凌晨突发！美联储释放重磅信号，全球市场一夜变天？ 2025年12月11日凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的议息会议声明如同一颗深水炸弹，引发全球金融市场剧烈震荡。 尽管年内第三次降息25个基点至3.5%-3.75%符合市场预期，但政策声明中释放的三大矛盾信号——"鹰鸽分裂"的投票结果、降息 路径的不确定性、通胀归因的争议——彻底打破了市场对"宽松周期延续"的幻想。全球股市、债市、汇市及大宗商品市场在政策 落地后上演"过山车"行情，一场由货币政策转向引发的全球资本重构已然拉开帷幕。 一、美联储政策转向：从"鸽派狂欢"到"分歧加剧" - 美股短期狂欢：道指盘中涨超1%，银行股指数飙升2.7%，科技股因估值修复预期上涨。但鲍威尔对通胀的鹰派措辞导致尾盘回 落，纳指涨幅收窄至0.55%。 - 新兴市场承压：美元指数跌至98.6下方，非美货币普遍走强，但外资回流新兴市场的持续性存疑。A股因人民币汇率企稳吸引部 分资金流入，但出口企业担忧人民币升值削弱竞争力。 2. 债市：美债收益率倒挂加深，流动性风险隐现 此次降息虽为2024年9月开启的宽松周期的延续，但19名FOMC委员中3人投出反对票的罕见分歧，暴露出美 ...

元旦"微度假"热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 应镓娴(分析师) | | | 021-23185645 | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 消费温和改善 2025.12.28 内需有 ...

"不过，对于持有美元存款或美元理财产品的居民来说，其资产以人民币计价会出现缩水。"东方出口企 业将面临直接压力金诚宏观首席分析师王青说。 人民币汇率走强将给企业经营带来哪些变化？ 王青介 绍，出口企业将面临直接压力，同时导致结汇时汇兑利润减少。相反，依赖进口原材料、零部件的制造 业企业则受益显著，汇率升值可直接降低进口成本，改善企业盈利状况。 "对于跨境投资企业来说，收 益率可能因汇兑因素打折扣。"中信证券首席经济学家明明说。 后续汇率走势如何？明明说，7.0关口作 为汇率多空分歧的关键点位，在人民币升破这一点位后，市场一致性预期已明显减弱，这也为汇率走势 增添了不确定性。 管涛认为，人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7.0这个关口反复波 动。（新华社） ...

美国商务部的数据显示，消费者支出增长3.5%，高于第二季度的2.5%。按照贡献度计算，个人消费支 出拉动当季经济增长2.39个百分点；但这一增速并不意味着需求驱动的加速足以支持经济预期的持续重 估。拉动GDP的另一动力来自于出口，净出口拉动当季经济增长1.59个百分点。政府消费支出和投资拉 动当季经济增长0.39个百分点；私人库存投资拖累当季经济增长0.22个百分点。 经济学家认为，美国三季度经济延续了增长势头，但受联邦政府"停摆"影响，四季度经济增长可能面临 压力并出现放缓。2025年全年经济增速或为2%甚至更低水平。 美国商务部23日公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长 4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增速。 美国商务部表示，三季度经济增速加快主要由于消费支出增长提速，以及出口和政府支出增加。数据显 示，当季占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长3.5%，政府消费支出和投资增幅为2.2%，出口增长 8.8%。反映企业投资状况的非住宅类固定资产投资当季仅增长2.8%，显著低于前一季度的7.3%。 乍一看，这一数据令人侧目。但是，金融市场却表现出格外的冷静。衡量美 ...

