11月21日晚，第十五届全国运动会在粤港澳大湾区璀璨的夜色中落下帷幕。这场跨越粤港澳三地举办， 为期12天的体育盛会，不仅展现了中国运动健儿的蓬勃生机，更以体育为纽带，推动大湾区协同发展。 据统计，截至11月16日，本届全运会市场开发收入(包括赞助、捐赠、特许经营、门票)达到18.4亿元， 广州和深圳共接待游客总量1804.9万人次，旅游消费金额分别同比增长15.33%和24.48%，展现赛事活动 对文旅消费的强劲拉动。 本届全运会设竞技比赛项目34个大项419个小项、群众赛事活动23个大项166个小项，共计吸引14252名 专业运动员和约1.1万名健身爱好者的参与，真正将体育赛事延伸到民间，绘就一幅"全民全运"的生动 画卷。 企业投身赛事，一方面是借助赛事巨大流量进行品牌曝光，强化公众对品牌的认知；另一方面则是通过 体育赛事推广实现产品"破圈"，触达不同年龄、地域、行业的受众。 从举办城市来看，体育赛事举办期间，相关人流、物流、资金流、信息流高度集中，对所在城市的旅 游、餐饮、住宿、交通、零售等产业起到强大的辐射和拉动作用。2025年"苏超"实现"1元门票带动7.3 元周边消费"的显著杠杆效应，充分证明了赛 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Tabo (滔搏) in the retail sector, emphasizing its strong retail capabilities and high dividend payouts to investors [4][5] - The report projects Tabo's revenue and net profit for FY2025 to FY2027, indicating a slight decline in revenue but a recovery in net profit growth by FY2027 [4][5] Company Overview - Tabo is identified as the largest sports retail and service platform in China, collaborating with major brands such as Nike and Adidas [4] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7% in FY2025 and a projected decline of 6% in FY2026H1, with net profit dropping by 42% and 10% respectively [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Tabo are set at 946 billion, 953 billion, and 1,005 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 5.5% [4] - The net profit estimates are 37.1 billion, 52.8 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of -8.7%, 42.4%, and 15.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Tabo, citing its robust dividend payout history of 107.3% since its IPO in 2019 and a current cash position of 2.54 billion RMB [5] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for FY2026 is 14.6, with a dividend yield of 7% [5] Industry Context - The report discusses the broader retail environment, noting challenges such as fluctuating consumer demand and the need for effective e-commerce strategies [5] - It emphasizes the importance of Tabo's strong brand partnerships and retail efficiency in maintaining its competitive edge in the market [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent provocative remarks by Japanese politicians on various Japanese industries, particularly those reliant on the Chinese market, leading to significant stock price declines and potential market share losses in sectors such as retail, automotive, and tourism [3][12]. Automotive Industry - Japanese automotive brands, including Lexus, Toyota, and Subaru, are increasingly dependent on the Chinese market, with Lexus imports reaching 138,412 units in the first nine months of the year, a 4% increase, but showing a declining trend over the past four years [3][4]. - Toyota's imports fell by 5% year-on-year, with total imports around 17,700 units from March to September [5]. - Nissan and its luxury brand Infiniti are experiencing poor sales, with monthly sales around 100 units in China [6]. - The market share of Japanese automakers in China has dropped to 11.2%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from 2023, with Toyota's sales down 6.9% to 1.776 million units, Honda down 30.9% to 852,000 units, and Nissan down 12.2% to 696,000 units [7][8]. Consumer Goods and Retail - Japanese retail and consumer goods companies, such as Shiseido, saw stock prices drop significantly, with Shiseido's stock falling by 11% due to the political climate [3]. - ASICS, a well-known Japanese sports brand, reported a sales scale of approximately 5 billion yuan in China for 2024, with a growth rate of nearly 30% [10]. Tourism and Alcohol Industry - The tourism sector is heavily impacted, with Chinese tourists accounting for a significant portion of visitors to Japan, contributing to a consumption expenditure of 1.73 trillion yen [12]. - Japanese whiskey imports to China increased by 41.9% in the first eight months of 2025, with a total import value of 24.36 million USD [11]. Home Appliances - Japanese home appliance exports to China have been declining, with imports dropping from 1.016 billion USD in 2022 to 708 million USD in 2024 [9].

