在发布会上，南方财经·21世纪经济报道记者提问：进出口商品质量安全与大家的生活密切相 关。请问在"十四五"时期，海关在保障进出口商品质量安全方面采取了哪些举措？有哪些进 展？ 海关总署副署长赵增连在会上回应表示，进出口商品质量安全是广大消费者十分关心的话题， 商品出入国门之际，海关严把质量安全关，主要是从"创机制、强监管、保安全、优服务"几个 方面做好相关工作。 一是以机制创新让风险防控更加高效。 海关建立了进出口商品质量安全风险防控监测体系， 如同"预警雷达"，实时关注境内外商品质量安全的风险信息，一旦发现风险，第一时间快速应 对处置。与美国、俄罗斯、欧盟等35个国家（地区）建立了商品质量安全信息共享机制，对内 与市场监管、工信、商务等部门建立了进出口缺陷产品协作处理机制，加强进出口商品质量安 全合作共治。 二是以强化监管让国门安全更有保障。 "十四五"以来，海关检验进出口商品900多万批，退运 不合格矿产品、再生金属1万多批。严禁洋垃圾入境，退运固体废物4000多批，立案侦办走私 废物刑事案件589起。开展口岸危险品综合整治，累计查发伪瞒报9000余起，检出不合格危险 品13万批，全力守护国门安全。 记者 ...

按美元计，7月进口数量指数与金额指数同比分别上升7.8%和1.8%，出口数量指数与金额指数同比 分别上升8.2%和4.3%。净商品交易条件指数同比升2.1%，连续25个月上涨，原因是进口价格降幅大于 出口价格；收入交易条件指数同比升10.5%，得益于净商品交易条件和出口数量指数双升。 韩国《韩联社》8月14日报道，韩国银行14日公布数据显示，受国际油价和韩元兑美元汇率双双上 涨影响，7月进口物价指数（以2020年为100，韩元计价，暂定值）为134.87，环比上升0.9%，结束自2 月以来连续五个月的下跌。原材料价格上涨1.5%，中间材、资本材及消费材分别上涨0.6%、0.5%和 0.5%。其中，甲基乙基酮、贵金属精炼品、闪存芯片、二次电池等涨幅明显。同期，韩元兑美元汇率 环比升0.6%，迪拜原油均价升2.3%。 出口物价指数同样结束连续四个月的下降，7月环比上升1.0%至128.19。农林水产品上涨4.2%，工 矿产品上涨1.0%，其中电脑、电子、光学器材，以及煤炭、石油产品等涨幅居前，冷冻水产品、柴 油、DRAM等涨幅显著。 （原标题：韩7月份进出口物价均上升） ...

Group 1 - Recent decline in government bond futures prices, with 10-year government bond yields rising above 1.7% due to increased market risk appetite driven by strong commodity prices and improved economic data [1][2] - Strong performance in commodity prices, particularly polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, influenced by "anti-involution" policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated capacity [2] - July PPI showed a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, the first contraction reduction since March, driven by stabilizing prices in coal and steel industries [3] Group 2 - July's import and export data exceeded expectations, with total trade reaching $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, supported by strong exports to emerging markets despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [4] - The central bank's monetary policy remains relatively loose, with net withdrawals totaling 932.6 billion yuan, while maintaining liquidity to support short-term bond prices [5] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence market dynamics, leading to a divergence in bond prices and increased pressure on long-term bonds following the resumption of VAT on government and financial bonds [5]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the United States is described as an outdated and misguided economic policy that harms trade partners while weakening domestic purchasing power, leading to a "lose-lose" situation and increasing uncertainty in the global economy [1] Group 1: Impact on Trade Partners - The new tariffs imposed by the U.S. will significantly impact bilateral trade between Ecuador and the U.S., with Ecuadorian shrimp products losing their competitive advantage in the U.S. market due to the new 15% tariff [1] - The trade war not only affects exporting countries but also has repercussions for importing countries, resulting in a dual loss scenario [1] Group 2: Effects on U.S. Economy - The trade war is expected to weaken the international competitiveness of the U.S. and systematically undermine the global economic influence built over the past century [1] - Increased tariffs will lead U.S. consumers to pay more for the same goods, thereby reducing their purchasing power [1] Group 3: Global Economic Uncertainty - The overall decline in U.S. consumer capacity will compel exporters to redirect their products to other countries, which may lead to an increase in global supply and a subsequent drop in prices, impacting the global supply chain [1] - The trade war is characterized as having no winners, only numerous victims across the global economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic provinces are emphasized as key players in stabilizing and driving national economic growth, contributing significantly to the overall GDP and demonstrating robust growth rates compared to the national average [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, six major economic provinces (Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Guangdong) achieved GDPs exceeding 3 trillion yuan, collectively contributing over 29.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.6% of the national total [1][2]. - Guangdong's GDP reached 68,725.4 billion yuan, representing over 10% of the national total, while Jiangsu's GDP was 66,967.8 billion yuan, narrowing the gap with Guangdong [2]. - The GDP growth rates for Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan were all above the national average of 5.3%, with respective growth rates of 5.8%, 5.7%, 5.7%, 5.6%, and 5.6% [2]. Group 2: Trade and Innovation - Guangdong led in foreign trade, achieving a total import and export value of 4.55 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.9% of the national total, with a contribution rate of 28% to national trade growth [4]. - Zhejiang's industrial output value increased by 7.6%, with high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors growing by 12.7% and 12.0%, respectively [4]. - Jiangsu's industrial output value grew by 7.4%, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 11.8%, indicating a shift towards higher quality economic growth [5]. Group 3: Policy and Future Directions - Economic provinces are implementing tailored strategies to boost domestic demand, with Sichuan focusing on consumer spending and Henan promoting consumption through new policies [7]. - Jiangsu aims to enhance new productive forces and improve market conditions, while Zhejiang plans to upgrade traditional industries and develop emerging sectors [7][8]. - The emphasis is on technological advancement and industrial transformation to maintain the provinces' leading roles in the national economy [8].

