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【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的5月经济:价格篇
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-06-03 07:44
Core Viewpoint - The overall price trend in May shows a lack of consistent recovery, with industrial product prices exhibiting relative weakness, particularly in the context of recent "soft indicators" signaling economic challenges [3][15]. Group 1: Industrial Material Prices - As of May 31, the Business Price Index (BPI) recorded 856 points, down 0.8% from the end of April, with chemical prices showing a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [1][4]. - The energy index within the BPI fell by 2.8% due to geopolitical events affecting oil production [5]. - The South China Industrial Products Index recorded a month-on-month decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [7]. Group 2: Domestic Pricing Adjustments - Domestic pricing for key commodities such as coking coal and cement saw significant declines, with coking coal futures down 26.8% and cement prices down 7.3% month-on-month [7][14]. - Rebar prices fluctuated, peaking at 3073 CNY/ton on May 16 before falling to 2925 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.9% [7][9]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities mostly declined, with Beijing and Guangzhou down 0.8% and Shanghai remaining flat [9][10]. - The year-to-date high for these cities was recorded earlier in the year, indicating a potential cooling in the real estate market [9]. Group 4: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 6.3% month-on-month, with significant declines in silicon wafer prices [10][12]. - In contrast, the semiconductor sector showed strength, with the DXI index rising 9.7%, indicating a positive outlook for memory products [10][12]. Group 5: Export and Shipping Prices - The export shipping sector saw a general increase in prices, particularly for container shipping to the U.S., with indices for Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York rising by 42.8% and 43.2% respectively [13][14]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stabilized with a 2.3% increase, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping rates [13][14]. Group 6: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with pork prices slightly increasing by 0.2% while vegetable prices fell by 1.4% [14]. - Fruit prices rebounded by 3.3% due to supply issues caused by drought conditions in northern regions [14].