【资讯】QinRex数据显示，2025年前11个月，印尼出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为145.8万吨， 同比降1%。其中，标胶合计出口142.6万吨，同比降0.8%；烟片胶出口3.1万吨，同比降14%；乳胶出口 0.04万吨，同比降43%。1-11月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为28.4万吨，同比增88%；混合胶出口到中国 合计为8.8万吨，同比增363%。综合来看，印尼前11个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口155.1万吨，同比增 加4%；合计出口到中国37.2万吨，同比增119%。 【原料及现货】截至1月12日，杯胶52.23（-0.53）泰铢/千克，胶乳57.00（+1.00）泰铢/千克，海南民营 胶水15500（+500）元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1920（+10）美元/吨，泰混15100（+50）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截止到1月8日，中国半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为63.78%，环比-2.75个百分 点，同比-13.97个百分点。周内多数时间排产未能正常运行，拖拽整体产能利用率继续走低。中国全钢 轮胎样本企业产能利用率为55.50%，环比-2.43个百分点，同比-3.37个百分点。周内部分企业仍处于" ...

泰国前11个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口400万吨，同比增4.6%；合计出口中国251.8万吨，同比增 24%。 截至12月中旬，中国天然橡胶社会库存总量高达115.2万吨，环比增加2.9万吨或2.6%；其中，深色胶社 会库存74.8万吨，环比增长2.5%；浅色胶社会库存40.4万吨，环比增长2.8%。 12月25日，杯胶51.00(+0.73)泰铢/千克，胶乳54.70(-0.50)泰铢/千克，海南民营胶水14600(0)元/吨，青岛 保税区泰标1880(+15)美元/吨，泰混14800(+50)元/吨。 (12月26日)今日全国天然橡胶 价格一览表 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 天然橡胶 | 标准胶;SVR3L | 越南 | 15600 | 市场 | 上海 | 汇连聚上海网络科技有 | | (SVR3L) | | | 元/吨 | 价 | | 限公司 | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 海南宝 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 年底资金风险偏好下降，橡胶维持窄幅震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:年底资金风险偏好下降，橡胶维持窄幅震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区有雨水天气扰动，整体原料产出减量趋势明确，加工厂采购原料积 | | 供给 | 中性 | 极性一般，保持按需收购为主， 原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰柬地缘紧张局势升级，影响局部割胶及工厂生产，南部雨水环比小幅增 | | | | 加，整体原料价格呈现先跌后涨走势。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步回归常态，周内无极端天气扰动割胶作业，进口胶仍无利润空间，为保订单交付， | | | | 本土工厂积极采 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "buying on dips for single - side trading" and "waiting and seeing for arbitrage" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Thailand floods and the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season have increased the bullish sentiment for rubber. Currently, raw material prices are strongly supported, mid - stream inventories have slightly increased, downstream demand has remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. In the short term, the sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and it may maintain a range - bound performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In the domestic产区, Yunnan's raw material acquisition volume has weakened, and Hainan's raw material output has decreased. In the Thai产区, the northeast is in the peak production period with falling cup - rubber prices, while the south is affected by floods, with firm glue prices. The situation in the Vietnamese产区 is similar to that in the Thai northeast [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have widened. The former is due to capital speculation on Shanghai rubber, and the latter is affected by the news of expanding the delivery products of NR and other factors [3] - **Profit**: It is a mixed situation. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex has deepened losses, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber has changed little [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is in the upper - middle position, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. Near the end of the year and during the contract roll - over period, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, so the commodity market mostly maintains a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Rubber showed a strong and volatile trend this week. The domestic产区 is entering the production - reduction and rubber - cutting season, and there is a risk of floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam, increasing the expectation of supply tightening. Supported by high raw material prices, the 1 - 5 month spread of Shanghai rubber has strengthened, showing a contango structure. As of November 28, the RU main contract closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton (+1.12%) week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - **Disk Position**: The position transfer of the RU main contract has accelerated, with a decrease in RU positions and an increase in NR positions [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread has widened significantly [31] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: There has been excessive precipitation in southern Thailand [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have been firm [49] - **Production in Main - Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber (+17.27%) [72][91] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has slightly increased. As of November 23, 2025, it was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month [98] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires has rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires has declined. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [107][115] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In October, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, and heavy - truck sales were about 93,000 [122][132] - **Tire Exports**: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons (+3.8%), with the cumulative growth rate narrowing. In October, the export volume and value of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [133] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk rubber has been in a loss [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber has rebounded [152]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to seasonal inventory accumulation and insufficient downstream demand [1][2] Supply Analysis - Domestic production areas are gradually entering a reduction and cessation period, while overseas regions like Thailand and Vietnam are experiencing continuous rainfall disruptions, leading to strong support for raw material prices on the cost side [1] - The volume of overseas shipments arriving at ports is showing a seasonal increase trend, but the accumulation of natural rubber