Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for sports footwear and apparel remains weak, with no clear turning point observed in January orders. Retail performance in the US and UK shows some resilience, while demand in continental Europe and Japan remains weak. Growth is primarily driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel recovery expected to take more time. Export performance is improving in Vietnam, while China's export remains under pressure [2][6][24] - The upstream manufacturing sector shows strong performance certainty, with retail sales of apparel brands improving. The US Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's tariff policy is favorable for the manufacturing sector. The performance of upstream manufacturing is expected to be more certain in the first half of 2026, while the downstream sports supply chain is on a recovery path. Retail sales growth for apparel brands in January and February is promising, and sentiment in the sector is likely to improve [7][32] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In January, the revenue growth for major footwear manufacturers varied: Yuanyuan Group's revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while Fengtai's revenue decreased by 1.8%, Zhijiang International's by 3.3%, and Yuchi-KY's by 5.1%. For apparel manufacturers, Ruhong's revenue grew by 7.6%, while Juyang's revenue fell by 19.2% [5][17] Demand Analysis - Retail demand in January showed resilience in the US and UK, with the US maintaining low positive growth and the UK showing relative stability. France's retail remains near zero growth, Germany shows some recovery, while Japan's growth is significantly weakening. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, indicating that growth is mainly supported by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption recovery lagging [6][24][27] Upstream and Downstream Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to recover in 2026, with strong performance certainty driven by rising material prices. Recommended stocks include Xin'ao Co. and others with strong earnings potential. The A-share market is expected to see continued destocking in 2025, with a potential for profit optimization in 2026. Recommended stocks include Mercury Home Textiles and others focusing on high-end apparel [32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - December orders for sports footwear and apparel showed a month-on-month decline, indicating that the overall industry has not yet reached an inflection point. Retail performance in the US and UK remains resilient, while demand in other regions is stagnant. The decline in the US consumer confidence index has not yet impacted brand and upstream performance, primarily due to growth being driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][4][21] - Vietnam's footwear and apparel exports improved significantly in December, while China continues to face pressure. The upstream manufacturing sector is expected to have stronger earnings certainty in the first half of 2026, with a clear direction for recovery in the downstream sports supply chain. Brand apparel revenues are expected to fluctuate in Q4 2025, with profitability anticipated to recover in 2026 [2][5][29] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In December, the revenue performance of footwear manufacturers showed a year-on-year decline, with specific companies reporting: - Yuanyuan Group: -3.7% YoY, -1.3 percentage points MoM - Fengtai: -0.6% YoY, +11.2 percentage points MoM - Zhijiang International: -2.8% YoY, -5.9% MoM - Yuchi-KY: -2.2% YoY, -8.8% MoM - For apparel manufacturers: - Ruhong: -3.6% YoY, -5.1% MoM - Juyang Industrial: -9.2% YoY, -9.7% MoM - Guangyue: +9.7% YoY, -22.1% MoM [4][16][29] Demand Analysis - Retail performance in December showed resilience in the US and UK, while other regions experienced stagnation. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, which has not yet reflected in brand and upstream performance. The growth is mainly driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][21][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream manufacturing, as the performance in the first half of 2026 is expected to be more certain. The recovery direction of the sports supply chain is clear. Key recommended stocks include: - New Australia Holdings, Crystal International, Shenzhou International, and Yuanyuan Group - Attention should also be given to high-elasticity stocks like Nobon and Jeya, as well as undervalued stocks with strong safety margins like Taihua New Materials and Lutai A [5][29][30]