Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has eased, with oil prices falling and the Fed's rate - cut expectations rising. The prices of most non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and import - export conditions, showing different trends of volatility [2][4]. - For copper, the short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For lead, the price is expected to remain weak. For zinc, the market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases. For tin, the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. For nickel, the price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore. For lithium carbonate, there is a risk of weakening in the short term. For alumina, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. For stainless steel, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [2][4][5]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The LME copper rose 0.35% to $9694/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78450 yuan/ton. The short - term price may fluctuate upwards, and the futures structure may strengthen if the import loss further expands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 3325 tons to 95875 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 tons to 2.6 tons. The social inventory decreased by more than 10000 tons over the weekend, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Import and Export**: The domestic copper spot import loss expanded to about 2500 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [2]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap price difference slightly expanded to 1020 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly increased [2]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: The LME aluminum rose 1.19% to $2592/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20445 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position increased by 19000 lots to 666000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 4.8 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15000 tons to 464000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons to 341000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: The East China spot premium over futures was 160 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.57% to 16926 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 16 to $1998/ton. The price is expected to remain weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 43800 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - **Consumption and Production**: The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries has declined significantly, and the downstream consumption remains weak. The profit of primary lead smelting has increased, and the operating rate has reached a historical high of about 70% [5]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.44% to 21774 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to $2648.5/ton. The market is affected by production and geopolitical factors, and the price volatility increases [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 7700 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - **Supply and Market Situation**: The import of zinc ore in May was good, but the import of zinc ingots was lower than expected. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. Geopolitical factors may affect the export of Iranian zinc ore [7]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 261880 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short term [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 58 tons to 6444 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2145 tons [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the import of tin ore in June is expected to decrease by 500 - 1000 tons. The terminal is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [8]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel price was weak. The price may decline, and attention should be paid to the price change of Indonesian nickel ore [9]. - **Supply Chain**: The price of nickel ore may decline, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, the tight situation of intermediate products may improve, the price of nickel sulfate has declined, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The MMLC index fell 0.17% to 59677 yuan. There is a risk of weakening in the short term [11][12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply clearance is slow, the downstream is in the off - season, and the high inventory suppresses the price [12]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: The alumina index rose 0.49% to 2897 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5400 tons to 37500 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12390 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1157400 tons, a 1.04% increase [16]. - **Market Situation**: High - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome producers are under cost pressure, and the market is waiting and watching [16].