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基础化工行业点评:越南关税谈判取得进展,看好全球化布局的国产胎企
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-04 01:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the investment suggestion indicates a positive outlook for companies involved in tire manufacturing and export to the U.S. market. Core Insights - Southeast Asia is a major import region for U.S. tires, with significant exports from Thailand and Vietnam despite tariff risks. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export over 42 million passenger car tires to the U.S., accounting for approximately 25% of total imports, while Vietnam is projected to export over 15.5 million, representing about 9% of total imports [2] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on various tire imports, and the potential for increased tariffs could impact financial markets and corporate strategies. However, the limited elasticity of domestic supply in the U.S. suggests that companies may pass on costs to consumers through price increases [2] - Major tire manufacturers are expanding their global presence, with companies like Sailun and Linglong establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Europe to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs and to enhance their market share [2] Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The primary sources of tire imports to the U.S. include Thailand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Vietnam. Cambodia is also increasing its exports due to new production capacities. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export 16 million truck tires to the U.S., making up 27% of total imports, while Vietnam's exports are projected at 8.8 million, or 15% of total imports [2] - The establishment of production bases in Southeast Asia is a strategic response to U.S. trade policies, with companies like Zhongce Rubber and Sailun expanding their operations internationally to ensure supply chain stability and cost advantages [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - Sailun Tire: A leading domestic tire manufacturer with bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Mexico, focusing on global expansion and brand development [2] - Senqcia: Operating in Thailand and Morocco, while advancing its European factory projects [2] - Linglong Tire: A top domestic tire company with strong supporting businesses and bases in Thailand and Serbia [2] - General Shares: With operations in Thailand and Cambodia, poised for significant growth as overseas production ramps up [2]