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转债抢权配售策略怎么看?:固定收益专题研究
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-24 15:12
Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Convertible bond rights subscription and placement still have significant allocation value, but the profit margin shows a structural narrowing. From 2020 to 2025 (as of September 19), the increasing number of participants in convertible bond rights subscription and placement led to a decline in profits. There is an obvious differentiation in the industry dimension: traditional industries such as banking and textile and apparel have high placement attention but low average per - share placement profits; while growth sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery and equipment have more prominent profit performance due to low institutional allocation and less competition. The strategy also shows stable seasonal characteristics, with the win - rate and profit level in the second half of the year being significantly better than those in the first half [7]. - The performance of the underlying stock constitutes the core profit source and risk exposure of the rights subscription and placement strategy. Analyzed from three key dimensions: volume change, dilution ratio, and historical stock price quantile. In 2025, the pattern of "stock price rising before placement and falling after placement" has changed, indicating that the game on the underlying stock level is becoming more difficult [7]. - The optimal strategy should adopt the combination idea of "early layout and moderate holding". Back - testing shows that the combination of early establishment of the underlying stock position and timely liquidation near the placement date shows the best risk - return characteristics in all market environments. Investors should comprehensively consider industry characteristics, volume change, dilution ratio, and stock price quantile for multi - dimensional bond selection, focusing on undervalued targets with moderate volume increase in growth sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery and equipment [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Quick Overview of Rights Subscription and Placement - Rights subscription and placement is an investment strategy to obtain the price difference between the primary and secondary markets of convertible bonds by holding stocks in advance. Its core logic is to take advantage of the significant price difference between the issue price (usually 100 yuan) and the post - listing price of new convertible bonds. The operation is to buy the underlying stock before the record date, sell the stock after obtaining the rights to avoid stock price risks, pay the subscription funds on the record date, and sell the convertible bonds after listing to realize the price difference profit [10]. - Since 2020, the profit - making difficulty of the rights subscription and placement strategy has increased. The average per - share profit has shown a narrowing trend, while the average volume increase multiple has gradually risen, and the average valuation center of new bonds on the listing day has continued to move up. There is an obvious "deviation" between the placement attractiveness and the average per - share profit. Traditional industries have high placement attention but low profits, while growth industries have lower attention but higher profits [14][16]. - The typical feature of the underlying stock "rising before placement and falling after placement" has changed in 2025. The strategy shows stable seasonal characteristics, with the second half of the year generally performing better than the first half [21][24]. 2. Discussion on the Strategy Combination of Rights Subscription and Placement - For different underlying stock buying and selling time - point strategies: the rights subscription and placement strategy shows a significant "timing sensitivity" feature. The early entry strategy is generally better than the delayed exit strategy. The strategy should adapt to the market trend. In a bull market, it can be moderately aggressive; in a volatile market, it is necessary to balance risks and returns; in a bear market, it should maintain a defensive stance [36][37][40]. - For different convertible bond selling time - point strategies: moderately extending the holding period can increase the profit, but the marginal effect of profit improvement gradually weakens over time. The profit - enhancing effect of extending the convertible bond holding period shows significant differentiation in different market environments [42][44][45]. - For different combinations of underlying stock buying and convertible bond selling time - points: the "early layout and moderate holding" strategy is continuously effective. Generally, the strategy of buying the underlying stock 10 days in advance and holding the convertible bond for 10 days before selling often has a relatively high cost - performance [48][51]. 3. Practical Application of Rights Subscription and Placement - In actual operation, the unpredictability of convertible bond issuance brings multiple risks, including underlying stock price adjustment, increased liquidity pressure and opportunity cost, and double suppression of strategy profits. In the future, in the context of an expected bull market and possible acceleration of convertible bond supply, the rights subscription and placement strategy has significant allocation value. It is recommended to focus on growth sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery and equipment, and select targets with low stock prices, moderate dilution ratios, and moderate volume increases [52].