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股指期货策略早餐-20250618
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term, narrow - range fluctuations; medium - term, range - bound. Suggest holding short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term, short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong; medium - term, bullish. Suggest holding long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the medium - term. Suggest continuing to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Short - term View**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3840, 3900] [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas geopolitical risks reduce global risk appetite; domestic May fundamental data is weak, with consumption strong, production stable, and investment weak, and financial data is mixed. The market is in a pattern of frequent style switching [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Short - term View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Inter - bank liquidity is stable and loose, overseas geopolitical risks boost global risk - aversion, and domestic May fundamental data is weak, strengthening easing expectations [3][4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - **Short - term View**: Steel prices are weak [5] - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under overall pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5] - **Core Logic**: - Raw material inventory pressure is large, and supply pressure of iron ore and coal - coke is expected to increase. High furnace profitability will increase finished steel supply [5]. - Downstream steel consumption is poor. Plate exports are not recovering, and building material demand is weak due to the off - season and lack of project funds [5][6].