热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯橡胶行业分析师 王媛媛 【导语】2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，也是橡胶行业较不平凡的一年。在这一年中，多数橡胶产 品价格跌至五年低位；天然橡胶高升水合成橡胶引发市场对替代需求的关注；同时，2025年橡胶行业继 续扩能加剧供应压力；轮胎企业在贸易政策扰动下海外布局加速。"跌价、替代、扩能、出海"贯穿2025 橡胶市场。 跌价：2025年橡胶价格重心整体下移，多产品创出近五年新低 2025年橡胶产品价格重心普遍下移，与2024年强势上涨的行情对比明显。卓创资讯监测数据显示，除天 然橡胶相对抗跌，价格处在近五年中等偏上水平外，其他产品均回落到了近五年低位水平，甚至部分产 品跌至近五年最低价。年内屡创近五年价格新低的产品有丁二烯及下游丁苯、顺丁、SBS、丁腈胶乳、 丁苯胶乳，以及炭黑、促进剂、防老剂。图1中所示，产品所对应的百分数（历史分位数）越小，代表 该产品2025年最低月均价在近五年（2021-2025年）月均价中所处的位置越低；如对应历史分位数为 0%，代表2025年最低月均价已跌至近五年最低位。 2025年橡胶产品价格走弱，主 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the investment suggestion indicates a positive outlook for companies involved in tire manufacturing and export to the U.S. market. Core Insights - Southeast Asia is a major import region for U.S. tires, with significant exports from Thailand and Vietnam despite tariff risks. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export over 42 million passenger car tires to the U.S., accounting for approximately 25% of total imports, while Vietnam is projected to export over 15.5 million, representing about 9% of total imports [2] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on various tire imports, and the potential for increased tariffs could impact financial markets and corporate strategies. However, the limited elasticity of domestic supply in the U.S. suggests that companies may pass on costs to consumers through price increases [2] - Major tire manufacturers are expanding their global presence, with companies like Sailun and Linglong establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Europe to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs and to enhance their market share [2] Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The primary sources of tire imports to the U.S. include Thailand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Vietnam. Cambodia is also increasing its exports due to new production capacities. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export 16 million truck tires to the U.S., making up 27% of total imports, while Vietnam's exports are projected at 8.8 million, or 15% of total imports [2] - The establishment of production bases in Southeast Asia is a strategic response to U.S. trade policies, with companies like Zhongce Rubber and Sailun expanding their operations internationally to ensure supply chain stability and cost advantages [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - Sailun Tire: A leading domestic tire manufacturer with bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Mexico, focusing on global expansion and brand development [2] - Senqcia: Operating in Thailand and Morocco, while advancing its European factory projects [2] - Linglong Tire: A top domestic tire company with strong supporting businesses and bases in Thailand and Serbia [2] - General Shares: With operations in Thailand and Cambodia, poised for significant growth as overseas production ramps up [2]