丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 望远镜系列 36 之 Amer Sports FY2025Q4 经营 跟踪：收入保持强劲，FY2026 指引谨慎 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FY2025Q4（2025/10/1-2025/12/31）Amer Sports 实现营收 21.0 亿美元，同比+28%（固定汇 率下同比+26%），收入表现超预期（彭博一致预期 20.0 亿美元），毛利率同比+1.6pct 至 57.7%， 营业利润同比+18%至 2.3 亿美元，营业利润率同比-0.9pct 至 10.9%。调整后 EBITDA 同比 +24%至 3.6 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 利润率同比-0.6pct 至 17.1%。调整后归母净利润同比 +95%至 1.8 亿美元，调整后归母净利率同比+2.8pct 至 8.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 %% %% %% %% ...

其次，这是企业对以人工智能（AI）为代表的技术革命压力的战略回应。有分析指出，企业正越来越 多地讨论利用AI降低劳动力成本。从亚马逊、微软的技术部门调整，到耐克为加快自动化而裁员，再 到社交媒体公司Pinterest为"优先发展AI驱动的产品"而削减人力，无不显示企业正将资源从部分传统岗 位，重新配置到面向未来的技术赛道。AI驱动效率提升、重塑岗位结构的趋势已十分清晰。 再次，宏观政策环境正促使企业"瘦身健体"。为遏制通胀而维持的高利率环境，以及贸易政策的不确定 性，持续推高企业运营成本与预期压力。在此背景下，企业倾向于采取保守策略，通过精简架构、聚焦 高利润核心业务来提升抗风险能力。例如，UPS在裁员的同时，宣布将更多资源投向医疗物流、供应链 解决方案等利润率更高的板块。这实质上是企业在复杂宏观环境下的一次主动性战略收缩与业务聚焦。 有分析认为，目前整体裁员规模与疫情前相比并未异常偏高。美国劳工部数据显示，尽管裁员消息频 传，但美国失业率仍维持在4.4％的相对低位。 然而，这场结构性调整带来的"阵痛"不容忽视。当前，美国劳动力市场虽保持缓慢增长，但长期失业问 题日益凸显。数据显示，美国2025年12月的平均 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - In FY2026Q3 (September 28, 2025 - December 27, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $2.88 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 2% after excluding the impact of Dickies. This performance exceeded market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][6] - The gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 57.0%, primarily due to effective cost control offsetting tariff impacts [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: Revenue performance met expectations, with Vans under pressure but showing growth in e-commerce. For FY2026Q3, revenue for Vans/The North Face/Timberland/Other brands was down 10%/up 5%/up 5%/up 4% to $558 million/$1.36 billion/$570 million/$392 million respectively [7] - **By Region**: The Americas showed strong performance, while Greater China continued to be a drag. Revenue for the Americas/EMEA/APAC regions was up 6%/down 3%/down 4% to $1.54 billion/$929 million/$408 million respectively, with Greater China down 6% [7] - **By Channel**: E-commerce drove growth, while wholesale channels faced slight pressure. Revenue for DTC/wholesale channels was up 3%/down 1% to $1.63 billion/$1.25 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 10% [7] Inventory Situation - As of FY2026Q3, the company's inventory amount was down 8% year-over-year to $1.66 billion, indicating manageable inventory levels [8] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q4, the company expects revenue to be flat to up 2% year-over-year, with gross margin expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Adjusted operating profit is projected to be between $10 million and $30 million [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - December orders for sports footwear and apparel showed a month-on-month decline, indicating that the overall industry has not yet reached an inflection point. Retail performance in the US and UK remains resilient, while demand in other regions is stagnant. The decline in the US consumer confidence index has not yet impacted brand and upstream performance, primarily due to growth being driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][4][21] - Vietnam's footwear and apparel exports improved significantly in December, while China continues to face pressure. The upstream manufacturing sector is expected to have stronger earnings certainty in the first half of 2026, with a clear direction for recovery in the downstream sports supply chain. Brand apparel revenues are expected to fluctuate in Q4 2025, with profitability anticipated to recover in 2026 [2][5][29] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In December, the revenue performance of footwear manufacturers showed a year-on-year decline, with specific companies reporting: - Yuanyuan Group: -3.7% YoY, -1.3 percentage points MoM - Fengtai: -0.6% YoY, +11.2 percentage points MoM - Zhijiang International: -2.8% YoY, -5.9% MoM - Yuchi-KY: -2.2% YoY, -8.8% MoM - For apparel manufacturers: - Ruhong: -3.6% YoY, -5.1% MoM - Juyang Industrial: -9.2% YoY, -9.7% MoM - Guangyue: +9.7% YoY, -22.1% MoM [4][16][29] Demand Analysis - Retail performance in December showed resilience in the US and UK, while other regions experienced stagnation. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, which has not yet reflected in brand and upstream performance. The growth is mainly driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][21][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream manufacturing, as the performance in the first half of 2026 is expected to be more certain. The recovery direction of the sports supply chain is clear. Key recommended stocks include: - New Australia Holdings, Crystal International, Shenzhou International, and Yuanyuan Group - Attention should also be given to high-elasticity stocks like Nobon and Jeya, as well as undervalued stocks with strong safety margins like Taihua New Materials and Lutai A [5][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

