逆周期和跨周期并重
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宝城期货股指期货早报(2025年12月17日)-20251217
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 01:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound. The short - term policy driving force is limited, and the trading enthusiasm of funds is weak. Although the central economic work conference continues the expression of a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, the total policy is not beyond expectations. The policy will support the economy in 2026 but focus more on structural adjustment, with the focus on domestic - cycle consumption and technology. The motivation for policy intensification within the year is insufficient, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. In the short term, the policy momentum is lacking, and the stock index needs to consolidate through fluctuations. However, as the expectation of policy benefits gradually ferments, the market risk appetite will gradually pick up [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound". The core logic is that short - term policy benefits have limited driving force, and the trading enthusiasm of funds is weak [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound". Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and declined. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 46.3 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The recent decline in trading volume is due to the lack of market driving force and the weakening of trading enthusiasm. The central economic work conference's policy statement is not beyond expectations, and the policy will support the economy in 2026 while focusing on structural adjustment. The motivation for policy intensification within the year is insufficient, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. In the short term, the policy momentum is lacking, and the stock index needs to consolidate through fluctuations. Currently, the stock index is still within the oscillation range, and the market risk appetite will gradually pick up as the expectation of policy benefits ferments [5]