[Table_Title] 【广发 纺 服 & 海 外 】 江 南 布 衣 （03306.HK） FY2026H1 业绩表现优异，线下自营及电商渠道销售提速 核心观点：（未特殊备注，本文货币单位均为人民币） 盈利预测：（本文港元兑人民币汇率采取 1:0.88484） [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -6% 9% 23% 38% 52% 02/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 江南布衣 恒生指数 | [分析师： Table_Author]糜韩杰 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | | SFC CE No. BPH764 | | | 021-38003650 | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 董建芳 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525060002 | | | dongjianfang@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，董建芳并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.05 HKD and a target value of 102.81 HKD [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the main brand of the company faced pressure, while the FILA brand showed signs of recovery, and other brands maintained high growth rates. The main brand's retail sales experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year, whereas FILA's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by the "Lighthouse Plan," continuous store renovations, and new business models. The FILA brand is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, while other brands are expected to sustain rapid growth despite increasing competition [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of 102.81 HKD per share [8]. Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 followed by a 52.4% increase in 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.9% in 2023, peaking at 25.3% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.4% to 19.8% in the following years [2].

Group 1 - On January 13, a total of 7 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages, with 1 stock announcing a target price [1] - Based on the highest target price, China Duty Free Group ranked first in target price increase, with a potential increase of 23.93% [1] - Among the stocks with maintained ratings, 4 stocks had unchanged ratings, while 3 stocks received ratings for the first time [1] Group 2 - Chaohongji received the most attention from brokerages, with 2 brokerages providing ratings [1] - In terms of industry classification, the Materials II sector had the highest number of buy-rated stocks, totaling 3, followed by Durable Consumer Goods and Apparel with 2, and Retail with 1 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Insights - The overall market trend is fading, with continued capital inflow into the semiconductor sector [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.0% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.5% [1] - Energy sector showed the best performance with a gain of 3.3%, while the automotive sector saw the largest decline at -7.0% [1] Summary by Sections 2.1 Investment Returns - Energy sector recorded a weekly return of 3.3%, while the automotive sector experienced a decline of 7.0% [13] - The capital goods sector increased by 1.1%, and the semiconductor products and equipment sector had a slight gain of 0.2% [13] 2.2 Capital Flows - The estimated net capital inflow for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was $2.061 billion this week [15] - The automotive sector faced significant outflows, with a net capital outflow of $2.562 billion [15] - The capital goods sector saw a net inflow of $394 million [15] 2.3 Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the semiconductor products and equipment sector was adjusted upward by 0.5% this week [16] - The automotive sector's EPS forecast was increased by 0.7% [16] - Overall, the EPS expectations for all 24 sectors have risen [3] 2.4 Valuation Levels - The report does not provide specific valuation levels in the provided content [18]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][10] - The main contributions to this growth were strong consumer spending and a reduction in inventory drag, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][10] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market initially reacted with concerns of economic overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][11] Fixed Income - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8425% to 1.835% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the bond market [2][12] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 21.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.64 billion yuan from the previous week, while the secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 80.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7 billion yuan [4][17] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 8.46 billion yuan, with a total transaction volume of approximately 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4][19] Industry Analysis - 康耐特光学 (Kangnate Optical) is a leading manufacturer of resin lenses in China, with a robust growth trajectory expected as the market for AI smart glasses expands [5][20] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% in revenue and 35.2% in net profit from 2020 to 2024, driven by high-value products and automation improvements [5][21] - The smart glasses market is anticipated to create significant demand for high-refractive lenses, with 康耐特光学 positioned to benefit from this trend due to its technological advantages and partnerships with major tech companies [5][21]

