2026年2月20日，美国最高法院作出裁决，认定特朗普政府之前依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的大规模关税是违法的，理由是这部法律根本没授权总统 有这个权力。相当于特朗普自认为"合理"的关税政策，被司法系统泼了一盆冷水，直接被判了"无效"。 面对这个判决，特朗普那是相当不服气，当天就在白宫记者会上炸了锅，说了一肚子硬气话。他直言，最高法院的裁决就是"不合理的阻碍"，但他有的是办 法应对，紧接着就抛出了重磅消息：要签署行政令，对全球商品加征10%的进口关税，为期150天，还说这个新关税是依据《1974年贸易法》第122条发布 的，完全合法。 除此之外，特朗普还嘴硬表示，美国所有以"国家安全"为由征收的关税，以及之前依据另外两部法律征收的关税，都会继续有效。他甚至承认，这次判决会 引发一场旷日持久的法律缠斗，光是关于要不要向美国企业退还之前征收的数十亿美元关税，可能就要打五年官司，但即便如此，他也不会放弃关税手段。 很多人可能会疑惑，特朗普身为总统，难道真能一言九鼎，想加关税就加关税？答案很明确：不能。这次最高法院的判决，其实就是最直接的证明——美国 不是特朗普的"一言堂"，而是三权分立的国家，总统的权力要受到国会 ...

在美国最高法院裁定特朗普不能利用1977年的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收进口税后，他可 以依靠其他替代性法规来尝试重建"关税墙"。 特朗普引用该法来证明其针对美国贸易伙伴广泛征收"对等"关税，对中国、加拿大和墨西哥单独征税是 合理的，但最高法院认为这超越了他的职权范围。 该裁决使特朗普在第二任期内推出的很大一部分关税失效，但他仍有其他方式可以引入进口税。虽然宪 法赋予国会征税和收税的权力，但立法者已过多项法规将部分权力授予行政部门。 除了IEEPA外， 特朗普还有哪些选择？ 他至少有五个备选方案可以以不同的方式征收关税。总的来说，这些替代方案带有更多的限制和程序性 约束，意味着特朗普立即征收关税并随心所欲设定税率的余地较小。 | | Trump's Statutory Authority to Impose Tariffs | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | The Supreme Court said that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act | | | | | cannot ...

美国最新贸易数据显示，12月贸易逆差明显扩大，为关税政策反复、波动加剧的一年画上句号。 智通财经APP获悉，美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，12月商品和服务贸易逆差扩大至703亿美元，高 于前一个月，也远超媒体调查中经济学家给出的555亿美元的预期中值。全年来看，美国2025年贸易逆 差累计达到9015亿美元，仍处于自1960年有记录以来的高位区间。 从结构上看，12月贸易逆差的扩大主要源于进口激增与出口回落。当月进口总额环比增长3.6%，而商 品和服务出口则下降1.7%。其中，计算机配件和机动车进口的增加尤为明显；出口下降则主要反映黄 金对外发运量减少。 回顾2025年，美国贸易数据月度波动显著。分析人士指出，这与总统特朗普持续释放关税政策信号密切 相关。面对潜在的关税上调，美国进口商加快囤货节奏，尤其是黄金和医药产品的进口在不同月份之间 出现剧烈起伏，企业试图在更高关税生效前提前完成采购。 按国家划分，美国对台湾地区的贸易逆差去年扩大至1468亿美元，创下历史新高；对中国的贸易逆差则 大幅收窄至约2020亿美元，为20多年来最低水平，反映出对中国商品加征高额关税所产生的影响。与此 同时，美国对墨西哥的贸易逆 ...

Core Insights - The EU's exports to the U.S. remained stable last year despite the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - Increased duties led Chinese businesses to seek new customers within the EU [1] Summary by Categories Trade Dynamics - EU exports to the U.S. were resilient in the face of tariffs [1] - Chinese companies are adapting to the tariff environment by targeting the EU market for new business opportunities [1]

一是提升国际合作效能。支持山东省参与国际标准治理，对主导制修订高水平国际标准、承担国际标准 化技术机构秘书处的给予最高50万元奖补；拓展中国标准海外应用场景，推动检测认证结果国际互认， 鼓励检测认证机构境外布局。 记者张召旭通讯员刘昭 近日，山东省市场监督管理局、省工业和信息化厅、省财政厅、省商务厅、青岛海关、济南海关等六部 门联合印发《山东省质量基础设施促进进出口的若干措施》(以下简称《若干措施》)，聚焦进出口质量 瓶颈，强化质量基础设施技术支撑、合作互认、品牌培育作用，助力山东省企业提升国际竞争力，推动 高水平对外开放。 质量基础设施作为国际贸易的"通行证"、产业升级的"压舱石"，涵盖标准、计量、检测认证、知识产权 等核心要素，是服务进出口贸易、破解质量瓶颈的重要支撑。《若干措施》围绕五大重点领域，推出16 条具体举措，构建全方位政策支持体系。 二是赋能企业产品出海。完善"好品山东"培育体系，支持企业海外知识产权和商标布局，对符合条件的 外贸企业开展的境外专利申请、商标注册及资质认证等费用给予支持。助力国产计量器具出口，优化 CCC免办服务流程，降低企业进出口成本。 三是强化技术服务支撑。加快引进国际知名 ...

