前日本央行审议委员安达诚司（Seiji Adachi）周二表示，由于市场对政府扩张性财政政策的担忧，日本 可能面临日元进一步下跌和国债收益率持续上升的局面。 尽管日本央行上周五决定将利率上调至0.75%的30年高点，但日元汇率仍出现下跌。市场将日本央行行 长植田和男在会后发表的言论解读为，该行不急于进一步加息。 但在今年3月之前一直担任日本央行理事会成员的安达诚司说，日元下跌主要是因为市场对日本维持财 政秩序的能力产生了怀疑。 "尽管日美利差正在缩小，但日元正在走弱。这意味着这与日本央行的政策关系不大，"他在接受采访时 表示。 安达诚司说，如果债券市场持续抛售，日本央行可能被迫重新审视其债券缩减计划，或提出一个框架， 以救助因持有债券而遭受巨额损失的小型银行。 他说："在高市早苗如此有力地将她的政策标榜为积极的财政政策之后，很难消除市场对日本财政状况 的疑虑。债券收益率上升将是明年日本经济面临的最大风险。" 责任编辑：于健 SF069 前日本央行审议委员安达诚司（Seiji Adachi）周二表示，由于市场对政府扩张性财政政策的担忧，日本 可能面临日元进一步下跌和国债收益率持续上升的局面。 尽管日本央行上周五 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses a fundamental shift in the global asset pricing paradigm from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase, characterized by significant "K-shaped divergence" among various asset classes [1][2][6] - The report highlights that U.S. equities continue to reach new highs despite ongoing employment data declines, indicating a desensitization to recession pricing [1][2] - Gold has broken free from the suppression of high real interest rates, exhibiting an independent market trend, while the relationship between copper prices and inflation expectations has weakened [1][2] Group 1: K-shaped Divergence - The K-shaped divergence is evident as U.S. stocks show a significant deviation from employment data, with a divergence degree of approximately 140%-170% for U.S. stocks and interest rates, and over 400% for gold [1][2][6] - The core driver of this divergence is the embedded "fiscal risk premium" in asset prices, which has become a critical variable since 2022 [1][2][6] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - Quantitative assessments reveal that the divergence between nominal interest rates and implied rates for gold and copper has reached a maximum of 660 basis points since 2022 [1][2][6] - The initial phase of the fiscal risk premium has been primarily priced through extreme increases in gold, rather than directly impacting nominal interest rates [1][2][6] Group 3: Future Scenarios - Three potential macro paths for the evolution of K-shaped divergence are outlined: 1. A mild recovery scenario where the market remains in the gold coordinate system, awaiting a correction in copper prices and inflation expectations [2][6] 2. An inflation runaway scenario leading to political shocks and visible fiscal risks, resulting in soaring interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar [2][6] 3. A scenario of economic contraction where worsening employment may trigger liquidity pressures, although the safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries may limit their downside [2][6] Group 4: Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's performance is significantly influenced by "relative fiscal risk," with non-U.S. economies facing earlier fiscal pressures, thereby supporting the structural strength of the dollar [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a dangerous and divided phase driven by "fiscal dominance," where traditional macroeconomic logic has failed, leading to a significant divergence in asset pricing, particularly between U.S. stocks and gold, which are now tools for hedging fiat currency credit risk [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2023, global asset pricing has entered a new "fiscal dominance" phase, with traditional macroeconomic transmission mechanisms largely ineffective [2]. - The market exhibits a pronounced "K-shaped divergence," where U.S. stocks continue to rise despite declining employment signals, while gold reaches new highs in a high real interest rate environment [2][3]. - The core risk stems not from the economic cycle itself but from hidden fiscal pressures, with a current implied interest rate gap of up to 600 basis points [2][10]. Group 2: Asset Pricing Changes - The traditional macro anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of U.S. stocks from economic fundamentals, as evidenced by the S&P 500 reaching new highs despite declining job openings [3]. - Gold has completely ignored the pressures of high real interest rates, showing an independent trend that diverges from TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) [6]. - Copper's price movements are no longer closely tied to traditional inflation logic, indicating a broader shift in asset pricing dynamics [7]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The deviation of U.S. stocks and interest rates from traditional models is significant, with a divergence of approximately 140%-170% [11]. - Gold exhibits the most extreme "decoupling" characteristics, with a deviation exceeding 400% [13]. - Copper shows a relatively moderate deviation of about 44% [16]. Group 4: Future Pathways - The implied fiscal risk premium will not disappear but will shift between different assets, with three potential macro pathways outlined: a rational return of U.S. stocks, a dual consistency between stocks and gold, and a mutual understanding between stocks and bonds [19][21]. - A mild recovery is likely in the short term, with the market remaining in a "golden coordinate system" illusion, while inflation expectations are suppressed [21]. - If inflation becomes uncontrollable due to political pressures, fiscal risks will become more apparent, leading to rising interest rates and a potential decline in risk assets [22].