研究报告 Research Report 15 Jan 2026 李宁 LI NING (2331 HK) 4Q25 营运表现点评：4Q25 流水符合预期，上调 25 年净利率指引 4Q25 Operating Review: GMV in Line with Expectations; 25E Net Profit Margin Guidance Raised [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$19.55 目标价 HK$22.30 HTI ESG 0.8-2.2-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$50.53bn / US$6.48bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$42.39mn 发行股票数目 2,585mn 自由流通股 (%) 86% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$20.28-HK$13.96 注：现价 HK$19.55 为 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3, the company achieved revenue of $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.48 billion) [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily impacted by rising tariffs, increased discounts, and foreign exchange losses [2][6] - Operating profit margin fell by 3.5 percentage points to 17.0%, while net profit decreased by 13% to $310 million, with a net profit margin of 12.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, FY2025Q3 revenue for the U.S./North America/Greater China was $1.38 billion/-2% /$1.73 billion/-3% /$510 million/+42%, with Greater China benefiting from e-commerce growth and offline store expansion, while North America faced pressure due to weak store traffic, declining average transaction value, and lower conversion rates [7] - By channel, FY2025Q3 revenue from direct sales/e-commerce was $1.21 billion/+$0.107 billion/+13%, with direct sales growth slowing sequentially, while e-commerce maintained strong growth [7] - By category, FY2025Q3 revenue for women's/men's/other products was $1.64 billion/+6% /$600 million/+8% /$320 million/+12%, showing steady performance across categories [7] Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 11% year-on-year to $2 billion, with expectations for unit inventory growth in FY2026Q4 and dollar inventory growth in double digits year-on-year [12] - The company slightly raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue of $10.962 to $11.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (previous guidance was $10.85 to $11 billion, a 2% to 4% increase) [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple and board member of Nike, has increased his stake in Nike by purchasing approximately $2.95 million worth of shares, signaling strong confidence in the company's future value [1][3][5] Group 1: Stock Purchase Details - Cook acquired 50,000 shares of Nike at an average price of $58.97 per share, totaling an investment of about $2.95 million [3] - Following this purchase, Cook's total holdings in Nike reached 105,480 shares, with a market value exceeding $6.04 million based on the closing price on December 23 [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - The announcement of Cook's stock purchase led to a 4.66% increase in Nike's stock price, closing at $60.01 on December 24, with a total market capitalization of $88.707 billion [3][4] Group 3: Insider Confidence - This marks the first time Cook has used personal funds to buy Nike shares, which is typically viewed as a strong signal of insider confidence in the company's prospects [5] - On the day before Cook's purchase, another board member, Robert Swan, also bought shares, indicating a trend of executives investing in the company to reinforce market confidence [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple and board member of Nike, has begun purchasing Nike stock, which has led to a significant increase in Nike's stock price by over 5% on December 24 [3][5]. Group 1: Stock Purchase Details - Tim Cook invested approximately $2.95 million (around 21 million RMB) to buy 50,000 shares of Nike at an average price of $58.97 per share, bringing his total holdings to 105,480 shares valued at over $604,000 (over 4.2 million RMB) based on the closing price [4][5]. - This marks the first time Cook has used personal funds to buy Nike stock in the open market since joining the board in 2005, indicating strong confidence in the company's future value [5]. Group 2: Management Actions - On December 22, Robert Swan, another board member and former CEO of Intel, also purchased 8,691 shares of Nike at an average price of $57.54 per share [6]. - The recent purchases by key executives are seen as a strategy to reinforce management's alignment with the company's interests and to boost market confidence amid a period of low market sentiment affecting Nike's stock price [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its e-commerce and live-streaming sales channels, aiming for online sales to exceed 30% of total revenue by 2025, leveraging national policies to boost consumer spending [1] Group 1: E-commerce Strategy - The company is focusing on developing live social e-commerce and has achieved good results in e-commerce operations and live streaming [1] - Future plans include expanding and nurturing new brands while deepening cooperation with existing brands to drive growth in e-commerce channels [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Opportunities - The company intends to seize opportunities from national policies aimed at boosting consumption and will integrate military-civilian fusion strategies [1] - There is a focus on creating civilian consumer products with military-grade quality control systems, promoting synergy between military products and e-commerce traffic [1]