"守信者"享便利的鲜明导向，使广大进出口企业对申请AEO资质十分踊跃。企业信用培育是构建以信用 为基础的新型监管机制的重要环节，贯穿海关信用管理的整个过程。自AEO制度在中国实施以来，海 关就创造性地开展企业信用培育工作。在广东，黄埔海关创新打造广州东部AEO指导中心，关地协同 运用数字化、智能化技术，开展各类惠企政策宣讲和辅导，AEO企业提供"一对一"专属协调服务。截至 2025年12月底，黄埔海关已累计培育315家高级认证企业，这些企业以0.4%的企业数量占比贡献了辖区 50%以上的进出口额。 据介绍，海关将全力服务国家外贸发展大局，重点关注战略性新兴产业和未来产业，梳理外贸龙头企 业、产业链链主企业、新质生产力企业、"专精特新"中小企业名单，深化跨部门信用信息共享，建立并 动态更新AEO重点培育企业库，联合地方政府、行业协会开展辅导培训，不断拓展AEO政策普及面， 扩充AEO后备军，在保证AEO认证质量的前提下，帮扶更多企业获得AEO资质。 《光明日报》（2026年02月13日 10版） [ 责编：孙宗鹤 ] 光明日报北京2月12日电 记者张翼12日从海关总署获悉，为了更好助企惠企激发外贸主体活力，海关 ...

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 5%[1] - Nominal GDP increased by 4% for the entire year, while the GDP deflator index fell by 0.7%[1] - Net exports contributed approximately 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by resilient exports[1] Industrial and Service Production - Industrial production grew by 5.9% in 2025, slightly above the 5.8% growth in 2024[2] - The service sector maintained a high growth rate of 5.4%, up from 5.1% in the previous year[2] - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.4%, with significant contributions from integrated circuits and biopharmaceuticals[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 3.8%, lower than the previous year's decline of 3.2%[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power) decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%[2] - Public utility investments rose by 9.1%, with pipeline transportation investment increasing by 36%[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing fell by 8.7%, a smaller decline compared to nearly 13% in 2024[3] - New housing starts dropped by 20.3%, indicating ongoing supply-side adjustments[3] - Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%, with a widening decline compared to the previous year[3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year's growth rate[3] - The retail sales growth rate for home appliances and communication equipment reached 11% and 20.9%, respectively[3] - Automotive retail sales declined by 1.5%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer spending in this sector[3] Export Performance - Exports increased by 5.5% in 2025, maintaining resilience despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. by 20%[4] - Exports to Europe, ASEAN, and Africa grew by 8.4%, 13.4%, and 25.8%, respectively, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, highlighting that the burden of these tariffs primarily falls on American consumers rather than foreign exporters [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - A report from the Kiel Institute indicates that 96% of the increased tariff costs are borne by American consumers, while only 4% is absorbed by foreign exporters [3]. - The U.S. government collected $200 billion in additional tariff revenue last year, with projections of $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariff revenue by June of this year [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - The increase in tariffs is expected to lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S., with a potential rise in inflation pressure over time [4][5]. - The consumer price index in December was reported at 2.7%, slightly lower than the previous year's 2.9% [4]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The report suggests that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering their prices to maintain market balance, possibly due to finding alternative buyers or anticipating changes in U.S. tariff policies [5]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a decline in U.S. imports from India by 18% to 24%, and a significant reduction in exports from Germany to the U.S. [5]. Group 4: Legal and Political Context - The legality of Trump's broad taxation powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is currently under review by the U.S. Supreme Court [6].

北京大学国民经济研究中心 联系方式: gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 进、出口增速上行，中欧双边贸易修复进行中 进出口点评报告 A0306-20260115 | | 2025 年 | 北大国民经 济研究中心 | Wind 市 | 上期值 | 上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 12 月值 | 预测值 | 场预测 均值 | | 期值 | | 出口同比 (%) | 6.6 | -3.7 | 2.22 | ર .9 | 10.7 | | 进口同比 (%) | 5.7 | 0.4 | -0.28 | 1.9 | 1.0 | | 贸易差额 (亿美 元) | 1141.4 | 918 | 1054 | 1116.8 | 1048.4 | 课题组成员: | 点 | 蔡含篇 | | --- | --- | | ● 中欧贸易修复,出口额增速上行 | 陈丽娜 | | ● 中欧经贸修复叠加原油进口增加,进口 | 董希勇 | | 额增速继续上行 | 葛 酒 | | ● 未来展望:外部环境复杂多变,外贸增 | 李文博 | | ...

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached a historic high of 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 3.8% year-on-year increase, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In 2025, China's exports reached 26.99 trillion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, with high-tech products and "new three categories" products seeing increases of 13.2% and 27.1% respectively [1] - Self-branded product exports grew by 12.9%, with smartwatches and smart toys being popular in over 170 countries and regions [1] Group 2: Import Performance - China's imports totaled 18.48 trillion yuan in 2025, a 0.5% year-on-year increase, making it the world's second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years [2] - Since June of the previous year, imports have maintained year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months, with growth recorded from over 130 countries and regions [2] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Over 780,000 entities recorded imports and exports in 2025, with private enterprises driving a 7.1% increase in trade, accounting for 57.3% of total trade value [3] - The number of countries and regions trading with China reached 249, with significant trade growth with ASEAN, Central Asian countries, and the EU [3] Group 4: Regional Contributions - Seven provinces and cities, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, contributed over half of China's foreign trade growth, with the Greater Bay Area's trade surpassing 9 trillion yuan [3] - The Yangtze River Delta region saw significant exports in shipbuilding, marine engineering, and biomedicine, accounting for over half of the total export value in these categories [3] Group 5: Historical Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw China's cumulative import and export scale exceed 200 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 7.1% [4] - China's international market share for imports remained around 10%, while exports maintained over 14%, marking a successful conclusion to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]