针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明，在他看来，2026年促消费政策或将更多聚焦服务消费、耐用品更新和新型消费场景， 同时在收入分配、公共服务和制度保障层面形成更稳定的支撑机制。更重要的是，通过稳定就业、完善医疗和养老保障体系、减轻教育支出负担，逐步压缩 预防性储蓄动机，从根本上释放消费潜能。 明明认为，步入"十五五"阶段，货币政策仍具备一定发力空间，但重点预计将逐步从总量宽松转向结构优化。在人民银行的各项稳汇率政策工具下，将缓和 汇率单边行情预期，人民币有望温和升值。此外，在央行宽松货币政策的支持下，明年长债利率有望迎来阶段性下行行情，全年视角下长债利率或将先下后 上。 促消费政策将更聚焦服务消费等场景 北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性 与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 明明：2025年促消费政策从"增量拉动"转向"结构优化"，本质上是对消费约束来源变化的回应。在居民收入预期尚未完全修复、消费意愿约束依然存在 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯(记者张晓翀)12月11日，世界银行发布最新一期中国经济简报称，2025年第三季度中 国经济保持稳健势头，年初至今GDP同比增长5.2%。宽松的财政和货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资， 而来自其他发展中国家的需求也维持了出口增长。 世界银行中国、蒙古和韩国局局长华玛雅表示："未来几年，中国经济增长将更多依靠内需。除短期财 政刺激外，推进社会保障体系的结构性改革，为企业营造更可预期的营商环境，将有助于提振信心，为 实现有韧性、可持续的增长奠定基础。" 经济前景面临的风险大致平衡。房地产业存在挑战、盈利前景偏弱、劳动力市场疲软以及贸易政策不确 定性等因素的持续时间可能长于预期，从而拖累消费和投资。从上行风险来看，高于预期的财政支出， 包括加大力度健全社会保障以及更果断的稳定房地产业的政策行动，可能会使经济增长超过当前预测。 这期简报还分析了高储蓄率与居民消费行为之间的关系。中国居民储蓄近一半投资于房产，约四分之一 为银行存款。对低风险银行存款的偏好与预防性储蓄需求和长期金融产品有限有关，而近期也受房价下 行和收入预期趋于谨慎的影响。大量居民存款虽然提供了低成本资金，但也可能削弱价格信号，导致资 本配置 ...

明明国家经济持续发展，但自己的钱包似乎总是鼓不起来，想消费却总是缩手缩脚？2025年一季度央行货币政策报告首次将消费的重要性提升至前所未有的 高度，揭开了一个深层秘密：中国的消费困境，并非简单的周期性波动，而是深层次的结构性偏差。 数据显示，中国最终消费支出占GDP的比重相比美国、日本等发达国家明显偏低，而与此同时，政府部门净资产占全社会比重高达38.6%，远高于OECD国 家普遍低于10%的水平。 背后是一条清晰的经济逻辑链条：高国有资本比重导致企业高储蓄，抑制了收入分配向居民部门的倾斜，社会财富更多流向资本而非劳动，直接制约了居民 消费能力的提升。 2024年，我国社会消费品零售总额增速放缓至3.5%，低于GDP增速1.5个百分点，居民消费率（最终消费支出占GDP比重）仅为46.8%，较全球平均水平低15 个百分点。 低消费率形成鲜明对比的是，中国政府部门持有的资产相当于GDP的166%，这些资产主要为具有较好增长性的国有企业股权。 这种"重投资、轻消费"的资源配置方式在特定历史阶段推动了工业化和城市化进程，但随着经济增长模式从投资驱动转向消费和创新驱动，其局限性日益凸 显。 消费不足严格来讲是服务消费不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic shift in China's economic policy towards "investing in people," which aims to enhance the quality of life and stimulate domestic consumption through various social welfare initiatives [1][6]. Summary by Sections Social Welfare Investments - In 2025, China will increase investments in core social security areas such as pensions and medical insurance, with a 2% increase in basic pensions for retirees, marking the 21st consecutive year of pension increases [2]. - The per capita financial subsidy for urban and rural residents' medical insurance will rise by 30 yuan, reaching 700 yuan per person annually, alleviating the burden of medical expenses [2]. Fiscal Policy and Management - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes a historic increase in the general public budget deficit ratio to 4%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds to support social welfare [2][3]. - Expenditures on social security, employment, education, and health have outpaced overall budget growth, with social security and employment spending increasing by 9.3% year-on-year [2]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - The "investment in people" strategy is expected to boost consumer confidence, with a consumer willingness index rising to 112.9, the highest in five quarters [5]. - The elderly care and childcare policies are designed to reduce household financial burdens, encouraging increased consumer spending [4]. Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The article highlights a shift from traditional social safety nets to strategic investments in human capital, indicating that future competition will focus on population quality and labor capabilities [3][6]. - The integration of "investment in material" and "investment in people" is anticipated to enhance domestic circulation and foster new growth drivers [7]. Future Outlook - Experts predict that the "investment in people" approach will enter a new phase in 2026, focusing on support for vulnerable groups and improving the social security system [6]. - Recommendations include building a robust guarantee system to reduce household risk exposure and creating a lifecycle policy framework for social welfare [6].

