected Sino - US economic and trade talks, the equity market accelerated its recovery in the first half of the week and then pulled back. There was a divergence in the performance of large - and small - cap styles in the convertible bond market. Large - cap convertible bonds performed strongly due to the continuous replenishment of under - allocated industries by funds, while previously active styles such as TMT declined. Currently, with limited fluctuations in the bond market and doubts about the medium - to - long - term profit improvement of equities, although there is limited upward space for convertible bond valuations, strong support is likely due to supply - demand contradictions, and no breakthrough variables have emerged. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on high - dividend large - cap debt - biased convertible bonds, combined with a balanced equity - biased direction. Pay attention to recent cases of proposed downward revisions and look for potential targets with a strong willingness to promote conversion. Asymmetrical trading, double - low momentum, and clause - based gaming are still recommended [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks this week, with slightly reduced valuations. The equity market first recovered and then pulled back. There was a style divergence in the convertible bond market. - Given the current situation of the bond and equity markets, convertible bond valuations have limited upward space but are likely to be strongly supported. - Allocate high - dividend large - cap debt - biased convertible bonds, combined with a balanced equity - biased direction. Focus on downward - revision cases and use strategies like asymmetrical trading [1][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, and overall valuations slightly decreased. The 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market was 28%, down 0.02% week - on - week, at the 73.1st percentile since 2017. Low - rated convertible bonds had a 100 - yuan premium rate of 23%, down 0.2%, at the 71.2nd percentile. High - rated convertible bonds had a 100 - yuan premium rate of 22%, down 0.31%, at the 79.6th percentile [3][7]. - The conversion premium rate decreased, the pure - bond premium rate increased, and the yield to maturity decreased. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure - bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 47.24%, 26.13%, and - 2.48% respectively, changing by - 0.91%, 0.42%, and - 0.13% from last week, at the 72.4th, 33.3rd, and 15.3rd percentiles since 2017 [3][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - No new convertible bonds issued early - redemption announcements this week. There is currently 1 convertible bond that has issued an early - redemption announcement and is still trading, and no bonds with maturity - redemption announcements are trading. The potential maturity or conversion balance of early - redeemed and matured convertible bonds still trading is 275 million yuan. - There are 26 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 7 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, which are recommended for observation. - Two convertible bonds, including Qianglian, announced not to redeem early. As of now, 49 convertible bonds are within the non - redemption period [13][18][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - Gaoce and Puli announced downward - revision board plans this week. As of now, 170 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the trigger price but no announcement has been made, 46 are in the downward - revision process, and 4 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [20][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - Three convertible bonds, including Sannuo, Lepu 2, and Changhong, issued put - option announcements this week. As of now, 9 convertible bonds are in the cumulative put - option process, 1 is in the downward - revision process, 2 are in the process of board - proposed revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders. Currently, 6 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements [23]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There are no convertible bonds scheduled for issuance or listing next week. As of now, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with an expected issuance scale of about 1.45 billion yuan, and 4 in the listing - committee approval process, with an expected issuance scale of about 270 million yuan [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As of the end of April, the equity market has mostly recovered. The impact of tariff issues on asset prices has become relatively dull, and domestic pro - growth policies have provided effective support, leading to an overall optimistic market expectation. This optimism is reflected in convertible bond valuations, with the market - wide par premium rate approaching the March central level. Small - cap convertible bonds remain strong, but as the earnings disclosure period and rating adjustment window approach, debt - biased convertible bonds perform weakly. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to use high - dividend and downward - revised convertible bonds as the base, focus on recent cases of proposed downward revisions, and look for potential targets with a strong willingness to promote conversion. Asymmetrical trading, double - low momentum, and clause - based gaming strategies are also recommended [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets were volatile, and convertible bond valuations continued to rise, with lower - rated valuations rising slightly more. The market - wide convertible bond par premium rate was 29%, up 1.19% for the week, and the latest quantile was at the 76.80% percentile since 2017. The increase in high - and low - rated valuations was similar, with the low - rated up 0.71% [3]. - This week, convertible bonds fluctuated slightly following the underlying stocks, and the premium rate indicators were generally stable. As of the latest, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 52.71%, 22.79%, and - 1.62% respectively, changing by - 1.35%, + 1.08%, and - 0.25% from last week. Their current quantiles are at the 85.00, 22.50, and 32.50 percentiles since 2017 [6]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Huaxiang and Feikai convertible bonds issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 4 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption announcements and are still trading. No convertible bonds issued maturity redemption announcements this week. Among the still - trading convertible bonds, the potential maturity or conversion balance of early - redemption and maturity convertible bonds is 1.6 billion yuan [12]. - Limin convertible bond announced that it would not redeem the convertible bonds in advance. As of the latest, 58 convertible bonds are within the non - redemption period [16]. 3.2.2 Downward Revision - This week, Weier, Linggang, and Haiyou convertible bonds announced downward revisions, and Zhongzhuang Zhuan 2, Jieneng, Fengyu, and Wanshun Zhuan 2 proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 167 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 4 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 95 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [17]. 3.2.3 Put No convertible bonds issued put announcements this week. As of the latest, 18 convertible bonds are accumulating put - trigger days, among which 2 are in the downward - revision process, 1 has proposed a downward revision, and 15 are in the non - downward - revision interval [22]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - There were no announcements of convertible bond issuances this week. According to the latest announcements, no convertible bonds are scheduled to be listed next week. As of the latest, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approved - registration process with a to - be - issued scale of 13 billion yuan, and 7 in the listing - committee - approved process with a to - be - issued scale of 4.3 billion yuan [24].

Group 1: Market Overview - The convertible bond market continued to decline alongside the equity market, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 1.70% to 420.91 points as of April 11, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11% to 3,238.23 points [1][11][24] - The trading volume and turnover of convertible bonds saw significant increases, with trading volume rising by 105.0% and turnover increasing by 93.0% to 30,833 million hands and 4,654.56 billion respectively [2][24] - The performance of various sectors varied, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, retail, national defense, and food and beverage sectors showing positive performance, while the electrical equipment, communication, machinery, media, and steel sectors experienced the largest declines [19][36] Group 2: Convertible Bond Valuation - The convertible bond premium rate rose to 54.99%, an increase of 20.11% from the previous week, approaching the 50th percentile level of the past 24 years [3][39] - High premium rates were observed in the textile, food and beverage, pharmaceutical, construction materials, and non-bank financial sectors, while lower rates were noted in agriculture, banking, communication, and commercial trade sectors [42] - The pure bond premium rates were higher in the public utility, national defense, automotive, computer, and mining sectors, while lower rates were seen in media, commercial trade, non-bank financial, steel, and banking sectors [42] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 11, 2025, the total balance of listed convertible bonds was 7,023.16 billion, a decrease of 18.29 billion from the previous week, with a weighted average remaining term of 2.8 years [4][48] - The issuance dynamics included three new convertible bonds listed, with total issuance sizes of 5.00 billion, 0.67 billion, and 0.354 billion respectively, and one bond announced for issuance with a planned size of 1.175 billion [51][52] - Demand for convertible bonds from convertible bond funds continued to rise, with the market value held by these funds reaching 1,688.97 billion, a growth of 15.4% compared to the previous quarter [4][48]