12月16日，黄埔海关发布最新数据显示：今年前11个月，东莞市外贸进出口总值1.44万亿元，规模创历史同期新高，稳居全国第五；进出口总值同比增长 14.3%，已连续20个月保持增长，增速居全国外贸万亿级城市首位。 其中，东莞市外贸出口规模8789.5亿元，增长8.7%；东莞市外贸进口规模5572.4亿元，增长24.3%。具体来看，前11个月，该市有进出口实绩的外贸企业 数量2.7万家，同比增加15.6%，已超2024年全年总量。其中，民营企业进出口9000亿元，同比增长20.9%。 解读：2024年，宁波年度外贸规模正式超过东莞，自21世纪以来首进全国前五。不过时隔仅半年，东莞就以16.5%的增速优势，再度反超宁波，夺回"外 贸第五城"之位，并保持强劲增长势头，在前11个月以14.3%的外贸增速，拿下了全国外贸万亿级城市增速第一。 具体来看，新兴市场是东莞外贸增长的重要动力之一。前11个月，东莞对全球200多个国家和地区有进出口贸易。其中，对54个国家和地区进出口同比增 长超50%。对共建"一带一路"国家进出口同比增长24.3%，占比达三成。对东盟进出口同比增长36.8%。 同时，作为制造业强市，东莞也在持续 ...

越南《越南经济》网站12月6日报道，据越南财政部统计局当日上午发布的数据，2025年前11个 月，越南货物进出口达8397.5亿美元，同比增长17.2%，超过2024年全年水平（7862.9亿美元）。贸易 顺差205.3亿美元（去年同期为243.8亿美元）。 美国是越南最大的出口市场，越南对美出口1386亿美元，对美贸易顺差1216亿美元，同比增长 27.5%。中国是越南最大的进口市场，自华进口1675亿美元，对华贸易逆差1043亿美元，同比增长 38.1%。 据统计，2025年前11个月，越南出口货物4301.4亿美元，同比增长16.1%。其中，国内企业出口 1024.1亿美元，同比下降1.7%，占出口总额的23.8%；外资企业（含原油）出口额3277.3亿美元，同比 增长23.1%，占出口总额的76.2%。从出口商品结构看，加工制成品出口占88.7%，农林产品占8.3%，水 产品占2.4%，燃料和矿产品占0.6%。 （原标题：前11个月越南货物进出口达8397.5亿美元，超2024年全年总额） 前11个月进口货物4096.1亿美元，同比增长18.4%，其中国内企业进口1284亿美元，增长1.7%；外 资企 ...

新华财经北京11月26日电日本政府在周三公布的月度报告中表示，尽管通胀持续存在，但消费者对经济 的信心正在复苏。在月度经济评估报告中，日本政府重申了谨慎乐观的看法，认为日本正在温和复苏， 同时警告美国贸易政策可能带来下行风险。日本内阁府的一位官员表示："消费者信心在4月（美国）关 税谈判开始时有所下降，但此后一直在恢复，目前正在继续复苏。" （文章来源：新华财经） 日本政府保持了对占经济一半以上的私人消费的看法，称其连续第三个月显示出"回升"的迹象。日本政 府下调了对进口的评估，还将国内企业价格预期从"持平"调整为"适度上涨"。 ...

Economic Performance - In October, China's GDP growth rate slowed to 4.2% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from September, significantly below the annual growth target[1] - Industrial added value dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%, marking a new low for the year[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 11.0% year-on-year, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decrease[1] Consumer Market Insights - Total retail sales of consumer goods slightly decreased to 2.9% year-on-year, but excluding automobiles, the growth rate rebounded to 4.0%[1] - Restaurant consumption growth significantly increased to 3.8%, indicating a recovery in the service sector[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.1 percentage points[1] Future Outlook - Positive factors are accumulating, with signs of structural recovery in consumption and a steady decline in the unemployment rate, suggesting sustained consumer demand[2] - Fiscal space remains ample, with fiscal deposits exceeding the average of the past three years by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, providing strong support for counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools has been completed, focusing on new economic sectors such as digital economy and artificial intelligence[2] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with potential weakening of policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[2]

Economic Overview - The national economy in October showed overall stability with a trend of steady progress, supported by strong leadership and effective implementation of policies [1][10] Industrial Production - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 4.5%, 4.9%, and 5.4% respectively [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points respectively [2] - From January to October, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a profit total of 53,732 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.2% increase [2] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services at 13.0% [3] - The overall service sector revenue increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to September, indicating robust performance [3] Retail Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [4] - Online retail sales grew by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [5] - Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [5] Trade Performance - In October, the total value of goods imports and exports was 37,028 billion yuan, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [7] - From January to October, the total trade value grew by 3.6%, with exports increasing by 6.2% [7] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8] - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.4 hours [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - **Credit Data**: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - **Money Supply**: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].