记者丨王峰 编辑丨曾静娇 见习编辑张嘉钰 10月20日至23日在北京召开党的二十届四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划建议，旨在对未来五 年发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。 "十四五"时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后，乘势而上开启全面建 设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。围绕以中国式现代 化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全 面发力的关键时期。 放眼2035年，未来五年、乃至十年改革和发展的重点有哪些？21世纪经济报道近日专访了中共 中央党校（国家行政学院）中国式现代化研究中心主任张占斌。 《21世纪》： 当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，动荡变革期仍在持续，未来十 年我国经济社会发展将面临怎样的外部环境？ 张占斌： 近十多年来，中美战略博弈成为影响全球政治经济格局的重要因素。当前中美已从 贸易摩擦升级为科技、金融、人才、地缘的全方位角力，中美战略博弈竞争出现多维格局与 长期化趋势。仅以半导体为例，中国28nm以上成熟制程芯片产能约占全球的30%，但7nm以 下先进制 ...

（原标题：专访张占斌：未来十年是中国式现代化的关键期、决胜期） 21世纪经济报道记者王峰北京报道 10月20日至23日在北京召开党的二十届四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划建议，旨在对未来五年发展作 出顶层设计和战略擘画，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。 张占斌：近十多年来，中美战略博弈成为影响全球政治经济格局的重要因素。当前中美已从贸易摩擦升 级为科技、金融、人才、地缘的全方位角力，中美战略博弈竞争出现多维格局与长期化趋势。仅以半导 体为例，中国28nm以上成熟制程芯片产能约占全球的30%，但7nm以下先进制程几乎处于空白，这 种"低端内卷、高端失守"的格局亟须突破。当然，无论是美国再工业化，还是贸易摩擦，都改变不了中 国式现代化向前迈进的趋向。中美战略博弈将是一个长期过程，对中国未来的国家安全、核心利益和发 展战略将产生深远影响，我们必须稳住阵脚，在复杂国际环境中坚定打造自身核心竞争力，以应对和打 破美国的战略遏制。 《21世纪》："十四五"时期中国经济保持了较高的增长速度。迈过"中等收入陷阱"，实现2035年人均国 内生产总值迈上新的大台阶的目标，需要制定什么样的增长目标？ 张占斌：202 ...

欧洲未能激发突破性高科技创新，而是局限于中低端渐进式创新。 报告分析认为，这一结果部分是路径依赖导致的。过去20年，欧盟研发资金的部门分布几乎不变，一直 为汽车行业主导。但美国最大的研发投入公司已从2003年的汽车/制药转向2022年的软件巨头，中国也 快速转向高科技。即使是在欧洲具有优势的汽车部门，电动车转型也落后中美。欧盟汽车部门的研发资 金占全球45%，但软件仅为6%，美国软件研发资金占全球75%。 当地时间10月13日，新晋诺贝尔经济学奖得主、法国经济学家阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）在与瑞典皇家 科学院的通话中说道，欧洲各国必须清醒认识到，自身在技术竞争上已落后于美国和中国，并应设法改 变这一局面。 阿吉翁认为，这背后的原因是，欧洲缺乏适当的政策和制度来激发突破性高科技创新，而是局限于中低 端渐进式创新。 德国Ifo经济研究所工业组织与新技术中心副主任、高级经济学家切尔尼希博士（Dr. Nina Czernich）接 受第一财经记者采访时也认同了这一观点。她称，德国在新兴技术领域的落后，部分源于其对汽车和机 械等传统强势产业的过度依赖，"无论是公共政策还是私营企业，都倾向于依托德国引以为傲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of "involutionary competition" in various industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to promote product quality and orderly market competition, as highlighted in the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1][5][6]. Understanding "Involutionary Competition" - "Involutionary competition" refers to a form of homogenized and disorderly competition, resulting in excessive investment without improving output efficiency, leading to resource misallocation [10][11]. - It manifests in two dimensions: horizontal competition among peers, characterized by over-investment and price wars, and vertical competition, where dominant firms transfer competitive pressure to suppliers and retailers, disrupting market order [11][12]. Causes of "Involutionary Competition" - The root causes include macroeconomic oversupply and microeconomic market failures. Oversupply leads to a negative cycle, while market failures can stem from blind investments and structural power imbalances [22][23]. - The article identifies the need to combat "involution" to achieve reasonable price recovery and promote sustainable innovation, shifting competition from price to value [31][35]. Effective Measures to Address "Involutionary Competition" - The current approach to combating "involution" is more market-oriented and legalistic compared to previous capacity reduction efforts, focusing on innovation and consumer demand [3][44]. - Industries likely to benefit from these measures include coal, steel, construction materials, chemicals, and emerging sectors like photovoltaic and electric vehicles, which are currently experiencing "involutionary competition" [6][66]. Regulatory Framework and Industry Response - Recent regulatory actions include collective production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector and commitments from major automotive companies to limit payment terms to suppliers [6][9]. - The government has implemented various laws to ensure fair competition, such as the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" and the "Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises" [9][17]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that industries with significant "involutionary competition" characteristics, such as declining capacity utilization and increased sales expenses, should be closely monitored for the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [64][66]. - The transition from price competition to value competition is expected to enhance product quality and long-term profitability, aiding in the overall industrial upgrade and high-quality development [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price war initiated by leading electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has triggered a chain reaction in the industry, leading to significant market volatility and a decline in the market value of major automakers, with losses exceeding 100 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The price war has resulted in a widespread drop in stock prices for automakers, with leading companies experiencing a market value loss of over 100 billion yuan [1] - Local government policies, driven by GDP competition, have created a distorted market environment, leading to overcapacity and price reductions in various sectors, including the photovoltaic industry [1] - The rampant practice of "zero-kilometer used cars" has emerged as a symptom of industry internalization, distorting pricing systems and undermining brand reputation [1] Group 2: Innovation Challenges - The survival anxiety among companies has led to a reduction in R&D budgets, with funds originally allocated for key technological advancements being redirected to subsidies for terminal promotions [2] - Tier 1 suppliers have been forced to cut costs, resulting in a decline in R&D investment ratios, which has contributed to a homogenization of products in the automotive industry [2] - The dual pressure from developed countries' technological barriers and Southeast Asian countries' cost advantages has made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to innovate and upgrade [2] Group 3: Solutions and Recommendations - To break the cycle of internalization, there is a need to create an "innovation-friendly" ecosystem by optimizing the existing institutional framework and promoting fair competition across regions [3] - Companies should focus on core technological innovations, increase R&D investments, and foster collaboration within the supply chain to enhance overall efficiency [3] - Macro policies should guide resources towards high-tech sectors and encourage consumer willingness to pay a premium for technological innovations, particularly in emerging industries like electric vehicles [4] Group 4: Long-term Transformation - The transformation away from internalization is crucial for national development, requiring a shift in development logic to prioritize innovation and entrepreneurial spirit [5] - Achieving high-quality development in the automotive industry and manufacturing sector necessitates a transition from a "sweat economy" to a "smart economy" through long-term collaboration among institutions, companies, and society [5]