【原料及现货】截至9月25日，杯胶51.05（+0.25）泰铢/千克，胶乳54.80（-0.50）泰铢/千克。云南胶水 收购价14300（-200）元/吨，海南民营胶水16000（0）元/吨，青岛保税区泰标1860（0）美元/吨，泰混 14850（0）元/吨。 【逻辑】供应方面，东南亚降雨有缓解趋势，产区集中上量预期偏强，原料价格承压，橡胶成本支撑减 弱。下游轮胎厂节前补库基本完成，天胶现货库存去库节奏有所放缓。需求方面，目前虽部分企业缺货 现象仍存，企业装置运行平稳以补充库存，但整体出货表现不及预期，部分企业库存仍存提升迹象，为 缓解压力，不排除部分企业存灵活控产行为。综上，01合约区间参15000-16500，后续关注主产区旺产 期原料产出情况，若原料上量顺利则区间上沿高空思路，若原料上量不畅预计胶价延续区间内运行。 【操作建议】观望 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - Since August 4, natural rubber futures 2601 contract have shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching a peak of 16,020 yuan/ton on August 19, and closing at 15,905 yuan/ton on August 25 [1] - The global natural rubber market is expected to enter a production increase season from September to November, with a projected slight increase of 0.5% in global production to 14.892 million tons by 2025, primarily driven by major producing countries like Thailand and China [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Three main factors are influencing the supply side of natural rubber prices: 1. Expected production increase in major producing regions due to improved weather conditions, although geopolitical factors and uncertain weather in Q4 may disrupt production [1] 2. Policy disruptions such as state reserve purchases and tariff adjustments affecting the supply landscape, with China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in July 2025 [1] 3. Rising domestic inventory levels, with Qingdao's general trade inventory of natural rubber reaching 397,400 tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for rubber has shown resilience despite being weaker than last year, supported by ongoing investments in new energy and infrastructure [2] - In July 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 83,000 units, a 42% increase year-on-year, although down 15% from June [2] - The export of tires has slowed due to U.S. tariff policies and EU anti-dumping investigations, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in rubber tire exports from January to July, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous year's growth [2] Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook for natural rubber prices suggests a continued strong fluctuation, with caution advised regarding upward potential due to a lack of core bullish factors on the supply side and steady but weak demand [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that the natural rubber futures 2601 contract may continue to show a strong oscillating trend, with support levels at 15,200 to 15,000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 16,000 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - Natural rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 15,470.00 yuan, closing at 15,575.00 yuan, down 1.92% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures recommends holding long positions in natural rubber, citing pressure on inventory but a limited import volume from July to October, leading to a gradual reduction in stocks [2] - New Century Futures expects natural rubber prices to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, driven by increased purchasing activity from downstream tire manufacturers and a decrease in overall port inventory [3] - Green Dahan Futures anticipates a medium to long-term bullish outlook for natural rubber, despite recent price declines attributed to concerns over demand performance [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market shows a supply surplus, but the gap between supply and demand is narrowing, with expectations of tighter raw material supply due to increased rainfall in major production areas [3] - Domestic inventory is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by stable demand and favorable supply-side conditions [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to experience weak consolidation in the short term. The supply from the main producing areas is increasing, leading to a continuous decline in raw material prices and a weakening of cost support. Terminal demand is weak, with low operating rates, providing limited support for rubber prices. Additionally, after the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment, the market's bearish sentiment is rising [82][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - ANRPC's June 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in June will decrease by 1.5% to 1191000 tons, while consumption will increase by 0.7% to 1271000 tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production is expected to decline by 1.1% to 6076000 tons, and cumulative consumption will increase by 1% to 7715000 tons. In 2025, global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14892000 tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15565000 tons. The natural rubber price showed a bearish trend in June due to improved supply in major producing areas, rising port inventories, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57044000 pieces. Except for the motorcycle and scooter tire segments, the sales volume of various tire categories was lower than that in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2257000 tons, and exports to China increased by 35% year - on - year to 1423000 tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets experienced significant pullbacks. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared to the previous period [10][11]. Price Differences - The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. For example, on August 1, 2025, the price difference of RU09 - NR09 was 2135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74% [23][24]. - This week, the import rubber market's offer prices declined. The price differences between imported rubber and RU showed different trends. For example, the price difference between Thai mixed rubber and RU was - 260 yuan/ton on August 1, 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 46.39% [26][27]. - The price difference between whole - milk and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber was 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200% [32][33]. - The price differences between synthetic rubber and RU narrowed. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between butadiene rubber and RU was - 2710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.94% [35][36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly. On August 1, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 4.75, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.01% [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - In the Thai production area, the temperature and rainfall in the southern part increased significantly. