Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Trend-following strategies (CTA) are shifting focus to shorting the dollar and going long on gold after a significant short covering in crude oil [1] - WTI crude oil futures surged 13% last week, with a notable 4.9% increase on Wednesday driven partly by forced large-scale liquidations by trend followers [1][4] - Geopolitical factors, such as Israel's strikes on Iran, contributed to the recent price surge, indicating a potential positive trend for crude oil futures in the medium term [4] Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar's short positions are nearing extreme levels, with CTAs showing strong consensus on shorting the dollar against the euro, pound, and Mexican peso [6] - Current dollar positions have not yet reached liquidation trigger levels, but a sharp rebound in the dollar could pose risks [11] - The extreme bearish positioning on the dollar reflects deep market pessimism, which could lead to a chain reaction if large-scale liquidations occur [11] Group 3: Gold Market Positioning - Gold is positioned as a key asset in CTA's portfolio, with 100% bullish positioning across all trend models, indicating unprecedented optimism towards the precious metal [12] - Current gold prices are at $3,451 per ounce, with no sell signals triggered in various price path forecasts, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks [14] - The one-sided positioning in gold could expose potential systemic risks, as sudden shifts in market sentiment may lead to significant price volatility [14] Group 4: Equity and Fixed Income Trends - There is a noticeable divergence in trend-following models within the equity and bond markets, with long-term models shorting Russell 2000 and Nikkei 225 futures, while short- and medium-term models are bullish on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Nikkei 225 futures [15] - In fixed income, CTAs are shorting 10-year U.S. Treasury futures, while showing a more diversified approach in other global bond futures [16]

特朗普上周五表态后，美国三大股指期货早盘悉数下跌0.4%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌幅达0.5%。亚洲市场同步承压，日经225指数期货下跌0.7%，澳大利 亚S&P/ASX 200指数期货下跌0.6%。资金流向避险资产：10年期美国国债期货上涨0.2%，现货黄金价格上涨0.48%报3330美元/盎司，日元兑美元汇率升至 143.83。 数据显示，美国30年期国债收益率已连续第三个月上升，累计上涨15个基点，创2023年以来最长连涨纪录，反映市场对财政可持续性的担忧。财政部长贝森 特虽强调"美国永不违约"，但国会与白宫围绕减税法案的角力仍令债务问题悬而未决。 在亚太时段，交易员正密切关注香港股市动向，同时消化中国5月制造业PMI数据。值得警惕的是，白宫官员指责中国"未履行第一阶段贸易协定承诺"，而 中美领导人预计本周通话的计划，为紧张局势留有缓和余地。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普宣布将钢铁和铝进口关税翻倍的贸易保护主义举措，令全球市场神经紧绷。亚洲股市周一开盘集体走弱，避险资产价格 攀升，而国际油价在地缘政治风险与OPEC+增产的双重作用下延续涨势。 尽管石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)周末批准7月增 ...

美国联邦基金期货在早盘交易中猛涨，12月合约上涨30个跳动点。 美国联邦基金期货暗示美联储今年将降息120个基点（4.8次） 。 美元兑日元 失守145，为去年10月以来首次，日内跌幅1.29%。 一些快速货币基金 做空澳元 ，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显 示，截至4月1日，杠杆基金的空头头寸已连续第三周增加。这样的短期回报可能会让人无法拒绝。 澳大利亚联邦银行的Carol Kong表示，随着 风险情绪的骤降， 澳元本周将成为交易商抛售的目标 。 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 周一开盘，纳指期货跌幅在盘初一度跌超5.5%，标普500指数期货跌超4.7%，道指期货跌超4%； WTI原油 跌幅达4%，跌破60美元/桶，为自 2021年4月以来首次； 现货黄金 周一盘初跌17美元，跌幅为0.56%； 现货白银 跌超2%。 虽然贵金属通常会从动荡时期获益，但在市场极度混乱时，贵金属也会被抛售，因为投资者会寻求弥补其他方面的损失。 非美货币走低，日元因避险情绪上涨超1%。10年期美国国债期货跳涨，表 ...