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2025诺贝尔经济学奖,解释了为什么要“反内卷”
吴晓波频道· 2025-10-14 00:30
生成式 AI从论文走进现实,不到两年,便让语言、艺术、法律、教育、金融等领域重新洗牌。仿佛都在验证熊彼特那句一百年前的预言: "资本主义的本质,就是创造性的破坏 。 " 这种情况下,经济学家在关心什么呢? 当人工智能也能创造的时候,经济增长的引擎是不是也在悄然发生改变?国家应该如何厘清创新、竞争和 增长之间的关系? 今年的诺贝尔经济学奖公布前,瑞典皇家科学院的秘书长也是有意在卖关子,在宣布得奖名单的时候,先抛出一个关键词 "创造性破坏",然后停 顿了几秒,翻页,念出今年三位得奖者的姓名: 菲利普 ·阿吉翁、彼得·豪伊特,以及乔尔·莫基尔。 点击上图▲立即收听 " 恐惧与希望的平衡,才是创新的原动力。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 这几年,我们的生活像是被按下了快进键。 他身上不仅带着一种典型的巴黎式傲气,那种相信自己是房间里最聪明的人的自信;还带有传统富贵之家的疏离感。但是,傲气和疏离的背后,阿 吉翁在经济学方面惊人的工作热情和理论直觉是掩盖不住的 。 三位经济学奖获得奖者 在这样的语境下,诺贝尔经济学奖在 2025年颁给 " 创新驱动增长 " 这个方向,就显得意味深长。 潮二代出身的经济学家 ...
中金:“反内卷”的宏观含义
中金点睛· 2025-07-16 23:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of "involutionary competition" in various industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to promote product quality and orderly market competition, as highlighted in the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1][5][6]. Understanding "Involutionary Competition" - "Involutionary competition" refers to a form of homogenized and disorderly competition, resulting in excessive investment without improving output efficiency, leading to resource misallocation [10][11]. - It manifests in two dimensions: horizontal competition among peers, characterized by over-investment and price wars, and vertical competition, where dominant firms transfer competitive pressure to suppliers and retailers, disrupting market order [11][12]. Causes of "Involutionary Competition" - The root causes include macroeconomic oversupply and microeconomic market failures. Oversupply leads to a negative cycle, while market failures can stem from blind investments and structural power imbalances [22][23]. - The article identifies the need to combat "involution" to achieve reasonable price recovery and promote sustainable innovation, shifting competition from price to value [31][35]. Effective Measures to Address "Involutionary Competition" - The current approach to combating "involution" is more market-oriented and legalistic compared to previous capacity reduction efforts, focusing on innovation and consumer demand [3][44]. - Industries likely to benefit from these measures include coal, steel, construction materials, chemicals, and emerging sectors like photovoltaic and electric vehicles, which are currently experiencing "involutionary competition" [6][66]. Regulatory Framework and Industry Response - Recent regulatory actions include collective production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector and commitments from major automotive companies to limit payment terms to suppliers [6][9]. - The government has implemented various laws to ensure fair competition, such as the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" and the "Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises" [9][17]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that industries with significant "involutionary competition" characteristics, such as declining capacity utilization and increased sales expenses, should be closely monitored for the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [64][66]. - The transition from price competition to value competition is expected to enhance product quality and long-term profitability, aiding in the overall industrial upgrade and high-quality development [43][44].