Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariff policy on April 2 will have a significant impact on global macro - asset classes, including financial derivatives and commodity markets, and the subsequent policy hedging will be a key variable [1][2][3]. - The global market is shifting from the progressive tariff expectation in Q1 to a more definite stagflation trading logic. High tariffs and potential retaliatory measures may exacerbate the macro - economic pattern of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [2]. - Policy hedging from the Trump administration and major economies such as China and Europe will shape the market's main trend in Q2 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Potential Impact on Macro and Financial Derivatives Markets - **Policy Features and Initial Market Reactions**: The reciprocal tariff policy has some buffer measures, including exemptions for certain commodities and a phased implementation schedule. When the policy was announced, U.S. stock futures declined, U.S. bond yields dropped, the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated, gold oscillated at a high level, and the Japanese yen strengthened [2]. - **Mid - term Market Logic**: The global market is moving towards a stagflation trading logic. The U.S. will first face "inflation" and then "stagnation", while major trade - surplus countries like China will first face the challenge of "stagnation" and then drive re - inflation through policy hedging [2]. - **Policy Focus**: The U.S. may implement tax cuts and the Fed may consider early interest - rate cuts. The pace of stimulus policies in major economies such as China and Europe will affect market expectations [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In Q2, the U.S. "hard data" is likely to cool down. The simultaneous weakness of U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar continues, and the short - term depreciation space of the RMB is limited. China's domestic demand policies are clear, and the key lies in the implementation rhythm [3]. - **Stock and Bond Markets**: Currently, it is the transition period from the re - evaluation of Greater China's technology assets to the implementation of domestic demand policies. The stock index is in high - level oscillation, waiting for domestic demand policies. The bond market is shifting to oscillation, and in 2025, if there are two interest - rate cuts with a reduction of 30 - 40bp, the trading window of the treasury bond market should be noted, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% - 1.9% [5]. 3.2 Potential Impact on Commodity Markets 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals - **Policy Background and Impact Mechanism**: The unexpected tariff is a sign of the acceleration of the de - globalization process since 2016. It aims to solve the U.S. debt problem and reshape the global production and trade pattern. It will reduce U.S. imports, increase government revenue, but also put pressure on employment and consumption. It may also lead to more reciprocal tariffs globally and weaken the U.S. dollar's status [7]. - **Specific Metals Analysis** - **Copper**: Exempted from the current reciprocal tariff, but there is a possibility of future tariff increases. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in Q2, with the trading range estimated at 77,000 - 81,000 RMB [8]. - **Aluminum**: A 25% tariff on imported aluminum has been in effect since March 12. The tariff will be borne by U.S. end - customers, and its impact on China is relatively low [9]. - **Gold**: Exempted from the reciprocal tariff. The gold price is strong, but liquidity risks should be watched out for if U.S. stocks fall continuously. The gold price may fluctuate more due to the development of the trade war [11]. 3.2.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The reciprocal tariff policy will not directly affect the trade flow of oil and gas commodities. However, it may increase global economic growth pressure and thus reduce oil demand. The market is concerned about whether the EU and South Korea will impose tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports as counter - measures [12][14]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The overall trend of fuel - related products follows that of crude oil. The demand growth rate of marine fuel may decline due to the trade war, and the negative impact will be more concentrated on the low - sulfur fuel oil market [15]. - **Natural Gas**: The direct impact of the tariff on natural gas is small. Attention should be paid to Canada's potential counter - measures on natural gas exports to the U.S., China's resale of U.S. long - term contract LNG, and the impact on European gas prices [16]. - **LPG**: The U.S. is a net exporter of LPG. China may be cautious in imposing counter - tariffs on U.S. LPG. If counter - tariffs are imposed, the price of LPG will rise significantly, and domestic chemical demand will shrink [17]. 3.2.3 Chemicals - **Overall Impact**: The reciprocal tariff will drag down the cost of chemical products due to the decline in crude oil prices and have a great impact on exports. The overall impact on China and Southeast Asian emerging manufacturing countries is negative [19]. - **Specific Chemical Products** - **Textile and Clothing - related (PTA, Short - fiber)**: The reciprocal tariff will directly affect China's textile and clothing exports to the U.S. and also affect the export of polyester filaments to emerging manufacturing countries, dragging down the export of the polyester and textile - clothing industries [20]. - **Plastic Products**: The tariff increase will lead to higher costs for plastic product enterprises, reduce export speed, and affect raw material demand. The overall impact is negative [21]. - **Home Appliances (Styrene)**: The reciprocal tariff may drag down the demand for styrene in China. The impact on directly and indirectly exported chemical products is negative, but the final impact depends on the negotiation results between countries and the U.S. [22]. 3.2.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: China's steel exports to the U.S. are relatively low, but the indirect impact on steel exports is large, which will put pressure on steel prices, especially hot - rolled coils. The market should pay attention to tariff policies, domestic demand recovery, and macro - hedging policies [23][24][25]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The U.S. tariff policy mainly affects the major export destinations of U.S. corn. It has little impact on China's domestic corn price, and domestic corn prices should focus on their own supply - demand situation [26]. - **Soybeans**: China's soybean imports are mainly from South America in Q2 and Q3, so the impact of tariffs on the supply chain in these two quarters is small. Attention should be paid to the supply and procurement rhythm in Q4. The demand for U.S. soybean oil is expected to be good [27]. - **Palm Oil**: The U.S. tariff increase on Indonesia and Malaysia will be unfavorable for their palm oil exports in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is still strong [28]. - **Canola**: The U.S. reciprocal tariff list does not include Canada (except for steel, aluminum, and automobiles). The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada in canola oil is highly dependent, and the continuation of trade conflicts will be a loss for both sides [29]. - **Soft Commodities** - **Cotton**: The U.S. tariff increase on China will further reduce China's textile and clothing export competitiveness, and domestic cotton consumption may be negatively affected, with short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices likely to be weak [30]. - **Rubber**: The tariff increase will reduce China's tire export market share in the U.S., have a negative impact on rubber consumption, and drive down domestic rubber futures prices [31].