Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: As of July 25, both RU and NR prices increased, and the RU - NR spread widened. The RU09 - 01 spread was at a high level. RU prices are affected by downstream stocking sentiment and a downward trend in light - colored rubber inventories, while NR prices are influenced by supply panic due to the Thailand - Cambodia conflict and short - term export resilience in the tire industry. It is judged that both RU and NR prices will fluctuate within a range this week [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: RU has a neutral rating, and NR has a neutral - to - bearish rating. The RU9 - 1 spread is neutral - to - bearish, and the RU - NR spread is expected to continue widening. The overall situation of the natural rubber market is complex, with various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory having different impacts [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Spread - As of July 25, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The RU01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [4][98]. - As of July 25, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract was - 485 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the same period [4]. - As of July 25, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week [69]. Supply - **Thailand**: Thailand's rubber production has fully resumed after the conflict, and the supply is increasing. The conflict in the border areas of three Thai provinces may lead to a maximum reduction of 0.5 million tons in July's production if the situation recovers before August, and an additional 2.12 million tons if the conflict continues into August. As of July 28, a cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has taken effect [8]. - **China**: From January to June, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber were 145.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.05%. In June, China imported 5.58 million tons of natural rubber from Thailand, a month - on - month decrease of 39.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.46% due to the delayed tapping and rainy - season disturbances in Thailand. Yunnan's rubber production is affected by rainfall, but the overall increasing trend remains unchanged [30][40]. Demand - **Tire Industry**: It is currently the off - season for tire consumption, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. As of July 24, the full - steel tire production rate of Chinese tire enterprises was 65.02%, a 0.08% decrease from last week, and the semi - steel tire production rate was 65.87%, a 0.12% decrease from last week. The semi - steel tire inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Dairy Products**: The demand for concentrated dairy products is weak, and the production rate is at a historically low level [4]. Inventory - As of July 20, the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 49.3 million tons, a 1% week - on - week decrease, and the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.5 million tons, a 0.25% week - on - week decrease [4][83][84]. - As of July 25, the inventory of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week, while the inventory of 20 - standard rubber futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange increased week - on - week. The total inventory of spot rubber at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [15][48]. Other Factors - The rainy season in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is gradually weakening, but there is still rainfall in China's main producing areas, which may affect rubber tapping [4]. - The tire industry is facing the problems of reduced export profits and high raw material costs. The government has introduced policies to regulate the industry, but the market trend is mainly driven by the commodity market atmosphere [18][26].

Core Insights - The Chinese tire industry holds a 35% global market share but faces significant challenges in profitability and competition, with over 50% of tire companies experiencing declining net profits despite revenue growth [1][2] - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale and price competition to a need for technological innovation and quality improvement to escape the "involution" trap [1][3] Industry Performance - In 2024, China's rubber tire production reached 1.17 billion units, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, while industry profits fell by 8.5% to 31.1 billion yuan [2] - The top five or six companies account for one-third of sales revenue and over 70% of industry profits, highlighting a concentration of market share [2] Challenges and Trends - The industry is characterized by a lack of core technology and brand premium, leading to a situation where companies face "incremental growth without profit" [2][3] - The prevalence of credit sales has increased the risk of cash flow issues for dealers, with a record number of tire stores closing due to unpaid debts in 2024 [3] Technological Advancements - The industry is moving towards "smart manufacturing," with leading companies developing digital standards and intelligent production systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [5][6] - Innovations such as the "Industrial 4.0" factory model and the "橡链云" platform are being implemented to create a more interconnected and efficient tire manufacturing ecosystem [6][7] Global Expansion - Chinese tire companies are seizing new opportunities for global expansion, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and North America, where demand is rising [8][9] - Companies like 森麒麟 are establishing production bases abroad, such as in Morocco, to enhance their global footprint and brand value [8] R&D and Product Development - The industry has seen significant improvements in R&D intensity, leading to breakthroughs in high-performance tire products that meet stringent international standards [10] - The "devil's triangle" of tire performance (rolling resistance, wet grip, and wear resistance) is being addressed through innovative product development [10] Policy and Future Directions - Recent government policies emphasize the need for digital and green upgrades in the tire industry, marking a shift towards quality and value enhancement [11] - The industry is at a crossroads, where the focus is on how to rapidly transform rather than whether to transform, indicating a new era of collaboration and innovation [11]