Group 1: Japanese Automotive Industry in China - Japanese automotive brands are experiencing a decline in competitiveness in the Chinese market, with potential further market share shrinkage if the Japanese government does not correct its course [1][3] - The market share of Japanese automakers in China has dropped to 11.2% in 2024, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from 2023, with major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan facing significant sales declines [3] - Toyota's sales in China for 2024 are projected at 1.776 million units, down 6.9%, while Honda's sales have plummeted by 30.9% to approximately 852,000 units, marking the lowest level since 2014 [3] Group 2: Impact of Political Relations - The deterioration of Sino-Japanese political relations, influenced by provocative statements from Japanese politicians, is expected to adversely affect Japanese industries reliant on the Chinese market, including automotive, alcohol, and tourism [1][8] - Analysts suggest that if political tensions continue, Japanese automotive exports and local sales in China will be significantly impacted [3][4] Group 3: Japanese Consumer Goods and Retail - Japanese retail and consumer goods companies are seeing stock price declines due to their reliance on Chinese consumers, with Shiseido's stock dropping by 11% following political tensions [1] - The import of Japanese household appliances to China has been decreasing, with a drop from $1.016 billion in 2022 to an estimated $708 million in 2024 [5] Group 4: Japanese Alcohol and Tourism - Japan's whiskey imports to China have shown significant growth, with a 41.9% increase in import value in the first eight months of 2025, amounting to $2.436 million [6] - Chinese tourists are a major consumer of Japanese sake, with exports to China growing by 495.9% over the past decade, making China the largest export market for Japanese sake [7] Group 5: Economic Impact of Reduced Tourism - A significant reduction in Chinese tourists visiting Japan could lead to a 0.36% decrease in Japan's GDP, equating to an estimated economic loss of 2.2 trillion yen (approximately 101.16 billion yuan) [9]

Core Insights - Meituan Flash Sale reported record highs in transaction volume, number of users, and per capita spending during the "Double 11" shopping festival from October 31 to November 11, with nearly 400 product categories seeing over 100% year-on-year growth [1] - High-priced products are driving a nearly 30% increase in per capita spending, with over 800 brands also experiencing more than 100% sales growth [1] - The introduction of the "Brand Official Flagship Lightning Warehouse" has led to a nearly 400% increase in overall sales for hundreds of brand flagship stores compared to pre-"Double 11" levels [1] Product Category Trends - The shopping behavior during "Double 11" reflects a clear trend towards "all categories, new categories, and high-priced items," with traditional and fresh product categories seeing explosive sales [1] - Specific high-demand items include mobile air conditioners, sports cameras, jade, gold, sports apparel, coffee machines, gaming consoles, platinum, and optical glasses, all experiencing over tenfold year-on-year sales growth [1] Flash Warehouse Performance - The Meituan Flash Warehouse has seen significant growth across all retail categories, with 3C home appliances sales increasing nearly 500%, and liquor and baby toys sales growing by 300% [2] - Notable sales increases in the liquor category include a nearly 400% rise in overall sales, with Moutai sales growing over 600% and other brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Jian Nan Chun seeing over 500% growth [2] - In the baby formula segment, sales for brands like Friso and Aptamil have increased by over 100% and nearly 300%, respectively [2] Retailer Performance - Multiple chain retailers have reported explosive sales during "Double 11," with Midea's store sales increasing over 30 times, and other retailers like Mingming Hen Mang and Zhongbai Electric seeing sales growth of over 20 times [2]

Industry Overview - Taiwan's NOR Flash storage manufacturer Winbond indicated a 50% increase in NOR Flash usage due to the rising demand from AI servers transitioning from HBM3E to HBM4, with plans to raise NOR Flash prices by up to 30% in Q1 next year [3] - The AIOT sector is experiencing rapid growth, as evidenced by the performance of major domestic listed companies, indicating a clear upward trend in storage demand over the next two years [3] Advanced Manufacturing - CATL has made significant supply chain moves, including a framework agreement with Jiangyuan Technology to secure a minimum capacity of 626,000 tons and strategic investments in Tianhua New Energy to ensure lithium salt supply [7] - In October, battery production increased by 22.4% month-on-month, with utilization rates nearing 90%. CATL reported a saturated energy storage capacity with a production of approximately 180 GWh in Q3, maintaining a utilization rate above 90% [7] - The asset expenditure growth for CATL and other companies in the sector indicates a strong commitment to expanding capacity and innovation, suggesting a new cycle of prosperity for lithium batteries and related industries [7] Consumer Sector - On Running reported a Q2 net sales of 749.2 million Swiss francs, a 32% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 61.5% [9] - The company adjusted its full-year sales guidance to 2.91 billion Swiss francs, expecting a growth of at least 31% year-on-year [9] - Brooks, a professional running brand, achieved a 17% sales growth in Q3, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, supported by strong overseas market expansion [9] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are expected to continue their upward trend, with silver showing stronger rebounds than gold due to easing market liquidity and a decline in the US dollar index [11][12] - The increasing proportion of gold reserves held by global central banks and the net inflow of funds into physical gold ETFs reflect growing concerns over dollar credit and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - Silver's recent strong performance is attributed to its relatively low gold-silver ratio and low COMEX exchange inventories, suggesting continued strength in the silver market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The sports footwear and apparel manufacturing sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with potential recovery in downstream demand and benefits for leading companies if Nike's performance rebounds in the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Crystal International (02232) shares increased by 8.81%, reaching HKD 7.29, while Shenzhou International (02313) shares rose by 5.1%, reaching HKD 71.15 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Short-term recovery in downstream demand for the sports footwear and apparel manufacturing industry is anticipated, with strong competitiveness among leading companies and an expanding customer base [1] - The long-term market potential for the sports footwear and apparel industry is significant, with high industry prosperity and steady growth expected in future performance [1] Group 3: Export Challenges - In October, China's textile and apparel export value was USD 22.