盈利预测与估值：因产品价格走弱，影响价差实现，我们适当调低公司2025-2027 年的盈利预期。预计 公司未来三年归母净利润分别为62.49、76.84 和98.81 亿元，EPS 分别为1.86、2.28 和2.93 元，当前股价 对应PE 分别为10.22X、8.31X 和6.46X，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 乙烷价格走弱，利好C2 链盈利。得益于美国乙烷供应较为充分，年内MB乙烷价格持续走弱，截至8 月 15 日，美国MB 乙烷价格为0.2064 美元/加仑，三季度均价约0.2281 美元/加仑，乙烷价格走弱有助于乙 烯-乙烷价差持续走强，助力公司实现C2 链盈利修复。此外，年初国家关税税则委员会对乙烷产品单 列，进口关税税率为1%，乙烷加工成本优势仍在。 风险提示：原料供应风险、安环生产风险、项目进度不急预期风险等。 事件：日前，卫星化学发布2025 年半年报，报告期内公司实现营业总收入234.60 亿元，同比+20.93%； 实现归母净利润27.44 亿元，同比+33.44%；扣非归母净利润约为28.96 亿元，同比+29.61%。其中，二 季度单季实现营业总收入111.31 亿元，同比+5.05 ...

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by new capacity releases and rising product prices [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.03%, and a net profit of 1.568 billion yuan, up 53.38% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.68%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02 percentage points, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.43 percentage points [3]. Capacity Expansion and Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic light hydrocarbon cracking sector, with multiple projects set to launch in 2025 and 2026, which are expected to significantly boost performance [4]. - New capacity releases in the second half of 2024 are anticipated to contribute positively to revenue and profit growth [3][4]. Product Pricing and Cost Factors - The increase in prices for acrylic acid and esters has enhanced profitability in the C3 industry chain, contributing to overall performance growth [3]. - The impact of ethane tariffs is expected to diminish, with a planned reduction in import tariffs from 2% to 1% by the end of 2024, which will alleviate cost pressures on the C2 industry chain [4]. Profit Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 6.3 billion yuan, 7.5 billion yuan, and 9.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4%, 18%, and 21% [5]. - The current A-share price corresponds to a low PE ratio of 9, 8, and 6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating potential for investment [5].