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“反内卷”行情持续 期债承压
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-11 23:29
Group 1 - Recent decline in government bond futures prices, with 10-year government bond yields rising above 1.7% due to increased market risk appetite driven by strong commodity prices and improved economic data [1][2] - Strong performance in commodity prices, particularly polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, influenced by "anti-involution" policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [2] - July PPI showed a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, the first contraction reduction since March, driven by stabilizing prices in coal and steel industries [3] Group 2 - July's import and export data exceeded expectations, with total trade reaching $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, supported by strong exports to emerging markets despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [4] - The central bank's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with net withdrawals totaling 932.6 billion yuan, while maintaining liquidity to support short-term bond prices [5] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence market dynamics, leading to a divergence in bond prices and increased pressure on long-term bonds following the resumption of VAT on government and financial bonds [5]