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 13%, with textile and apparel exports at USD 11.3 billion and USD 11 billion, respectively, reflecting declines of 9% and 16% [1] - The recent announcement by the U.S. to cancel additional tariffs on China may lead to gradual recovery in the export chain, positively impacting the sports manufacturing and non-woven fabric sectors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a stable outlook for textile manufacturing and a positive trend for gold and jewelry sectors [3]. Core Insights - Textile manufacturing is expected to gradually improve due to stable overseas demand and low inventory levels, despite short-term production efficiency issues and order delays from existing clients [7][11]. - Brand apparel is facing pressure due to weak domestic consumption, with only a few companies showing positive performance through strong product and channel strategies [7][38]. - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing high growth driven by low base effects, rising gold prices, and product structure upgrades, with leading brands showing significant revenue growth [7][49]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing - Overseas demand remains stable, with low inventory levels in the U.S. indicating a healthy supply chain [12]. - Major global brands like NIKE are seeing recovery after two years of channel optimization, with orders expected to improve as major sporting events approach in 2026 [11][18]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Yuyuan Group, and others with Southeast Asian production capabilities [34]. Brand Apparel - The performance of brand apparel companies is generally under pressure, with most reporting low single-digit revenue growth and declining profits [38]. - Notable exceptions include Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai, which reported significant revenue and profit increases due to product expansion and multi-channel strategies [38]. - Companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Li Ning are recommended for their positive brand momentum and strategic changes [48]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a 11.5% increase in retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and product upgrades [49]. - Leading brands such as Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long reported substantial revenue growth, with Chao Hong Ji's revenue increasing by nearly 50% in Q3 2025 [54]. - Investment recommendations focus on brands with strong market positioning and ongoing product and channel upgrades, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji [67].

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of streetball player Deng Dan, who aims to promote warmth and community through basketball rather than focusing on commercial gains [1][4] - Deng Dan has created a free streetball venue called NICEID in Dongguan, where he organizes grassroots basketball events to foster connections among players [1][2] Group 1: Personal Background and Journey - Deng Dan grew up in a mining family in Hunan and developed a passion for basketball, inspired by local workers and NBA star Allen Iverson [1] - After dropping out of school at 17, he moved to Dongguan for work, where basketball became a crucial part of his life, helping him cope with the challenges of daily labor [1][2] Group 2: Impact of Basketball in Dongguan - In 2004, having basketball skills significantly improved job prospects in Dongguan, with many business partnerships formed through the sport [2] - Deng Dan returned to Dongguan in 2014, motivated by the city's vibrant basketball culture, and later founded a basketball-related brand and a free streetball court [2][3] Group 3: Community Engagement and Social Value - Deng Dan organizes over 20 events annually, attracting around 10,000 participants each time, emphasizing that streetball is more about self-expression and social interaction than competition [2] - The free basketball courts are funded through the sales of his brand, and Deng Dan also donates sports equipment to rural schools, highlighting his commitment to social value over economic gain [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6] Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with the jewelry sector showing better growth compared to clothing [14] - The domestic sportswear market is expected to maintain long-term growth resilience despite short-term fluctuations in offline sales [1] - The report highlights the importance of inventory management and the impact of promotional events on sales performance [1][2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Sports Footwear and Apparel - The sports footwear and apparel sector showed weaker performance in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 but still outperformed the overall apparel market [1] - Offline sales for domestic sports brands remain weak, while e-commerce channels are performing better [1] - Inventory levels for domestic sports brands increased in Q3 due to preparations for the National Day holiday and Double Eleven sales [1] - Adidas reported a 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Greater China for Q3 2025, while Nike's sales in the region declined [1][18] 2. Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector showed improvement in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit growth of 3.1% and 23.2% respectively, driven by a low base effect [2] - The home textile segment benefited from product updates, while the fashion apparel category faced weak demand due to low consumer confidence [2] - The report anticipates continued reasonable expense management and stable profit growth for some companies in Q4 2025 [2] 3. Textile Manufacturing - Revenue for key textile manufacturing companies remained relatively stable, with a slight decline in net profit [3] - Companies with different customer structures showed varied performance, with some like Huayi Group achieving a 7% revenue growth by expanding their client base [3] - The report suggests that as inventory levels normalize, there may be a recovery in orders from upstream manufacturing companies [3] 4. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector experienced performance differentiation, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Companies with fewer stores or a direct sales model reported excellent revenue growth, with some like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long achieving revenue increases of 28.3% and 29.3% respectively [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product and channel capabilities in the jewelry sector [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Chow Tai Fook, highlighting their respective PE ratios for 2025 [4][9]