Group 1 - A total of 12 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages on December 1, with one stock announcing a target price [1] - Based on the highest target price, Aoshikang ranks first with a potential increase of 42.46% [1] - Among the rated stocks, 8 maintained their ratings while 4 received ratings for the first time [1] Group 2 - The sectors with the most buy-rated stocks include technology hardware and equipment, durable goods and apparel, and capital goods, each with 2 stocks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong profit growth in Q3 2025, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, with a net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, representing an 81.54% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 6.237 billion yuan, a 28.35% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 317 million yuan, a 0.33% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has accelerated its expansion in the franchise channel, with a total of 1,412 franchise stores by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 144 stores since the beginning of the year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.135 billion yuan, a 49.52% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, excluding goodwill impairment, marking an 81.54% increase [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 23.16%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 2.71 percentage points to 8.91% [1]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is estimated at 8.039 billion yuan, with a projected EPS of 0.52 yuan per share [5][9]. Brand and Product Development - The main brand,潮宏基, has been actively innovating with new product launches, including the "Non-Heritage Flower Silk" series and various IP collaborations, enhancing its brand presence [2]. - The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy, with the main brand positioned at the intersection of "Oriental culture + fashion" [2]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is positioned as a mid-to-high-end fashion consumer goods multi-brand operator, with a strong emphasis on expanding its jewelry business and enhancing the fashion appeal of traditional gold products [3]. - The report highlights the company's strategy to expand its brand matrix and strengthen its market presence through innovative product offerings and franchise growth [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the top ten convertible bonds for November 2025, along with an analysis of the issuing companies, including their financial performance, business models, and key attractions [14][23][36]. 3. Summary by Company 3.1 Zhongte Convertible Bond - Issuer: A globally leading specialized special steel material manufacturing enterprise with a production capacity of approximately 20 million tons of special steel materials per year [14]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 109.203 billion yuan (YoY -4.22%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.126 billion yuan (YoY -10.41%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 81.206 billion yuan (YoY -2.75%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.33 billion yuan (YoY +12.88%) [14]. - Key Attractions: It is one of the world's steel companies with the most comprehensive variety and specifications, with a production capacity of over 20 million tons of special steel. It has a complete industrial chain, leading cost - control capabilities, and is seeking opportunities for external expansion [15]. 3.2 Shanlu Convertible Bond - Issuer: A company mainly engaged in road and bridge engineering construction and maintenance, with a complete business and management system [23]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 71.348 billion yuan (YoY -2.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.322 billion yuan (YoY +1.47%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 41.354 billion yuan (YoY -3.11%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.41 billion yuan (YoY -3.27%) [23]. - Key Attractions: It has the concept of "China - Special Valuation," potential for improvement in its balance sheet and order volume. It can benefit from infrastructure construction in Shandong Province and the Belt and Road Initiative [26]. 3.3 Hebang Convertible Bond - Issuer: A company with advantages in salt mines, phosphate mines, and natural gas supply, covering the chemical, agricultural, and photovoltaic sectors [36]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 8.547 billion yuan (YoY -3.13%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 31 million yuan (YoY -97.55%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 5.927 billion yuan (YoY -13.02%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan (YoY -57.93%) [36]. - Key Attractions: Its phosphate mines and salt mines contribute to profits, and its liquid methionine production has high - margin potential [37]. 3.4 Aima Convertible Bond - Issuer: A leading enterprise in the electric two - wheeler industry, responsible for R & D, production, and sales [45]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 21.606 billion yuan (YoY +2.71%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.988 billion yuan (YoY +5.68%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 21.093 billion yuan (YoY +20.78%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.907 billion yuan (YoY +22.78%) [45]. - Key Attractions: The continuation of government subsidies for trade - ins, the implementation of new national standards, and potential improvements in gross margin [46]. 3.5 Xingye Convertible Bond - Issuer: One of the first joint - stock commercial banks approved by the State Council and the People's Bank of China, evolving into a modern financial service group [56]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 212.226 billion yuan (YoY +0.66%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 77.205 billion yuan (YoY +0.12%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 161.234 billion yuan (YoY -1.82%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.083 billion yuan (YoY +0.12%) [56]. - Key Attractions: Stable asset quality and continuous growth in scale [57]. 3.6 Huanxu Convertible Bond - Issuer: A global leader in electronic manufacturing design, providing value - added services [67]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 60.691 billion yuan (YoY -0.17%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.652 billion yuan (YoY -15.16%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 43.641 billion yuan (YoY -0.83%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.263 billion yuan (YoY -2.6%) [67]. - Key Attractions: Leading in smart wearable SiP modules and having a global production layout [68]. 3.7 Chongyin Convertible Bond - Issuer: The earliest local joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, with a wide range of business operations [79]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 13.679 billion yuan (YoY +3.54%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.117 billion yuan (YoY +3.8%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 11.74 billion yuan (YoY +10.