inventory continues to suppress spot prices [1] Demand Analysis - As the end of the month approaches, some brands face monthly task pressures, leading to moderate replenishment actions by agents; however, overall demand performance is poor [1] - Channels and end-user sales are sparse, with most distributors showing insufficient willingness to restock, focusing more on digesting existing channel inventory [1] Market Outlook - The natural rubber inventory is entering a seasonal accumulation cycle, with expectations of further declines in downstream enterprise operations [1] - The market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with future attention on the output situation of raw materials during the peak production period in major producing areas and macroeconomic changes [1] - If raw material supply is smooth, a weakening of rubber prices is expected; if supply is constrained, rubber prices are projected to operate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [1]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 28, cup rubber is priced at 53.35 THB/kg (+0.20), latex at 55.00 THB/kg (+0.50), Yunnan rubber at 14,200 CNY/ton (+200), Hainan private rubber at 15,800 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,880 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed rubber at 15,000 CNY/ton (0) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year. The increase is attributed to early snowfall in regions like Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, boosting demand for snow tires [1] - The capacity utilization rate for all-steel tire sample enterprises is 65.87%, up 1.91 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.95 percentage points year-on-year. Production has returned to normal levels, contributing to a slight increase in overall capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory for tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of October 23, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days month-on-month and up 8.35 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days month-on-month and up 0.96 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - According to QinRex, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports were 1.116 million tons, down 20%, while smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, up 22%, and latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% [2] - From January to September, Thailand exported a total of 759,000 tons of natural rubber to China, an increase of 6% year-on-year. Standard rubber exports to China were 459,000 tons, down 19%, while smoked sheet rubber exports surged to 99,000 tons, up 330%, and latex exports reached 199,000 tons, up 70% [2] - Overall, Thailand's total exports of natural and mixed rubber reached 3.247 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with exports to China totaling 2.006 million tons, up 26% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, excessive rainfall in production areas is expected to continue until the end of the month, supporting raw material prices. However, there are expectations for increased supply in the medium to long term, with attention on future weather conditions [3] - Demand for semi-steel tires remains stable, with concentrated orders for snow tires. Production enthusiasm among semi-steel tire manufacturers remains high to ensure normal supply of various products. For all-steel tires, shipment performance is steady, but some companies are experiencing rising inventory levels [3] - The overall macro environment is favorable in the short term, with strong support for rubber prices from raw material prices. Future attention will be on the output of raw materials during the peak production period and macroeconomic changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward price movement, while if supply is constrained, rubber prices are expected to remain around 15,000-15,500 CNY [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - events have introduced new disturbances, and rubber has continued its weak performance. Although there is cost support due to rainfall in production areas and a decline in mid - stream inventory, and the downstream operating rate may rebound after the holiday, external macro - disturbances are negative, so it may maintain a weak performance in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as "neutral". In domestic production areas, raw material release in Yunnan was slow due to rain during the festival, and prices were weak. In Hainan, raw material supply was tight due to rain. In Thailand, heavy rainfall may affect raw material supply, and in Vietnam, although the weather improved, production had not fully recovered, and inventory was low [3] - **Demand**: It is rated as "neutral". As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points). It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rebound next week [3] - **Inventory**: It is rated as "relatively high". As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.1 tons, and that of light - colored rubber was 42.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is rated as "neutral". After the festival, the RU - mixed spread rebounded and expanded, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts also increased slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is rated as "relatively high". The theoretical production profit of Thai STR20 improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex was in a loss state but stable, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex was still in a loss state but recovered significantly [3] - **Valuation**: It is rated as "bearish". The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is rated as "neutral". The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the previous optimistic sentiment has subsided. The domestic commodity market currently lacks drivers, and market sentiment is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed contract [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: After the festival, natural