Group 1 - The core issue is that despite China's large population, consumer spending remains low, with retail sales growth significantly lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, only reaching 7.2% in 2023 and dropping to 4-5% in 2025 [2][4][6] - Household savings have surged, with deposits increasing by over 14 trillion in 2024, reaching 151 trillion, and an additional 12.73 trillion added in the first three quarters of 2025, while retail sales growth continues to decline [4][6] - The phenomenon of "14 billion people cannot drive consumption" has become a trending topic, highlighting the disconnect between population size and consumer spending, with urban areas experiencing high vacancy rates in retail spaces [6][8] Group 2 - Key factors contributing to low consumer spending include rapid aging of the population, with over 300 million people aged 60 and above, leading to different consumption habits focused on healthcare and savings rather than discretionary spending [8][10] - The real estate market downturn has negatively impacted wealth expectations, with many families seeing significant declines in property values, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending [10][12] - Income growth is not keeping pace with inflation and housing costs, with nominal growth around 5% in 2025, but real disposable income growth being much lower, causing consumers to prioritize savings over spending [12][14] Group 3 - Excess capacity in various industries has led to price wars and thin profit margins, making it difficult for companies to raise wages, which in turn affects consumer spending [14][16] - A cycle of low spending has emerged, where reduced consumer expenditure leads to lower sales for businesses, stagnant wages, and further reluctance to spend, resulting in a significant portion of funds remaining in banks [16][18] - Government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption have started to show positive effects, with retail sales rebounding in mid-2025 and GDP growth stabilizing at 5.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [18][20]

Core Insights - The trend of increased savings among young people is driven by a shift in mindset towards financial security and preparedness for unexpected events [1][3][4] - The significant rise in household deposits, totaling 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflects a proactive approach to financial planning rather than mere conservatism [6] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Savings - Young individuals are prioritizing savings to prepare for emergencies, with 61.8% of residents favoring more savings post-pandemic, a 10 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - Experiences of financial hardship, such as job loss, have led many to recognize the importance of having a financial cushion [1][3] - The decline in confidence in high-yield investments has prompted a shift back to traditional savings, with a 2.5% year-on-year decrease in funds allocated to asset management products [3] Group 2: Changing Attitudes Towards Spending - Young savers are increasingly distinguishing between needs and wants, leading to reduced discretionary spending and a focus on saving for future opportunities [3][4] - The concept of "saving for freedom" is gaining traction, allowing individuals to make life choices without financial constraints [4] Group 3: Savings Strategies - Many individuals are adopting structured savings methods, such as the "account four-part method" and the "365 savings method," to manage their finances effectively [6] - There is a growing emphasis on balancing necessary expenditures with savings, ensuring that essential areas like health and education are not compromised [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a total increase of 22.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, including a rise of 12.73 trillion yuan in household deposits [1][2] - The high growth in deposits reflects the flexibility of residents' financial behavior and indicates potential future economic growth and policy directions [1] Deposit Trends - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is observed, where household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan in September while non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in asset allocation among residents [1] - The current asset allocation behavior of residents is highly flexible, responding to relative changes in yields between bank savings and other assets [1] Consumer Behavior - Residents are adopting a more rational consumption approach, with a prevailing "precautionary saving" mindset, leading to unfulfilled large consumption demands [2] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating that consumer demand remains weak and credit recovery needs to continue [2] Economic Implications - The substantial increase in household deposits represents a large "reservoir" of funds, indicating strong potential purchasing power that could support future consumption and investment [2] - If a portion of these deposits flows into consumption or investment in the future, it could provide strong support for demand and act as a driving force for economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of hard discount stores in China reflects a significant shift in consumer behavior, driven by economic uncertainty and a focus on value over brand loyalty [12][30][39] Group 1: Market Trends - Hard discount stores are rapidly expanding across China, with major players like JD and Meituan entering the market, indicating a shift in retail dynamics [3][4][6] - The number of hard discount stores is increasing at a remarkable pace, with new openings in key cities and a growing presence of traditional discount brands like Aldi [6][8] - Consumers are increasingly opting for hard discount options, with many choosing lower-priced alternatives over premium brands, highlighting a change in spending habits [3][10][12] Group 2: Economic Context - The economic environment has