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2025诺贝尔经济学奖,解释了为什么要“反内卷”
吴晓波频道· 2025-10-14 00:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of generative AI across various sectors and highlights the concept of "creative destruction" as a driving force for innovation and economic growth, referencing the recent Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to three scholars for their contributions to this field [3][5]. Group 1: Nobel Prize Winners and Their Contributions - The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and Joel Mokyr, emphasizing the significance of "innovation-driven growth" [5]. - Aghion and Howitt developed a mathematical model of "creative destruction," transforming Joseph Schumpeter's philosophical ideas into practical insights for economic growth [12][13]. - Their model illustrates that economic growth results from a series of "micro-revolutions," where each innovation enhances productivity while simultaneously phasing out outdated technologies [16]. Group 2: Innovation Dynamics - Aghion and Howitt's research reconciles two prevailing views on innovation: Schumpeter's belief in market power as a driver of innovation and Kenneth Arrow's view that competition fosters innovation [14][15]. - They introduced the "inverted U-shaped curve" to explain the relationship between competition and innovation, suggesting that moderate competition fosters the best environment for innovation [18][23]. - The balance of fear and hope is identified as the core driver of innovation, where moderate competition creates a sense of urgency for existing firms while providing opportunities for challengers [24]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Aghion argues that government should create an environment conducive to growth rather than directly generating it, emphasizing the importance of maintaining competitive tension [25][28]. - The article suggests that antitrust policies should not aim to eliminate large companies but ensure they face competition, while subsidies should distribute innovation risks across society [28][31]. - The integration of industrial and competition policies is essential for fostering innovation, allowing for long-term R&D support alongside open market access [31].
中金:“反内卷”的宏观含义
中金点睛· 2025-07-16 23:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of "involutionary competition" in various industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to promote product quality and orderly market competition, as highlighted in the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1][5][6]. Understanding "Involutionary Competition" - "Involutionary competition" refers to a form of homogenized and disorderly competition, resulting in excessive investment without improving output efficiency, leading to resource misallocation [10][11]. - It manifests in two dimensions: horizontal competition among peers, characterized by over-investment and price wars, and vertical competition, where dominant firms transfer competitive pressure to suppliers and retailers, disrupting market order [11][12]. Causes of "Involutionary Competition" - The root causes include macroeconomic oversupply and microeconomic market failures. Oversupply leads to a negative cycle, while market failures can stem from blind investments and structural power imbalances [22][23]. - The article identifies the need to combat "involution" to achieve reasonable price recovery and promote sustainable innovation, shifting competition from price to value [31][35]. Effective Measures to Address "Involutionary Competition" - The current approach to combating "involution" is more market-oriented and legalistic compared to previous capacity reduction efforts, focusing on innovation and consumer demand [3][44]. - Industries likely to benefit from these measures include coal, steel, construction materials, chemicals, and emerging sectors like photovoltaic and electric vehicles, which are currently experiencing "involutionary competition" [6][66]. Regulatory Framework and Industry Response - Recent regulatory actions include collective production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector and commitments from major automotive companies to limit payment terms to suppliers [6][9]. - The government has implemented various laws to ensure fair competition, such as the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" and the "Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises" [9][17]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that industries with significant "involutionary competition" characteristics, such as declining capacity utilization and increased sales expenses, should be closely monitored for the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [64][66]. - The transition from price competition to value competition is expected to enhance product quality and long-term profitability, aiding in the overall industrial upgrade and high-quality development [43][44].