周三（9月3日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3369，跌幅0.17%，昨日收盘报1.3392。昨日，英镑兑美 元汇率暴跌超1%，30年期英国国债收益率升至1998年以来最高水平，凸显市场对英国财政状况的担忧 加剧。 英国国债遭遇广泛抛售，同时全球主要债券市场因债务水平上升问题再度承压。英镑创下6月17日以来 最大单日跌幅，反映市场对政府财政约束能力的担忧持续升温。劳埃德银行外汇策略师尼克·肯尼迪表 示："英国财政背景持续堪忧，利率市场已在夏季积累风险溢价，投资者现在要求英镑也获得更高风险 溢价。" 30年期英债收益率当日上涨5个基点至5.69%，创1998年5月以来最高水平。英镑兑美元最新下 跌1.2%至1.33美元，兑欧元下跌0.7%至1欧元兑86.98便士，成为当日表现最差的G10货币。财政大臣雷 切尔·里维斯预计将在秋季预算中提高税收以实现财政目标，这可能给经济增长带来额外挑战。 荷兰合 作银行外汇策略主管简·弗利指出："随着秋季预算临近，英国极易受到财政风险影响，这将继续成为英 镑的逆风因素。" 英镑兑美元K线形态上近期多根实体较短、影线均衡，整体表现为区间内的多次试探，而非趋势性的单 向攻击。但9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current crisis in the U.S. bond market is driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal and current account deficits at current price levels, which can only be addressed by Congress through fiscal tightening, not by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intervention [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Foreign Investment - Deutsche Bank reports a failed auction of U.S. bonds and a weakening dollar, indicating that foreign investors are "boycotting" U.S. assets [1]. - The bank warns of increased volatility in the market as foreign investors are unwilling to finance U.S. deficits at current levels [1][4]. - The behavior of Asian investors is highlighted as a key indicator for the resilience of U.S. stocks, with a focus on their reactions during Asian trading hours [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Resilience - Deutsche Bank suggests that the resilience of the U.S. stock market will be tested, as the current environment makes it difficult for stocks to maintain strength [3]. - The increase in U.S. yields and stock prices during 2023-2024 was based on a reassessment of growth expectations, which is now overshadowed by rising fiscal risk premiums [3]. Group 3: Solutions to the Crisis - The bank emphasizes that only Congress can resolve the fiscal issues, with two potential solutions: implementing stricter fiscal policies or allowing the non-dollar value of U.S. debt to decrease significantly to attract foreign investors [4]. - Financial repression measures, such as shortening the duration of U.S. debt, have been discussed but come with risks of increased debt rollover [4].

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO's report suggests that the current macroeconomic developments are self-destructive for the U.S., advocating for a reduced allocation to the dollar and a shift towards long-duration bonds in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK [1] Group 1: Dollar's Status - The report indicates that the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency is not guaranteed, as changes in U.S. trade policy prompt investors to reassess long-term assumptions about the U.S. investment environment [2] - Recent declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasury bonds suggest a potential shift towards a more multipolar world, reducing reliance on a single reserve currency [2] Group 2: Investment Paradigm Shift - PIMCO notes a transformation in the paradigm of holding U.S. assets, highlighting that the U.S. has historically benefited from a consumption-driven economy, leading to a capital account surplus [3] - The disruption caused by tariffs may complicate the financing of the U.S. dual current account and fiscal deficits, leading to investor confusion regarding the extent of U.S. asset holdings [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The report outlines that the U.S. faces high sovereign debt levels and inflation exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, complicating the Fed's ability to balance inflation expectations with growth prospects [4] - Other regions may experience currency appreciation, allowing central banks like the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank to adopt more dovish stances [4] Group 4: Shift Towards Domestic Assets - PIMCO emphasizes that as the global order evolves, U.S. investors may prioritize capital returns over equity returns, leading to a diversification of investments [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - PIMCO recommends a reduced allocation to the dollar due to the U.S. having the largest negative net international investment position, suggesting that the dollar may weaken as this balance adjusts [6] - The report advocates for a higher allocation to global duration, particularly in Europe, emerging markets, Japan, and the UK, as these options appear more attractive compared to the U.S. [6] - It also suggests benefiting from a steepening yield curve and reducing credit exposure, anticipating a widening gap between investment-grade and high-yield credit [6]