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.879 billion yuan (YoY +10.19%) [79]. - Key Attractions: Benefiting from the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle strategy, stable asset growth, and proactive risk management [80]. 3.8 Tianye Convertible Bond - Issuer: A leading enterprise in the chlor - alkali chemical industry in Xinjiang, with an integrated circular economy industrial chain [88]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 11.156 billion yuan (YoY -2.7%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan (YoY +108.83%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 7.97 billion yuan (YoY +2.2%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7 million yuan (YoY -28.79%) [88]. - Key Attractions: Relatively stable caustic soda production costs and plans to increase dividend frequency and advance coal mine projects [89]. 3.9 Aorui Convertible Bond - Issuer: A company focusing on the R & D, production, and sales of complex APIs and preparations, leading in multiple fields [101]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 1.476 billion yuan (YoY +16.89%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 355 million yuan (YoY +22.59%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 1.237 billion yuan (YoY +13.67%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 354 million yuan (YoY +24.58%) [101]. - Key Attractions: Improving its dealer network, expanding the market for its preparation products, and having high - quality customer resources [102]. 3.10 Yushui Convertible Bond - Issuer: The largest integrated water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing, with a monopoly position in the local market [110]. - Financial Performance: In 2024, its operating income was 6.999 billion yuan (YoY -3.52%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 785 million yuan (YoY -27.88%). In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating income was 5.568 billion yuan (YoY +7.21%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 779 million yuan (YoY +7.1%) [110]. - Key Attractions: Stable water supply and drainage business, expanding market share, and effective cost control [111].

Report Summary - The report presents the top ten convertible bonds for October 2025, along with an analysis of the issuing companies, including their business profiles, financial performance, and key attractions [13][23][35] Top Ten Convertible Bonds in October 2025 1. Zhongte Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 112.896 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 85.92%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 13.22 [7][13] - Company: A globally leading specialized special - steel material manufacturer with a production capacity of about 20 million tons of special - steel materials per year. It has multiple production and raw - material bases, forming a strategic layout along the coast and rivers [13] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 109.203 billion yuan (YoY - 4.22%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.126 billion yuan (YoY - 10.41%). In H1 2025, revenue was 54.715 billion yuan (YoY - 4.02%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.798 billion yuan (YoY + 2.67%) [13] - Key attractions: It is one of the world's most comprehensive special - steel enterprises in terms of variety and specification, with leading cost - control ability and potential for external expansion [14] 2. Shanlu Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 119.346 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 48.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 4.08 [7][23] - Company: Mainly engaged in road and bridge construction and maintenance, and also expanding into other fields. It can provide one - stop comprehensive services [23] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 71.348 billion yuan (YoY - 2.3%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.322 billion yuan (YoY + 1.47%). In H1 2025, revenue was 28.575 billion yuan (YoY + 0.26%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.029 billion yuan (YoY + 0.89%) [23] - Key attractions: It has the concept of "China - specific valuation", potential for improvement in various aspects under the debt - resolution background, and opportunities from regional infrastructure construction and the Belt and Road Initiative [24] 3. Hebang Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 9 - month - end closing price: 126.41 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 21.55%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: - 168.47 [7][35] - Company: With advantages in mineral resources and gas supply, it has completed a basic layout in the chemical, agricultural, and photovoltaic fields [35] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 8.547 billion yuan (YoY - 3.13%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 31 million yuan (YoY - 97.55%). In H1 2025, revenue was 3.921 billion yuan (YoY - 19.13%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan (YoY - 73.07%) [35] - Key attractions: Its phosphate mines and salt mines have good profit - making potential, and the liquid methionine business is a major profit contributor [36] 4. Aima Convertible Bond - Rating: AA; 9 - month - end closing price: 128.513 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 38.62%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 13.41 [7][45] - Company: The leading enterprise in the electric two - wheeled vehicle industry, mainly engaged in R & D, production, and sales of electric two - wheeled vehicles [45] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 21.606 billion yuan (YoY + 2.71%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.988 billion yuan (YoY + 5.68%). In H1 2025, revenue was 13.031 billion yuan (YoY + 23.04%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.213 billion yuan (YoY + 27.56%) [45] - Key attractions: It may benefit from government subsidies, new national standards, and potential improvement in gross margin [46] 5. Xingye Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 120.859 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 