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared to the same period [42][44]. - Due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the prices of rubber futures and spot goods declined, and raw material prices also followed suit. However, due to more rainfall in Yunnan recently, raw material prices remained relatively firm. On August 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 47.4 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.20% [47][48]. - The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber increased, and the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory first increased and then decreased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 6.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 24.53% [55][56]. - As the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products, the overall processing profit decreased. On August 1, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 111 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 202.78% [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [62][63]. Demand - During the cycle, some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the month, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 59.26% and 69.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4.77% and 0.11% [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. On July 25, 2025, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 804900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17% [73][75]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange showed different trends. On August 1, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 177600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41% [78][79]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is weak consolidation. The supply in the producing areas continues to increase, raw material prices are falling, and cost support is weakening. Terminal demand is weak, and the operating rate is low, providing limited support for rubber prices. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short - term. The supply from the producing areas is increasing, raw material prices are falling, cost support is weakening, terminal demand is weak, and the market's bearish sentiment is rising [81][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 1.4892 billion tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 1.5565 billion tons. In June, production was expected to fall by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption to rise by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. The price showed a bearish trend due to supply improvement, rising port inventories, and trade tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces. Except for motorcycle and scooter tires, the sales of other types of tires were lower than those in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets had a significant correction. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared with the previous period [10][11]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. The spreads of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spreads of 3L - Thai mixed increased [21][30]. - The prices of substitute rubbers such as BR and SBR decreased, and the spreads between synthetic rubbers and RU narrowed [33]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature and rainfall in the southern region increased significantly. In China, the rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared with the same period in previous years [40][42]. - The prices of raw materials decreased. The prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets decreased, while the raw materials in Yunnan were still relatively firm due to more rainfall [44][45]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber widened, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories first rose and then fell [53]. - The overall processing profit decreased as the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products [57]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [61][62]. Demand - Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the cycle, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The finished product inventory decreased as the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated at the end of the month [65]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [69][70]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. There is a high possibility of inventory reduction in Qingdao next period, while there may still be a slight increase in inventory in Yunnan [72]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply from the main producing areas increased this week, and raw material prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support of rubber prices [82]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises were 69.98% and 59.26% respectively, showing a weak demand [82]. - View: It is expected that the rubber price will continue its weak consolidation in the short - term due to the increasing supply, falling raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment [82]. - Valuation: The basis between whole milk and RU main contract was stable, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract narrowed [82]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound and weak; the inter - period spread trading should shift from reverse arbitrage to positive arbitrage; for cross - variety trading, just observe for now [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: As of July 25, both RU and NR prices increased, and the RU - NR spread widened. The RU09 - 01 spread was at a high level. RU prices are affected by downstream stocking sentiment and a downward trend in light - colored rubber inventories, while NR prices are influenced by supply panic due to the Thailand - Cambodia conflict and short - term export resilience in the tire industry. It is judged that both RU and NR prices will fluctuate within a range this week [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: RU has a neutral rating, and NR has a neutral - to - bearish rating. The RU9 - 1 spread is neutral - to - bearish, and the RU - NR spread is expected to continue widening. The overall situation of the natural rubber market is complex, with various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory having different impacts [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Spread - As of July 25, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The RU01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [4][98]. - As of July 25, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract was - 485 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the same period [4]. - As of July 25, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week [69]. Supply - **Thailand**: Thailand's rubber production has fully resumed after the conflict, and the supply is increasing. The conflict in the border areas of three Thai provinces may lead to a maximum reduction of 0.5 million tons in July's production if the situation recovers before August, and an additional 2.12 million tons if the conflict continues into August. As of July 28, a cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has taken effect [8]. - **China**: From January to June, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber were 145.