Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In January 2026, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (9.06%) > global stocks (3.02%) > global bonds (0.94%) > RMB (0.46%) > 0% > USD (-1.35%) [2] - The global fund manager sentiment index rose from 7.3 to 8.1, marking the highest level since July 2021, with cash levels dropping to a new low of 3.2% [5] - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield reached 4.0%, raising concerns about Japan's debt amid a proposed ¥25 trillion supplementary budget [6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair led to significant market volatility, with the dollar index rebounding after hitting a low on January 27, 2026 [3] - The implied volatility skew of U.S. Treasury options has been rising since mid-October 2025, indicating that investors are more concerned about inflation risks than economic recession [4] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been increasing, suggesting a potential rise in the profitability of the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - The divergence between the dollar OIS and the performance of cyclical versus defensive sectors in U.S. stocks indicates a "Goldilocks" environment, but high valuations in cyclical stocks may face correction risks if OIS rates rise [5] - The sentiment among global fund managers indicates a shift in preference, with geopolitical conflicts now seen as the largest tail risk, as opposed to previous concerns about AI bubbles and bond yield volatility [11] - The expectation of RMB appreciation has led to the shadow variable of the counter-cyclical factor exceeding 500 basis points, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards Chinese assets [10]

Group 1: Macro Trends - In January 2026, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (9.06%) > global stocks (3.02%) > global bonds (0.94%) > RMB (0.46%) > 0% > USD (-1.35%) [2] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair suggests a significant policy shift, advocating for a restructuring of the $6.6 trillion asset portfolio, which may support the USD and tighten monetary policy [3] - The US Treasury bond market shows rising implied volatility skew, indicating investors are more concerned about inflation risks than recession risks, leading to higher premiums for hedging against rising rates [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - Global fund manager sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021, with the sentiment index rising from 7.3 to 8.1, while cash levels fell to a record low of 3.2% [5] - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield hit 4.0%, raising concerns about Japan's debt amid a proposed ¥25 trillion supplementary budget, which could worsen inflation and debt burdens [6] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, indicating stronger industrial activity in China, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - The divergence between the USD OIS and US cyclical sectors suggests a "Goldilocks" environment, but if OIS rates rise due to inflation data, cyclical stocks may face significant correction risks [5] - Gold prices surged over 35% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026, driven by geopolitical concerns and Fed rate cut expectations, despite a recent pullback due to Warsh's nomination [9] - The shadow variable of the counter-cyclical factor has surpassed 500 basis points, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation amid resilient economic data [10]