Wage Growth and Consumption Dynamics - Japan's wage growth reached its highest level in 33 years during the 2024 spring labor negotiations, yet consumption recovery lags behind income growth[1] - Approximately 70% of respondents indicated they would increase consumption if their income rises, highlighting the importance of sustained wage growth over one-time bonuses[2] - Despite rising wages, about 40% of households expect their income to remain unchanged over the next five years, reflecting a lack of confidence in future income growth[2] Consumer Behavior and Inflation Expectations - High inflation has suppressed consumer confidence, with many households feeling that price increases outpace wage growth, particularly in essential goods like food[2] - Nearly 20% of respondents expect prices to rise by over 20% in the coming year, with around 50% anticipating increases of more than 10%[2] - The perception of rising prices is negatively correlated with consumer sentiment, leading to increased savings behavior among households[3] Savings Trends and Future Uncertainty - The proportion of individuals feeling their savings are "completely insufficient" rose from 30.1% in 2019 to 35.8% in 2025, indicating growing financial anxiety[3] - The share of savings designated for retirement increased from 46.3% to 53.6%, while "no specific purpose" savings surged from 6.7% to 22.9%[3] - Households with a "precautionary savings" motive exhibit significantly higher savings rates, averaging about 1% more than those without such motives[3] Structural Issues in Consumption - The average consumption propensity has shown a long-term decline, particularly among dual-income households, which now make up about 40% of all households[1] - Factors contributing to the decline in consumption include rising homeownership rates, unstable income expectations, and increasing concerns about retirement[1] - The overall consumption trend remains below pre-pandemic levels, with structural issues in the labor market exacerbating the situation[1]

中金研究 破解募资寒冬，促进投早投小投创新，需要吸引耐心资本入市。"耐心"与"长线"可能是表象，耐心资本的根本特点在于风险偏好较高。需要重视静态 财富效应与动态财富效应之于耐心资本的含义。静态财富效应是指由于财富积累边际效应递减规律，富裕群体通常风险偏好更高。一方面对于富裕群 体而言，单位财富增加用于满足生活必需品开支的必要性是较低的，因而更有能力去投资高风险活动；另一方面，投资活动的风险是相对的而非绝对 的，拥有更多财富的群体既有能力降低投资活动的感知风险，也有能力改变投资活动的实际风险。因此，有必要重视富裕群体对于耐心资本的重要 性。就美国而言，其通过构建遗产税与捐赠抵免相结合的政策组合，有利于富裕人群资金转化为耐心资本。动态财富效应是指壮大耐心资本的关键在 于实现资本市场的持续繁荣，而不是反过来。从1979年美国谨慎人规则澄清后的资金流入与市场表现来看，放宽准入规则确实在短期内会有助于更多 养老金流入资本市场，但从长期看资金尤其是耐心资本是否会持续流入市场，可能更多取决于市场是否具有动态财富效应。考虑到心理账户与禀赋效 应后，动态财富效应比静态财富效应更重要。对于耐心资本的形成而言，这意味着持续繁荣的股 ...