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.05%. In June, China imported 5.58 million tons of natural rubber from Thailand, a month - on - month decrease of 39.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.46% due to the delayed tapping and rainy - season disturbances in Thailand. Yunnan's rubber production is affected by rainfall, but the overall increasing trend remains unchanged [30][40]. Demand - **Tire Industry**: It is currently the off - season for tire consumption, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. As of July 24, the full - steel tire production rate of Chinese tire enterprises was 65.02%, a 0.08% decrease from last week, and the semi - steel tire production rate was 65.87%, a 0.12% decrease from last week. The semi - steel tire inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Dairy Products**: The demand for concentrated dairy products is weak, and the production rate is at a historically low level [4]. Inventory - As of July 20, the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 49.3 million tons, a 1% week - on - week decrease, and the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.5 million tons, a 0.25% week - on - week decrease [4][83][84]. - As of July 25, the inventory of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week, while the inventory of 20 - standard rubber futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange increased week - on - week. The total inventory of spot rubber at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [15][48]. Other Factors - The rainy season in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is gradually weakening, but there is still rainfall in China's main producing areas, which may affect rubber tapping [4]. - The tire industry is facing the problems of reduced export profits and high raw material costs. The government has introduced policies to regulate the industry, but the market trend is mainly driven by the commodity market atmosphere [18][26].

Core Insights - Natural rubber futures experienced slight adjustments on June 19, with spot prices remaining stable [1] - The main contract for natural rubber futures closed at 14,030.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.21% increase, with a trading volume of 292,773 lots [2] Price Overview - The trading prices for standard rubber (SCRWF) from various suppliers in Shandong Province were reported at 13,800 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai market indicated a transaction price range for 2023 SCRWF at 13,900-14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Market Conditions - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to harvest, but weather disruptions have limited output in Thailand, leading to a rebound in cup rubber and latex prices [3][5] - The inventory of natural rubber futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was reported at 193,120 tons, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous trading day [4] Demand Factors - The downstream tire industry is facing challenges due to difficulties in inventory reduction, a significant drop in export orders, and a seasonal decline in automotive consumption [5] - The consumption of semi-steel tires, closely related to exports, is particularly weak, contributing to ongoing pressure on rubber prices [5]

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 13, cup rubber is priced at 53.34 THB/kg (down 0.20), while latex is at 60.25 THB/kg (up 0.50) [1] - Yunnan rubber water acquisition price is 13,900 CNY (up 100), and Hainan fresh latex is also 13,900 CNY (up 200) [1] - Full latex in the Shanghai market is priced at 14,900 CNY (down 50), while Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard is at 1,800 USD/ton (up 10) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.71%, down 19.98 percentage points month-on-month and down 32.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 41.69%, down 17.85 percentage points month-on-month and down 9.89 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.09 days, down 0.82 days month-on-month and up 14.84 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Automotive Industry Insights - In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million units for the first time, reaching 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% [2] - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 4.429 million and 4.3 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48.3% and 46.2%, accounting for 42.7% of total new car sales [2] - In terms of exports, 1.937 million vehicles were exported in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with new energy vehicle exports at 642,000 units, up 52.6% [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) has announced a one-month delay in the opening season for 2025, maintaining high raw material prices [2] - Despite a shift to inventory reduction among tire companies, overall inventory levels remain high, indicating continued inventory pressure [2] - Short-term expectations for rubber prices are mixed, with potential fluctuations between 14,500 and 15,500, suggesting a strategy of clearing positions at the upper end of this range [3]

Group 1 - The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) has announced a one-month delay in the 2025 rubber tapping season, which is expected to impact production by approximately 200,000 tons [2] - The delay in the tapping season has led to a rebound in rubber prices, but there are concerns regarding the demand due to rising inventory levels in tire companies [2] - The average capacity utilization rates for semi-steel and all-steel tire manufacturers in China have decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in production [1] Group 2 - As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers in China was 66.69%, down 5.67 percentage points month-on-month and 12.29 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tires increased to 45.91 days, reflecting a rise in inventory pressure [1] - The expected price range for rubber is projected to be between 14,500 and 15,500 THB due to the conflicting supply and demand dynamics [2]