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's economy shows resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by strong export performance and improved local demand [1][2] - The GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 3.1% year-on-year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth [1] - Private consumption expenditure rebounded with a 1.9% increase year-on-year after four consecutive quarters of decline [1] Retail Sector - Retail sales value in June 2025 was estimated at HKD 30.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2] - Seasonally adjusted retail sales value in Q2 2025 rose by 0.3% compared to Q1 2025, while retail sales volume increased by 2.7% [2] - The retail sector is stabilizing, supported by rising employment income and a positive stock market [2] Trade and Exports - Total merchandise exports grew by 11.5% year-on-year, accelerating from 8.4% in Q1 2025 [1][3] - Merchandise imports also increased by 12.7%, higher than the 7.2% growth in Q1 2025 [1] Financial Market - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant activity with 42 IPOs raising over HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest half-year increase in history [3] Government Initiatives - The Hong Kong government is implementing measures to boost consumption, attract investment, and diversify markets to support economic growth [2][4] - New initiatives include the "New Industrial Acceleration Program" and "New Industrialization Subsidy Program" to support strategic industries [3][4] - The government is also consulting on legislation for digital asset trading and custody services to promote the digital asset market [4]

Group 1 - The tax imposed is not directly on countries like the EU, Japan, or China, but rather on American consumers, which could negatively impact political support if framed as a direct tax increase on consumers [1] - The purpose of the tax is to address fiscal shortfalls and the expanding U.S. debt gap, while being presented as a means to support American manufacturing and strengthen the country [3] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to lead to increased consumer prices and inflation in the U.S., as consumers will face higher costs for goods [3] Group 2 - Japan has negotiated a 15% tariff rate, which is seen as a favorable outcome compared to the initially threatened 25%-27.5% rate, and this has led to a lack of significant pushback from Japan [3] - South Korea is also expected to negotiate down to a 15% tariff rate, similar to Japan [4] - The U.S.-China temporary tariff situation includes a base rate of 10% with additional rates for specific goods, leading to comprehensive rates that can reach up to 245% for electric vehicles [4][5] Group 3 - Certain technology products, such as semiconductors, are exempt from tariffs, indicating a strategic approach to protect key industries [5] - The overall tariff burden on China is higher than that on the EU and Japan, which may not adversely affect the latter's exports to the U.S. and could even provide them with competitive advantages [5][6] - There is speculation that China may devalue its currency to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, although an argument is made that the yuan should appreciate to increase costs for U.S. consumers and contribute to inflation [7]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660,536 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[1] - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points from May[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June amounted to 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from May[1] Investment and Consumption - From January to June, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from January to May[1] - In June, the month-on-month growth of fixed asset investment was only 0.5%, a significant drop of 2.4 percentage points from May[12] - The decline in consumption was particularly pronounced in the catering sector, where growth plummeted from 5.9% in May to 0.9% in June[15] Trade and Employment - In June, the total import and export volume reached 38,527 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, including exports of 23,394 billion yuan, up 7.2%[1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in June remained stable at 5.0%, consistent with the previous month and the same month last year[16] - The export growth rate in June was 5.8%, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%[40]

Group 1 - The report from the Kasikorn Research Center indicates that if the US imposes a 36% tariff on Thai products, it will lead to a significant shrinkage in Thailand's export value in the second half of the year [1][2] - The new tariff rate announced by President Trump is set to take effect on August 1, and if no agreement is reached before this date, the tariff will be implemented [1] - The 36% tariff is expected to reduce Thailand's competitiveness in the US market, particularly for products such as transformers, printers, air conditioners, and shrimp products [1] Group 2 - The Kasikorn Research Center believes that higher tariffs compared to most countries will exert deeper pressure on Thai exports, negatively impacting foreign direct investment and leading to a further decline in private investment [2] - Thailand's economy faces multiple risk factors, including potentially lower-than-expected tourist arrivals, which contribute to downward pressure on economic growth [2] - The economic growth rate for Thailand in 2025 is likely to fall below 1.4% due to these combined factors [2]