文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） #出口系列 报告 20240603-全球制造业PMI回暖视角下的2024出口——出口扫描系列·机会篇 20240604-全球风险与中国挑战——出口扫描系列·风险篇 20240909-特朗普新关税主张对中国出口影响可能有多大？ —— 出口扫描系列·复盘篇 20240910-若美国挑起新一轮贸易战，与2018年有何异同？ —— 出口扫描系列·对比篇 20250118-找寻出口商品的"稳定之星" —— 出口扫描系列·变局篇 20250511-张瑜：出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法 20250607-不止是"出口" —— 中国出口研判进阶手册 核心观点 本篇作为出口深度思考系列第一篇，旨在帮助出口研究人员解决其通常面对的三个"灵魂"问题：这个月出口增速如何？过去几个月出口中抢进口、转港、异 动怎么"回头"定量？今年出口增速中枢怎么看？为了解答这三个问题，我们遍历中国出口相关的 40 余指标，尝试为每个问题构建最实用的跟踪体系。 报告摘要 一、问题之一：近月预测怎么做？ ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 5% and down from 8.1% in April[1] - Dollar-denominated imports in May fell by 3.4% year-on-year, weaker than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of -0.9% and down from -0.2% in April[1] Risk Analysis - The "β risk" indicates potential collapse in U.S. imports, with the latest data showing a significant drop in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI import index to 39.9%, suggesting accumulating downward risks[3] - The "α risk" reflects market share loss, with the "Pan-Asian Circle" (China + Mexico + ASEAN) share of U.S. imports declining from 39.7% in 2024 to 35.6% in the first four months of this year, a drop of approximately 4.1 percentage points[4] Future Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that June's overall export growth may marginally decline, but resilience remains, with direct exports to the U.S. showing signs of rebound[7] - Exports to the EU increased by 11.9% in May, up from 8.2% in April, indicating a recovery in demand from the Eurozone manufacturing sector[7] Import Insights - The import of "hard technology" maintained double-digit growth, with imports of automatic data processing equipment and parts rising by 47.5% year-on-year in May[8] - The overall import growth rate has slowed, with May's imports down 3.4% compared to April's -0.2%, indicating a potential weakening in demand[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in May rebounded to $103.2 billion, reflecting a recovery in trade dynamics despite the challenges faced in exports and imports[8]

Core Viewpoints - In April, China's exports showed unexpected resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 1.9% and slightly above previous forecasts [2][4][42] - The rebound in imports, with a year-on-year change of -0.2%, also surpassed market expectations of -5.9%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics [2][4][65] Group 1: Export Resilience and Risks - The strong export performance in April is attributed to increased exports to non-U.S. regions, which offset the decline in direct exports to the U.S. [6][12] - The analysis distinguishes between two types of risks: beta (β) risk, which relates to U.S. tariff impacts on global demand, and alpha (α) risk, which pertains to the relative tariff rates imposed on China compared to other countries [4][7][18] - If β risk does not materialize, the focus should be on tracking the re-routing of exports to mitigate tariff impacts, as historical data suggests a significant portion of exports can be redirected [5][18] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The increase in imports in April was driven by processing trade, particularly a surge in integrated circuit imports, which contributed significantly to the overall import growth [10][38] - The impact of retaliatory tariffs may not have fully manifested in April's data, as goods shipped before the tariff implementation date were exempt from additional duties [10][68] - The overall import growth of -0.2% in April indicates a narrowing decline compared to March's -4.3%, suggesting a potential stabilization in trade flows [2][65] Group 3: Tracking U.S. Import Demand - Monitoring U.S. import demand is crucial, as any decline could signal broader global trade challenges, with historical data indicating that a drop in U.S. import growth could lead to proportional declines in global trade [4][20] - Key factors influencing U.S. import demand include tariff policies, price transmission effects, and consumer purchasing power, particularly the impact of inflation on U.S. households [20][24] - Projections indicate that U.S. import growth may decline significantly in the coming years, with estimates suggesting a drop to -9.6% by 2025 under current tariff scenarios [24][27] Group 4: Export Performance by Region and Product - Exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries have increased, reflecting the shifting dynamics in trade relationships due to tariffs [51][68] - The performance of consumer goods has been weaker, particularly for products facing high tariffs, while intermediate goods that are exempt from tariffs have shown stronger export growth [57][59] - The overall export landscape indicates a complex interplay of tariff impacts and regional trade adjustments, necessitating ongoing analysis of trade flows and market conditions [4][51]