深圳商报·读创客户端记者 张郗郡 在信息爆炸真假难辨的时代，如何穿透纷繁复杂的国际时事表象，洞见背后的深层逻辑？知名政治经济学者、香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院院长、前 海国际事务研究院院长郑永年教授以其最新著作《对话郑永年：大变局下的中国发展方案》给出了答案。 12月4日，《对话郑永年：大变局下的中国发展方案》新书首发暨郑永年学术编年图片展在香港中文大学（深圳）校园举行。活动由前海国际事务研究院与 天津出版传媒集团联合发起，以"世界怎么变，中国怎么走"为主题，邀请郑永年教授作为主讲嘉宾，深入探讨本书所触及的时代命题。 值得一提的是，香港中文大学（深圳）校长徐扬生作为特别来宾也来到了现场。徐扬生校长强调，在世界风起云涌的时代，做判断特别重要，无论是作为领 导者的判断力，还是做智库、做学问的判断力。"郑永年教授所领衔的公共政策学院，也是为未来培养有前瞻性、有判断力的，既能立足中国又能放眼世界 的人才。" 与本次新书发布会同期举办的"郑永年学术编年图片展"，以时间为经、以思想为纬，通过展示郑永年跨越三十载的著作封面，勾勒其学术思想的演进脉络。 其作品内容从早期对国家制度转型的敏锐洞察，到对"中国模式"的系统阐释 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning for China's development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of achieving socialist modernization by 2035 and addressing the challenges of the "middle-income trap" and "middle-technology trap" [1][5]. Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen China maintain a high economic growth rate, with a target annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, which is 2 percentage points higher than the global average [8]. - For the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2035), the GDP annual growth rate should be maintained between 4.5% and 5.2% to achieve the goal of reaching the income level of developed countries [9][8]. Reform and High-Quality Development - The article highlights the need for comprehensive economic reforms to establish a high-level socialist market economy by 2035, focusing on the relationship between government and market roles [10]. - Emphasis is placed on improving the mechanisms for high-quality development, including enhancing the integration of the real economy and digital economy, and strengthening the resilience of industrial and supply chains [10]. Technological Innovation and Talent Development - The article stresses the importance of technological innovation as a core driver of economic development, with a focus on overcoming key technological challenges and achieving self-reliance in critical areas [12]. - It advocates for a coordinated approach to education, technology, and talent development, proposing reforms to enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [13].

Core Viewpoint - The next ten years are critical for China's modernization, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" period being essential for achieving socialist modernization and addressing key strategic tasks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - From 2026 to 2035, China aims to transition from a per capita GDP of $13,000 to the level of a moderately developed country, typically defined as $20,000 to $30,000 [2]. - The average annual GDP growth rate is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.2% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a target of around 5% to maintain a competitive position globally [5][6]. - China faces dual challenges of the "middle-income trap" and the "middle-technology trap," necessitating breakthroughs in development quality to enter the ranks of high-income countries [2][3]. Group 2: Reform and Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a high-level socialist market economy by 2035, requiring significant reforms in government-market relations and resource allocation [7][8]. - A focus on high-quality development mechanisms is essential, including the integration of digital and real economies, and enhancing the resilience of supply chains [8][9]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The next decade is seen as a critical period for technological innovation, with a need to overcome reliance on foreign technology and achieve self-sufficiency in key areas such as high-end chips and precision manufacturing [9][10]. - The goal is to shift from a "follower" to a "leader" in technology, with a comprehensive system for independent research and development [9][10]. Group 4: Education and Talent Development - Education, technology, and talent are foundational to China's modernization, requiring integrated reforms to enhance the national innovation system [10]. - The establishment of a new type of national system that combines centralized efforts with market mechanisms is crucial for fostering innovation and talent development [10].

