Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have led to significant reactions in the global oil tanker industry, with operators avoiding Middle Eastern routes and halting new bookings, creating a new wave of volatility in the energy market [1][3]. - The oil tanker industry is facing structural risks, including a surge in crude oil transportation costs, with VLCC rates from the Middle East to Asia increasing by over 20% to Worldscale 55 [3]. - The cost of clean product tankers has risen, with transportation quotes for refined oil from the Oman Gulf increasing from $3.3 million to $4.5 million, reflecting heightened war risk premiums and operational risks [3]. - Insurance costs have escalated, with tankers passing through Gulf waters facing additional war risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel, significantly raising overall transportation costs [3]. - Major shipping companies, such as Frontline, have suspended all new bookings in the Middle East, indicating that trade will become less efficient and safety will come at a cost [3]. Group 2 - The current market is responding not only to political statements but also to the actual actions of transporters, insurers, and port announcements, with shipping companies reacting faster to risks than governments [4]. - The "asymmetric threats" such as electronic interference and GPS deception are posing greater challenges to maritime operations, prompting insurers and port managers to reassess safety levels [4]. - The energy demand in India is increasing, leading to close monitoring of shipping dynamics and fuel price fluctuations, indicating that changes in Middle Eastern shipping will directly impact the Asian economic region [4]. - The global energy market is entering a structurally volatile period dominated by "transportation risks," where even the absence of direct attacks can lead to significant market reactions if shipping is disrupted [4][5].

由于中东冲突迄今避免了对原油生产的干扰，且据《华尔街日报》报道，伊朗已私下表示愿意与以色列缓和敌对关系后，国际油价周一下跌。 在该报称德黑兰方面表示，只要美国不加入攻击，他们对重返谈判桌持开放态度后，一度在开盘时飙升的WTI原油大跌2%，布伦特原油日内暴跌4%。 CIBC私人财富集团的高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示，"问题是，以色列真的会同意吗？不过，这确实表明，关于霍尔木兹海峡的讨论可能夸大了。" 当前油价仍远高于袭击开始前的水平。在上周五以色列空袭开始后的交易日中，原油价格上涨超过7%，期货和期权交易量均创下历史记录。华尔街分析师 们也迅速指出了冲突可能带来的风险。 尽管如此，石油市场仍然紧张不安。继上周对伊朗核设施及军事领导层发动袭击后，以色列又攻击了其南帕尔斯天然气田，迫使一个生产平台停产。然而， 关键的原油出口基础设施至今幸免于难，至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡也未发生堵塞。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场表示，双方都已将能源基础设施作为目标，这一事实显示出明显的担忧理由，其中关键的出口枢纽哈尔克岛和伊拉克的油田都可能 面临风险。摩根士丹利则将原油价格预测上调了每桶10美元，理由是冲突带来的风险增加。 ...