29.02%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 5.43 [7][54] - Company: One of the first joint - stock commercial banks in China, evolving into a modern financial service group [54] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 212.226 billion yuan (YoY + 0.66%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.205 billion yuan (YoY + 0.12%). In H1 2025, revenue was 110.458 billion yuan (YoY - 2.29%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.141 billion yuan (YoY + 0.21%) [54] - Key attractions: It has stable asset quality and scale growth [55] 6. Wentai Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 9 - month - end closing price: 128.918 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 20.93%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: - 23.14 [7][66] - Company: A globally leading semiconductor enterprise adopting the IDM model, providing R & D, manufacturing, and testing services [66] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 73.598 billion yuan (YoY + 20.23%), net profit attributable to shareholders was - 2.833 billion yuan (YoY - 339.83%). In H1 2025, revenue was 25.341 billion yuan (YoY - 24.56%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan (YoY + 237.36%) [66] - Key attractions: After focusing on the semiconductor business, it benefits from market recovery and has growth potential in the automotive and consumer electronics fields [67] 7. Chongyin Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 121.778 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 31.87%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 5.88 [7][77] - Company: An early local joint - stock commercial bank in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, with a wide range of business scopes [77] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 13.679 billion yuan (YoY + 3.54%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.117 billion yuan (YoY + 3.8%). In H1 2025, revenue was 7.659 billion yuan (YoY + 7%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.19 billion yuan (YoY + 5.39%) [77] - Key attractions: It can benefit from the development of the Chengdu - Chongqing economic circle, has stable asset - scale growth, and effective risk - control strategies [78] 8. Tianye Convertible Bond - Rating: AA +; 9 - month - end closing price: 120.562 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 48.06%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 146.42 [7][89] - Company: A leading enterprise in the chlor - alkali chemical industry in Xinjiang, with an integrated circular economy industrial chain [89] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 11.156 billion yuan (YoY - 2.7%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 68 million yuan (YoY + 108.83%). In H1 2025, revenue was 5.16 billion yuan (YoY - 0.98%), net profit attributable to shareholders was - 9 million yuan (YoY - 228.22%) [89] - Key attractions: It may benefit from the price change of caustic soda and has plans for dividend increase and coal - mine projects [90] 9. Aorui Convertible Bond - Rating: AA -; 9 - month - end closing price: 126.412 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 40.56%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 22.72 [7][100] - Company: A company focusing on the R & D, production, and sales of complex APIs and preparations, with leading positions in multiple fields [100] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 1.476 billion yuan (YoY + 16.89%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 355 million yuan (YoY + 22.59%). In H1 2025, revenue was 822 million yuan (YoY + 12.5%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 235 million yuan (YoY + 24.55%) [100] - Key attractions: It has a growing dealer network, expanding preparation products, and high - quality customer resources [101] 10. Yushui Convertible Bond - Rating: AAA; 9 - month - end closing price: 125.081 yuan; Conversion premium rate: 30.74%; PE - TTM of the underlying stock: 26.93 [7][108] - Company: The largest integrated water supply and drainage enterprise in Chongqing, with a stable monopoly position [108] - Financials: In 2024, revenue was 6.999 billion yuan (YoY - 3.52%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 785 million yuan (YoY - 27.88%). In H1 2025, revenue was 3.519 billion yuan (YoY + 7.16%), net profit attributable to shareholders was 458 million yuan (YoY + 10.06%) [108] - Key attractions: It has a high market share, is expanding business externally, and has effective cost - control measures [109]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reported that foreign net inflows into the Chinese stock market reached $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly level since November 2024 [1] - Passive funds saw a net inflow of $5.2 billion in September, with a total net inflow of $18 billion year-to-date, significantly surpassing the full-year total of $7 billion in 2024 [1] - Semiconductor sector saw increased positions from active fund managers, while insurance, durable consumer goods, and apparel sectors experienced reduced positions [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 13.9% in September, leading global major indices [1] - Semiconductor stocks such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reached historical highs, with SMIC closing at HKD 90.9 per share (up 1.39%) and Hua Hong at HKD 87.5 per share (up 2.1%), with year-to-date increases of 185.85% and 304.16% respectively [1] - Positive policy releases have significantly boosted confidence in both A-share and Hong Kong markets, with continued acceleration of southbound capital inflows into the Hong Kong market [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead to October, the A-share and Hong Kong markets are expected to benefit from long-term policy layouts, numerous industrial catalysts, and a relatively loose liquidity environment [2] - Opportunities in A-shares are likely to be concentrated in the technology growth sector, while Hong Kong benefits from its unique market structure and external liquidity expectations [2] - Key focus areas include AI computing power, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, as highlighted by various securities reports [2]