欧洲未能激发突破性高科技创新，而是局限于中低端渐进式创新。 报告分析认为，这一结果部分是路径依赖导致的。过去20年，欧盟研发资金的部门分布几乎不变，一直 为汽车行业主导。但美国最大的研发投入公司已从2003年的汽车/制药转向2022年的软件巨头，中国也 快速转向高科技。即使是在欧洲具有优势的汽车部门，电动车转型也落后中美。欧盟汽车部门的研发资 金占全球45%，但软件仅为6%，美国软件研发资金占全球75%。 当地时间10月13日，新晋诺贝尔经济学奖得主、法国经济学家阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）在与瑞典皇家 科学院的通话中说道，欧洲各国必须清醒认识到，自身在技术竞争上已落后于美国和中国，并应设法改 变这一局面。 阿吉翁认为，这背后的原因是，欧洲缺乏适当的政策和制度来激发突破性高科技创新，而是局限于中低 端渐进式创新。 德国Ifo经济研究所工业组织与新技术中心副主任、高级经济学家切尔尼希博士（Dr. Nina Czernich）接 受第一财经记者采访时也认同了这一观点。她称，德国在新兴技术领域的落后，部分源于其对汽车和机 械等传统强势产业的过度依赖，"无论是公共政策还是私营企业，都倾向于依托德国引以为傲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of "involutionary competition" in various industries, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to promote product quality and orderly market competition, as highlighted in the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1][5][6]. Understanding "Involutionary Competition" - "Involutionary competition" refers to a form of homogenized and disorderly competition, resulting in excessive investment without improving output efficiency, leading to resource misallocation [10][11]. - It manifests in two dimensions: horizontal competition among peers, characterized by over-investment and price wars, and vertical competition, where dominant firms transfer competitive pressure to suppliers and retailers, disrupting market order [11][12]. Causes of "Involutionary Competition" - The root causes include macroeconomic oversupply and microeconomic market failures. Oversupply leads to a negative cycle, while market failures can stem from blind investments and structural power imbalances [22][23]. - The article identifies the need to combat "involution" to achieve reasonable price recovery and promote sustainable innovation, shifting competition from price to value [31][35]. Effective Measures to Address "Involutionary Competition" - The current approach to combating "involution" is more market-oriented and legalistic compared to previous capacity reduction efforts, focusing on innovation and consumer demand [3][44]. - Industries likely to benefit from these measures include coal, steel, construction materials, chemicals, and emerging sectors like photovoltaic and electric vehicles, which are currently experiencing "involutionary competition" [6][66]. Regulatory Framework and Industry Response - Recent regulatory actions include collective production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector and commitments from major automotive companies to limit payment terms to suppliers [6][9]. - The government has implemented various laws to ensure fair competition, such as the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" and the "Payment Guarantee for Small and Medium Enterprises" [9][17]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The article suggests that industries with significant "involutionary competition" characteristics, such as declining capacity utilization and increased sales expenses, should be closely monitored for the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [64][66]. - The transition from price competition to value competition is expected to enhance product quality and long-term profitability, aiding in the overall industrial upgrade and high-quality development [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price war initiated by leading electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has triggered a chain reaction in the industry, leading to significant market volatility and a decline in the market value of major automakers, with losses exceeding 100 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The price war has resulted in a widespread drop in stock prices for automakers, with leading companies experiencing a market value loss of over 100 billion yuan [1] - Local government policies, driven by GDP competition, have created a distorted market environment, leading to overcapacity and price reductions in various sectors, including the photovoltaic industry [1] - The rampant practice of "zero-kilometer used cars" has emerged as a symptom of industry internalization, distorting pricing systems and undermining brand reputation [1] Group 2: Innovation Challenges - The survival anxiety among companies has led to a reduction in R&D budgets, with funds originally allocated for key technological advancements being redirected to subsidies for terminal promotions [2] - Tier 1 suppliers have been forced to cut costs, resulting in a decline in R&D investment ratios, which has contributed to a homogenization of products in the automotive industry [2] - The dual pressure from developed countries' technological barriers and Southeast Asian countries' cost advantages has made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to innovate and upgrade [2] Group 3: Solutions and Recommendations - To break the cycle of internalization, there is a need to create an "innovation-friendly" ecosystem by optimizing the existing institutional framework and promoting fair competition across regions [3] - Companies should focus on core technological innovations, increase R&D investments, and foster collaboration within the supply chain to enhance overall efficiency [3] - Macro policies should guide resources towards high-tech sectors and encourage consumer willingness to pay a premium for technological innovations, particularly in emerging industries like electric vehicles [4] Group 4: Long-term Transformation - The transformation away from internalization is crucial for national development, requiring a shift in development logic to prioritize innovation and entrepreneurial spirit [5] - Achieving high-quality development in the automotive industry and manufacturing sector necessitates a transition from a "sweat economy" to a "smart economy" through long-term collaboration among institutions, companies, and society [5]