Group 1 - The report discusses a significant shift in the pricing paradigm of major assets, characterized by a "K-shaped divergence" where traditional macroeconomic anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of asset prices from economic fundamentals [4][10][37] - The report quantifies the extent of K-shaped divergence, revealing that the S&P 500 has deviated by approximately 141% from employment data, while gold has shown an extreme deviation of over 400%, indicating a fundamental shift from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase [4][20][37] - The analysis highlights the relationship between interest rates, copper, and gold, noting that since 2022, the nominal interest rates have diverged significantly from implied rates derived from copper and gold, with a maximum gap of 660 basis points [4][38][41] Group 2 - The report introduces a unique "gold coordinate system" perspective, suggesting that in this framework, the S&P 500 aligns more closely with employment data, indicating that the stock market has transformed into a "gold-like" asset that hedges against currency depreciation [4][42][46] - The analysis of various asset models shows that the extreme divergence of the S&P 500 and gold reflects a deep-seated fiscal risk premium embedded in asset prices, with a notable 600 basis point gap between actual interest rates and implied equilibrium rates [4][59][54] - The report outlines potential macro paths for the future evolution of K-shaped divergence, including scenarios of moderate recovery, inflationary pressures leading to political shocks, and recessionary pathways, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding mid-term recession risks [4][61][69]

新华财经上海11月19日电 日本国债市场出现大面积抛售，多期限国债收益率全面上行，其中10年期国债收益率于11月19日早盘攀升至 1.765%，创2008年6月以来新高。 多家机构分析指出，本轮债市动荡的核心驱动因素，是投资者对高市早苗政府可能推出超大规模财政刺激计划的深切忧虑。 多期限日债遭遇抛售 行情数据显示，10年期日债收益率11月19日早盘上涨2个基点至1.765%，为该指标自2008年6月以来的最高水平。抛售潮席卷各期限日债 品类。超长期限债券中，20年期国债收益率达到2.815%，创1999年以来高点，40年期国债收益率更达到3.695%的历史峰值。国债收益率 与价格呈反向关系，收益率飙升意味着债券价格大幅下跌。 财政风险溢价重新显现 高盛表示，随着投资者开始担忧日本推出的刺激规模可能大于预期，日本的财政风险溢价正在回归，这将给长期国债和日元带来压力。 业内人士认为，由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率 持续上升。 随着下周40年期债券拍卖的临近，市场预计短期内日债收益率可能继续维持高位震荡。投资者正密切关注日本政府最终敲定的财政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by expectations of a large fiscal stimulus package from the new government led by Prime Minister Kishi [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.765%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1]. - The 40-year government bond yield hit a record high of 3.695%, indicating increased selling pressure in the long-end of the bond market [1]. - The results of the 20-year bond auction showed weak investor demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping from 3.56 to 3.28, reflecting a decline in investor interest [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Stimulus Expectations - Initial expectations for the supplementary budget were around 14 trillion yen, but indications suggest it could expand to 17 trillion yen, with proposals even reaching 25 trillion yen [6]. - The market is concerned that such a large spending plan will necessitate the issuance of more government bonds, leading to additional supply pressure [6]. - Analysts note that the government's dovish stance may require the issuance of longer-term bonds to finance the spending plan, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Global Impact - The widening "tail" in the auction results, from 0.13 to 0.31, is seen as a signal of weak demand, with the 20-year bond yield nearing its highest level since 1999 at 2.795% [5]. - The rapid rise in Japanese government bond yields could have spillover effects on global markets, as Japan's long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy has positioned its bonds as a benchmark in the global debt market [6]. - Concerns are growing that the risks associated with long-term bonds may spread to other markets, reminiscent of the bond market sell-off in May [7].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to its highest level in 17 years, driven by investor expectations of a substantial fiscal spending plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government, leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.765%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1]. - Longer-term bonds also experienced significant sell-offs, with the 40-year bond yield reaching a historical peak of 3.695% and the 20-year bond yield climbing to 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [3]. - The market's reaction is attributed to a proposal from a ruling party committee to draft a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately 161 billion USD) to stimulate the economy and protect households from rising prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's economy is facing persistent downward risks, as indicated by a preliminary report showing a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP for Q3, the first decline since Q1 2024 [4]. - The government’s desire to expand fiscal spending is linked to these economic challenges, raising concerns about potential fiscal risks if the supplementary budget is as large as currently discussed [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investors are reacting to the potential for rising inflation and interest rates, as well as weakened demand from traditional buyers of Japanese bonds, which have seen a decline for two consecutive years [5]. - Year-to-date, the 30-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by