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煤焦:煤产量小幅下滑,盘面震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 04:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - Recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, slowing down the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines. In the short term, coking coal may continue the oscillatory trend [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content - Yesterday coal and coke futures prices continued the oscillatory trend. In the spot market, the fourth round of price cuts for coke has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - This week's raw coal production was 185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - This week 11 new coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - This week coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production or stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal and lean coking coal. Driven by the rigid demand for inventory replenishment from downstream coking and steel enterprises, local coal prices rebounded [3] - The environmental inspection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, remains strict. Coupled with the weak market situation, surrounding open - pit coal mines have voluntarily stopped production. Currently, the production capacity of open - pit coal mines in operation is 9.6 million tons, accounting for about 34% of the total production capacity of open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing [3]
煤焦:盘面震荡运行,关注煤矿复产
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the near term, coal mine production cuts and reduced imports have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, slowing down the inventory accumulation rate of upstream coal mines. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Situation - Geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing yesterday, causing energy-related commodity prices to fall and driving down the futures prices of coking coal and coke. On the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, with no further price cut dynamics [3] - Recently, due to safety concerns, some coal mines in Changzhi received notices to suspend production for self - inspection. The suspension period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan have received the notice, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily raw coal output by 82,200 tons, mainly affecting lean coal and lean coking coal. In the short term, supply is tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [3] Data Analysis - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [3] - Downstream steel mills' operations are relatively stable, with hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons [3] - In May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 380,560 tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 400,250 tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [3] Later Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace operations of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal [4]