期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 悲观氛围主导，焦煤弱势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面疲弱，焦炭震荡下行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the downward trend of coke was driven by increased coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, along with policy factors. However, in December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward pressure on coke may ease, and the main contract is expected to gradually stabilize. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Market Situation of Coke Futures - In November, the J2601 contract of coke futures dropped 11.4%, with the lowest price at 1562.0 yuan/ton. As of December 3, the main contract closed at 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% daily [2] Spot Market Situation - Since mid - November, coking coal prices have weakened due to increased supply and futures drag. As of November 28, the daily output of coking coal in 523 mines was 76.4 tons, up 2.6 tons/day from November 7. In November, the Ganqimaodu Port's cumulative customs clearance increased by 38.6% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. The coking coal auction failure rate rose to 30% - 60% in mid - to - late November. On December 3, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropped significantly from the November high. On December 1, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, but the subsequent price cut space may be limited [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the short term, coke supply has increased while demand has decreased. As of November 28, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 tons, up 1.19 tons week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234.68 tons, down 1.60 tons week - on - week. In the future, the demand pressure on coke is expected to ease [4] Overall Conclusion - In November, coke futures declined due to negative factors in the fundamentals and policies. In December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the negative drivers for coke are weakening, and the main contract is expected to stabilize at the lower edge of the shock range. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the total daily coke output of all independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.323 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have given profits to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. Considering the possible macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the cost - side pressure on coke is expected to have limited room for further increase, and the main contract may gradually stabilize. The downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6][39]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 754,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. In November, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase from October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high for the year. The total daily coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The negative factors in November have been released, and with the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the downside space for coking - coal futures is expected to be limited, and it may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [7][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Shanxi aims to deepen the energy revolution, promote the construction of "Five Major Bases", ensure national energy security, and promote the high - end development of the coal industry and the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. It also focuses on the high - quality development of the energy and raw - material industries and the green - low - carbon transformation [9]. - On December 5, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable, with low - sulfur primary coking coal at 1,470 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,180 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [10]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 2.99%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.50%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly increase of 0.69%, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 6.25%, an annual increase of 1.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no weekly, monthly, or year - on - year change, but an annual increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 3.51%, an annual increase of 7.84%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37% [11]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%. The highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,585 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 214,591 lots, an increase of 18,131 lots, and the open interest was 265,380 lots, a decrease of 527 lots [15]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. The highest price was 1,193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,138.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 785,839 lots, an increase of 448,608 lots, and the open interest was 469,486 lots, an increase of 60,508 lots [15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking - coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking - coal inventory), domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace开工率 and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and开工率), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [16][24][31]. 5. Future Outlook - The future outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, potential macro - level positive factors, and expected coal - mine production cuts [39][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 3rd, the coke main contract closed at 1,624.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.40%. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke production increased, but steel mill demand was under pressure due to reduced iron water output and low profitability. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and there is resistance to further decline in coke futures [6][38]. - On December 3rd, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070.5 points, with an intraday decline of 2.19%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased week - on - week. The supply side is the core factor affecting the market. Recent policies and stable production have weakened the supply - side support for coal prices, but considering the December Politburo economic meeting and year - end coal mine production reduction expectations, there is resistance to further decline in coking coal futures [7][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released that the China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The central and western regions had higher business volume indices than the national average, and the fixed - asset investment completion index remained in a high - prosperity range [9]. - On December 3rd, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market dropped by 80 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal being 1,500 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The table shows the price changes of coke and coking coal in different markets (Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimaodu Port, Jingtang Port, etc.) on a weekly, monthly, annual, and year - on - year basis. For example, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, and the Mongolian coal price at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.25% week - on - week [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The table presents the trading information of coke and coking coal main contracts, including closing price, price change, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and open interest difference. The coke main contract had an intraday increase of 0.40%, while the coking coal main contract had an intraday decline of 2.19% [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports, etc.) and coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, etc.), as well as other related production and market data such as steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][20][21]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current market situation, price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future focus on coal mine production [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on the futures of coking coal and coke, suggesting an overall oscillatory approach for both [1] - For coking coal, the supply side is the core factor driving the market, with supply improving marginally and limited further downside expected [5] - For coke, the weakening cost support and inventory increase lead to a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is supply improvement and continuous decline [1] - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term views are oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach. The core logic is weakening cost support and weak operation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [5] - The core logic is that the supply side dominates the market. Energy supply guarantee reduces the expectation of anti - involution measures, production is not affected by inspections, and imports are accelerating, leading to a supply improvement since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting and year - end production cut expectations, the further decline space is limited [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The intraday view is oscillatory and bearish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is an oscillatory approach [6] - As of November 28, the combined daily production of coking plants and steel mills increased by 1.19 million tons week - on - week, the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 million tons week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%. The overall inventory increased by 4.05 million tons week - on - week. The weakening of coking coal market drags down the coke futures, and attention should be paid to coal mine production cuts in December [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The spot steel prices fluctuated slightly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. The supply from blast furnaces increased, but the output from electric arc furnaces decreased. The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, and the inventory of plates increased significantly. The demand for building materials weakened seasonally, and both domestic and external demand for plates declined month - on - month. The profit of steel mills expanded due to coke price cuts. The basis narrowed significantly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit. Overall, in June, the blast furnace operation continued to rise, hot metal production recovered slightly, and electric arc furnaces continued to cut production. Considering the pressure of declining demand for finished products in July and August, a medium - term short - selling strategy is maintained. Hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. Iron Ore - The spot iron ore prices dropped significantly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. Global shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources at ports also increased. Hot metal production remained at a high level and is expected to maintain its resilience. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices fluctuated downward. There is no trading space in the futures price spread, but attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01. In June, the supply was abundant, and demand was strong. Affected by the improvement in the coal fundamentals, the ore price rebounded strongly. However, considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further price increases is low. A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained, and attention should be paid to opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In June, the price of rebar was in a low - level oscillation, with the rebar 10 - contract futures price rising by 48 to 3009 and the hot - rolled coil futures price rising by 53 to 3129. In the spot market, the Shanghai rebar price was 3090 (down 40), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3200 (up 40). The hot - rolled coil was significantly stronger than rebar, mainly due to seasonal factors [8]. 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production remained at a high level. As of June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82% (unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71 percentage points year - on - year), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83% (up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.70 percentage points year - on - year), and the daily average hot metal output was 242.29 tons (up 0.11 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 tons year - on - year). The output of building materials decreased, with the long - process rebar output dropping by 80,000 tons. The electric arc furnace supply decreased significantly. As of the end of June, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.5% (down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.13 percentage points year - on - year) [11][19]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by nearly 300,000 tons month - on - month in June, and was 140,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The actual terminal demand, represented by the national concrete shipment, decreased by 10% month - on - month. The speculative demand decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month, but there was a slight increase at the end of the month. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent demand was basically flat compared with May. Domestic demand was weak, with the off - season characteristics of the automobile industry being obvious and the demand for household appliances declining year - on - year. The external demand for plates was weak [25][28]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of blast furnace steelmaking continued to increase, mainly due to two rounds of coke price cuts. The profit of rebar in Tangshan expanded by 80, approaching 230, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was similar. The loss of electric arc furnace steelmaking expanded, mainly due to the relatively high price of scrap steel [32]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, as of June 30, the social inventory decreased by 310,000 tons month - on - month, and the mill inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down, but the inventory accumulation period had not yet arrived. For hot - rolled coils, the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons, and the mill inventory increased by 30,000 tons. It entered the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory pressure was gradually emerging [35][39]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed significantly. The basis of rebar narrowed by 74 from the end of May to June 27, and the basis of hot - rolled coils narrowed by 5. The previously recommended reverse arbitrage positions were all closed at a profit, and there were no obvious short - term trading opportunities [42]. 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - In June, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar remained inverted, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 6 to - 10. Considering the upcoming seasonal off - season, the inversion may deepen [45]. 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market widened slightly from 115 to 126, and the spot spread widened from 30 to 110. It is expected that there is limited room for further widening, and there are no obvious trend - trading opportunities [48]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In June, the iron ore price rebounded from a low level. The futures price rose by 13.5 to 715.5, while the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped by 28 to 707 yuan/ton [53]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipment in June was 3.4566 billion tons, an increase of 247 million tons compared with May and 72 million tons compared with June last year. The weekly average shipment from Australia was 2.0517 billion tons (up 199 million tons from May and 8 million tons from June last year), and that from Brazil was 820 million tons (up 27 million tons from May and 19 million tons from June last year). The arrival of iron ore at ports also increased. The weekly average arrival in June was 2.6547 billion tons, an increase of 170 million tons compared with May and 143 million tons compared with June last year [56][59][62]. 2.3 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the blast furnace operation rate oscillated and increased in June. It is expected that the average daily hot metal production in July will remain at around 2.4 million tons, and the daily consumption is expected to increase accordingly. In terms of speculative demand, the monthly average daily iron ore trading volume at ports decreased slightly from 940,000 tons last month to about 920,000 tons [65][68]. 2.4 Inventory - As of June 27, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.43356 billion tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the previous month, 1.177 billion tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1.113 billion tons compared with the same period last year. The steel mill inventory decreased. As of June 30, the steel mill ore powder inventory was 8.847 billion tons, a decrease of 53 million tons compared with the previous month's average [71][74]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping prices from Australia and Brazil to Qingdao first rose and then fell in June. Geopolitical factors affected the downstream restocking rhythm, and the freight rates decreased significantly after the conflict eased [77]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore futures narrowed from 35.5 to 25.5, and there was no obvious trading value. The basis of the 09 contract narrowed significantly from 53 to 8. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01 [80][83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term coking coal and coke may continue the volatile and upward trend as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the upstream coal mines have seen an inventory inflection point [4] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - Last week, coking coal and coke futures prices showed a volatile rebound trend. On the spot side, coke remained stable after four rounds of price cuts, and the coking coal market maintained a weak and stable operation [3] - Due to safety reasons, there were regional and group - based coal mine production cuts and shutdowns in coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan and Linfen, Shanxi last week, leading to a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal and lean coking coal. The coal prices in the local area rebounded under the drive of the rigid replenishment demand of downstream coking and steel enterprises. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained strict, and surrounding open - pit coal mines shut down voluntarily [3] - Steel mills maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for raw materials was good [3] Group 3: Production and Inventory Data - Last week, the daily output of raw coal in coal mines was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons [4] - The raw coal inventory was 6.835 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 179,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.631 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 361,000 tons [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - Recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, slowing down the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines. In the short term, coking coal may continue the oscillatory trend [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content - Yesterday coal and coke futures prices continued the oscillatory trend. In the spot market, the fourth round of price cuts for coke has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price cut dynamic for the time being [3] - This week's raw coal production was 185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 203,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 738,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,000 tons [3] - This week 11 new coal mines such as Jining and Huaning stopped production, involving a production capacity of 14.45 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 45,800 tons; 1 coal mine resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.5 million tons and affecting the daily output of raw coal by 4,000 tons [3] - This week coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan and Linfen, Shanxi, reduced production or stopped production due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production and a shortage of resources such as lean coal and lean coking coal. Driven by the rigid demand for inventory replenishment from downstream coking and steel enterprises, local coal prices rebounded [3] - The environmental inspection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, remains strict. Coupled with the weak market situation, surrounding open - pit coal mines have voluntarily stopped production. Currently, the production capacity of open - pit coal mines in operation is 9.6 million tons, accounting for about 34% of the total production capacity of open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing [3]