over 100 basis points, contrasting with a decline in the same maturity U.S. bond yield [6]. - The recent depreciation of the yen has sparked discussions about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing the significant 155 mark [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently experienced volatility, hitting a nine-month low, prompting concerns from the Japanese Finance Minister about potential market interventions and increasing safe-haven demand for the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently around 155.10, having reached a high of 155.37, the highest since February 4 [1]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has expressed caution regarding the "one-sided rapid fluctuations" in the foreign exchange market, indicating a higher likelihood of intervention [1]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor stated that the central bank is adjusting monetary support to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, closely monitoring the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the economy [1]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. due to potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support the yen, while rising domestic long-term interest rates could pressure the yen [2]. - The Japanese government is considering a significant economic stimulus plan of approximately $149 billion, raising concerns about increasing national debt and steepening the yield curve of Japanese government bonds [2]. - Japan's unexpected GDP decline in Q3 has led to skepticism about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the short term, adding further pressure on the yen [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Recommendations - Investors are worried that the government's fiscal policies may exert downward pressure on the yen, with expectations that the government will tolerate a moderate weakening of the yen to support corporate profits and wage growth [2]. - Barclays economists suggest that further fiscal expansion will likely keep the USD/JPY at elevated levels due to the yen's sensitivity to fiscal risks [2]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the market's sensitivity to fiscal issues has increased, indicating that any policy adjustments could lead to significant volatility in the yen [3].

Group 1 - A proposal has been made by a committee of ruling party lawmakers in Japan to create a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately 161 billion USD) to fund a stimulus plan proposed by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi [1] - The proposed budget significantly surpasses last year's supplementary budget of 13.9 trillion yen, indicating a growing call among Japanese politicians for increased spending to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households [1] - Since taking office last month, Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has committed to developing a large-scale spending plan aimed at easing the financial burden on families and promoting investment [1] Group 2 - Japan's long-term government bonds have seen a decline, with investors increasingly concerned that the upcoming large-scale economic stimulus plan by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi may harm public finances [2] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since its issuance in 2007, while yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds also increased [2] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that as investors worry about the potential scale of the stimulus exceeding expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, which could pressure long-term Japanese bonds and the yen [2]

Group 1: Japanese Stock Market Reaction - The Japanese stock market experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index showing volatility and major consumer sectors like tourism, airlines, and retail suffering losses [1] - Notable declines included a drop of over 12% for Mitsukoshi Isetan, and declines exceeding 9% for companies like Sony and Japan Airlines [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.745%, marking the highest level since August 1999 [3] - Weak GDP data has led to a downward adjustment in market expectations for Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, contributing to the yen's weakness [3] Group 3: Impact of Political Statements - High-profile political statements by Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo have led to increased geopolitical uncertainty, prompting criticism and concerns about Japan's national crisis [8][11] - The deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is expected to have a significant negative impact on Japan's economy, particularly through reduced Chinese tourism [17][18] Group 4: Tourism and Economic Impact - China is Japan's largest trading partner, and a decline in Chinese tourists could lead to a GDP decrease of 0.36%, equating to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen (around 101.16 billion RMB) [12][19] - Chinese tourists accounted for about 25% of all foreign visitors to Japan, with nearly 7.5 million visits in the first nine months of the year [14] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts have indicated that the market's future performance is contingent on maintaining high political support for the government and the ruling party [19] - Concerns over potential government stimulus measures have led to increased pressure on long-term government bonds and the yen [19]