rubber stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 10, the RU main contract closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285 yuan/ton (+1.90%), and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,350 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 250 yuan/ton (+2.07%) [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded [9] - **Disk Position**: The position of the RU2601 contract was relatively low, while the total position of NR increased [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread fluctuated slightly [33] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [41] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of cup rubber rebounded [50] - **Main - Producing Country Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63] - **Main - Producing Country Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73] - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+19.47%). In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [86][93] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory decreased significantly. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 108.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 tons (a decline of 1.4%) [103][110] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the festival, the tire capacity utilization rate may rebound. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39% (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points), and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points) [111][119] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In August, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [125][136] - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, China exported 6.19 million tons of rubber tires (+5.1%). In August, the export volume was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [137] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and the delivery profit of full - latex were in a loss state [147]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 25, cup rubber is priced at 51.05 THB/kg (+0.25), while latex is at 54.80 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The purchase price for Yunnan rubber is 14,300 CNY/ton (-200), and for Hainan private rubber, it is 16,000 CNY/ton [1] - In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, Thai standard rubber is priced at 1,860 USD/ton, while Thai mixed rubber is at 14,850 CNY/ton [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.64%, down 0.10 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.39%, up 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.27 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.15 days, up 0.13 days month-on-month and up 9.67 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.16 days, up 0.03 days month-on-month and down 4.88 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.789 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [2] - Standard rubber exports amounted to 1.017 million tons, down 19% year-on-year, while smoked sheet rubber exports increased by 21% to 265,000 tons [2] - Exports of latex increased by 9% to 496,000 tons, with total exports to China reaching 696,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Southeast Asia is expected to increase due to improved rainfall conditions, putting pressure on raw material prices and weakening cost support for rubber [3] - Downstream tire manufacturers have completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the pace of inventory reduction for natural rubber [3] - Despite some companies facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, indicating potential inventory build-up [3] Market Outlook - The price range for the January contract is projected between 15,000 and 16,500, with future attention on raw material output during peak production periods [3]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - Since August 4, natural rubber futures 2601 contract have shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak of 16,020 yuan/ton on August 19, and closing at 15,905 yuan/ton on August 25 [1] - The global natural rubber market is expected to enter a production increase season from September to November, with a projected slight increase of 0.5% in global production to 14.892 million tons by 2025, primarily driven by major producing countries like Thailand and China [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Three main factors are influencing the supply side of natural rubber prices: 1. Expected production increase in major producing regions due to improved weather conditions, although geopolitical factors and uncertain weather in Q4 may disrupt production [1] 2. Policy disruptions such as state reserve purchases and tariff adjustments affecting the supply landscape, with China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] 3. Rising domestic inventory levels, with Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber reaching 397,400 tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for rubber has shown resilience despite being weaker than last year, supported by ongoing investments in new energy and infrastructure [2] - In July 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, although down 15% from June [2] - The export of tires has slowed due to U.S. tariff policies and EU anti-dumping investigations, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in rubber tire exports from January to July, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year's growth [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook for natural rubber prices suggests a continued strong fluctuation, with caution advised regarding upward potential due to a lack of core bullish factors on the supply side and steady but weak demand [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that the natural rubber futures 2601 contract may continue to show a strong oscillating trend, with support levels at 15,200 to 15,000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16,000 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3]