shifted from a focus on consumption upgrades to a more cautious spending approach, influenced by slowing income growth and rising living costs [12][14][31] - Data shows that while disposable income has increased, the growth rate has slowed, leading to a perception of reduced purchasing power among consumers [14][17][19] - The concept of "preventive savings" has emerged, where consumers are saving more due to uncertainties about future income, impacting their spending behavior [25][27][28] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now prioritizing essential needs over wants, reflecting a more rational approach to spending in response to economic pressures [16][30][35] - The perception of value has become paramount, with consumers scrutinizing every purchase for necessity and cost-effectiveness [16][36][40] - The rise of hard discount stores is seen as a societal adjustment to economic uncertainty, where consumers seek products that offer better value rather than simply opting for higher-priced items [39][40][41] Group 4: Retail Efficiency - Hard discount stores operate on a model that emphasizes efficiency, with a limited number of SKUs and a focus on private label products to reduce costs [36][38] - The operational strategies of hard discount retailers include minimizing overhead costs and maximizing supply chain efficiency, which allows them to offer lower prices [36][38] - This shift towards hard discounting represents a broader "efficiency revolution" in the retail sector, challenging traditional retail models and prompting brands to reassess their value propositions [38][39]

Wage Growth and Consumption Dynamics - Japan's wage growth reached its highest level in 33 years during the 2024 spring labor negotiations, yet consumption recovery lags behind income growth[1] - Approximately 70% of respondents indicated they would increase consumption if their income rises, highlighting the importance of sustained wage growth over one-time bonuses[2] - Despite rising wages, about 40% of households expect their income to remain unchanged over the next five years, reflecting a lack of confidence in future income growth[2] Consumer Behavior and Inflation Expectations - High inflation has suppressed consumer confidence, with many households feeling that price increases outpace wage growth, particularly in essential goods like food[2] - Nearly 20% of respondents expect prices to rise by over 20% in the coming year, with around 50% anticipating increases of more than 10%[2] - The perception of rising prices is negatively correlated with consumer sentiment, leading to increased savings behavior among households[3] Savings Trends and Future Uncertainty - The proportion of individuals feeling their savings are "completely insufficient" rose from 30.1% in 2019 to 35.8% in 2025, indicating growing financial anxiety[3] - The share of savings designated for retirement increased from 46.3% to 53.6%, while "no specific purpose" savings surged from 6.7% to 22.9%[3] - Households with a "precautionary savings" motive exhibit significantly higher savings rates, averaging about 1% more than those without such motives[3] Structural Issues in Consumption - The average consumption propensity has shown a long-term decline, particularly among dual-income households, which now make up about 40% of all households[1] - Factors contributing to the decline in consumption include rising homeownership rates, unstable income expectations, and increasing concerns about retirement[1] - The overall consumption trend remains below pre-pandemic levels, with structural issues in the labor market exacerbating the situation[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of two new subsidy policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and economic growth in China, reflecting a strategic shift towards enhancing fiscal and financial collaboration to stimulate consumption and address economic challenges [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The "Two Subsidy" policies, which include personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, represent a significant move by the central government to promote consumption as a key driver of economic growth [2]. - These policies aim to maximize the multiplier effect of public financial resources and are seen as proactive measures to explore the boundaries of economic development [2][3]. Current Economic Challenges - There is a notable decline in consumer willingness and ability to spend, as evidenced by negative new credit data reported by the central bank, indicating a lack of confidence among consumers [3]. - In July, household loans decreased by 489.3 billion yuan, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans also showing significant reductions, reflecting a broader trend of reduced borrowing and spending [2][3]. Consumer Behavior Insights - The reluctance to incur debt for consumption is attributed to concerns about future job security and income stability, particularly in light of advancements in AI technology and a shrinking job market [3]. - Additionally, a significant increase in household savings, totaling 9.66 trillion yuan in the first seven months, suggests a shift towards precautionary savings in response to economic uncertainties [3]. Recommendations for Policy Effectiveness - To ensure the effective implementation of the "Two Subsidy" policies, it is crucial to create an environment that enhances market demand elasticity [4]. - This includes fostering a fair employment environment and improving social security systems to alleviate consumer anxieties about the future, thereby encouraging spending [4][5]. Conclusion - The "Two Subsidy" policies are positioned as a new lever for enhancing consumer spending and economic growth, with the potential to transform consumer demand into actionable economic activity [5]. - By addressing underlying consumer concerns and improving the overall economic environment, these policies could significantly impact the effectiveness of consumption as a growth driver [5].