1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The spot steel prices fluctuated slightly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. The supply from blast furnaces increased, but the output from electric arc furnaces decreased. The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, and the inventory of plates increased significantly. The demand for building materials weakened seasonally, and both domestic and external demand for plates declined month - on - month. The profit of steel mills expanded due to coke price cuts. The basis narrowed significantly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit. Overall, in June, the blast furnace operation continued to rise, hot metal production recovered slightly, and electric arc furnaces continued to cut production. Considering the pressure of declining demand for finished products in July and August, a medium - term short - selling strategy is maintained. Hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. Iron Ore - The spot iron ore prices dropped significantly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. Global shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources at ports also increased. Hot metal production remained at a high level and is expected to maintain its resilience. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices fluctuated downward. There is no trading space in the futures price spread, but attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01. In June, the supply was abundant, and demand was strong. Affected by the improvement in the coal fundamentals, the ore price rebounded strongly. However, considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further price increases is low. A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained, and attention should be paid to opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In June, the price of rebar was in a low - level oscillation, with the rebar 10 - contract futures price rising by 48 to 3009 and the hot - rolled coil futures price rising by 53 to 3129. In the spot market, the Shanghai rebar price was 3090 (down 40), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3200 (up 40). The hot - rolled coil was significantly stronger than rebar, mainly due to seasonal factors [8]. 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production remained at a high level. As of June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82% (unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71 percentage points year - on - year), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83% (up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.70 percentage points year - on - year), and the daily average hot metal output was 242.29 tons (up 0.11 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 tons year - on - year). The output of building materials decreased, with the long - process rebar output dropping by 80,000 tons. The electric arc furnace supply decreased significantly. As of the end of June, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.5% (down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.13 percentage points year - on - year) [11][19]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by nearly 300,000 tons month - on - month in June, and was 140,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The actual terminal demand, represented by the national concrete shipment, decreased by 10% month - on - month. The speculative demand decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month, but there was a slight increase at the end of the month. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent demand was basically flat compared with May. Domestic demand was weak, with the off - season characteristics of the automobile industry being obvious and the demand for household appliances declining year - on - year. The external demand for plates was weak [25][28]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of blast furnace steelmaking continued to increase, mainly due to two rounds of coke price cuts. The profit of rebar in Tangshan expanded by 80, approaching 230, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was similar. The loss of electric arc furnace steelmaking expanded, mainly due to the relatively high price of scrap steel [32]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, as of June 30, the social inventory decreased by 310,000 tons month - on - month, and the mill inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down, but the inventory accumulation period had not yet arrived. For hot - rolled coils, the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons, and the mill inventory increased by 30,000 tons. It entered the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory pressure was gradually emerging [35][39]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed significantly. The basis of rebar narrowed by 74 from the end of May to June 27, and the basis of hot - rolled coils narrowed by 5. The previously recommended reverse arbitrage positions were all closed at a profit, and there were no obvious short - term trading opportunities [42]. 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - In June, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar remained inverted, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 6 to - 10. Considering the upcoming seasonal off - season, the inversion may deepen [45]. 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market widened slightly from 115 to 126, and the spot spread widened from 30 to 110. It is expected that there is limited room for further widening, and there are no obvious trend - trading opportunities [48]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In June, the iron ore price rebounded from a low level. The futures price rose by 13.5 to 715.5, while the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped by 28 to 707 yuan/ton [53]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipment in June was 3.4566 billion tons, an increase of 247 million tons compared with May and 72 million tons compared with June last year. The weekly average shipment from Australia was 2.0517 billion tons (up 199 million tons from May and 8 million tons from June last year), and that from Brazil was 820 million tons (up 27 million tons from May and 19 million tons from June last year). The arrival of iron ore at ports also increased. The weekly average arrival in June was 2.6547 billion tons, an increase of 170 million tons compared with May and 143 million tons compared with June last year [56][59][62]. 2.3 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the blast furnace operation rate oscillated and increased in June. It is expected that the average daily hot metal production in July will remain at around 2.4 million tons, and the daily consumption is expected to increase accordingly. In terms of speculative demand, the monthly average daily iron ore trading volume at ports decreased slightly from 940,000 tons last month to about 920,000 tons [65][68]. 2.4 Inventory - As of June 27, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.43356 billion tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the previous month, 1.177 billion tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1.113 billion tons compared with the same period last year. The steel mill inventory decreased. As of June 30, the steel mill ore powder inventory was 8.847 billion tons, a decrease of 53 million tons compared with the previous month's average [71][74]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping prices from Australia and Brazil to Qingdao first rose and then fell in June. Geopolitical factors affected the downstream restocking rhythm, and the freight rates decreased significantly after the conflict eased [77]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore futures narrowed from 35.5 to 25.5, and there was no obvious trading value. The basis of the 09 contract narrowed significantly from 53 to 8. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01 [80][83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black commodity futures market rose today, with double coking coal closing down [1]. - The domestic supply of coking coal has declined, while the demand has increased, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has reached its lowest level since last May Day holiday [1]. - Under the premium structure of the main contract, the risk of chasing long positions is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure after the resumption of environmentally - friendly production cuts in July and the sustainability of high hot - metal production in the off - season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures market rose overall. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore were 2997 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 715.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0.23%, 0.13%, and 0.21%. Double coking coal closed down [1]. Market Analysis Supply - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressure, and inventory issues. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%, and the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend. Russian coal imports have decreased by about 600,000 tons month - on - month since May, and the three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days [1]. Demand - The trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has warmed up, with increased procurement inquiries and slightly higher transaction prices of some low - priced coal types. There is a phased replenishment demand at the end of the month, and the daily average output of blast furnace hot - metal in steel mills has increased to 2.4229 million tons. The inventories of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have increased by 1.66% and 0.8% respectively [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double coking coal: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1].

煤焦：焦煤降库 盘面震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 30 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格呈现震荡反弹走势。现货端，焦炭 4 轮提 降落地后偏稳运行；焦煤市场整体维持弱稳运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 基本面上，上周山西长治沁源、临汾等地煤矿因安全原因出现区域性、 集团性煤矿减产停产，产量下滑明显，影响瘦煤、瘦焦煤等资源短缺，在 下游焦钢企业刚需补库需求带动之下，当地煤价反弹。此外，内蒙古乌海 地区环保检查力度不减，叠加当前市场态势依旧偏弱 ...

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤产量小幅下滑 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 此外，内蒙古乌海地区环保检查力度不减，叠加当前市场态势依旧偏 弱，周边露天煤矿均自发性停产，据 Mysteel 不完全统计，目前在产露天 煤矿产能 960 万吨，约占乌海及棋盘井露天煤矿总产能 34%。 观点：近期煤矿减产叠加进口缩量，一定程度上缓解供应过剩压力， 上游煤矿累库速度放缓，短期煤焦或延续震荡走势。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司 ...