财政风险溢价

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美债砸盘、美元也跌,德银警告:这次就算美联储QE也救不了!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-22 07:42
Core Viewpoint - The current crisis in the U.S. bond market is driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal and current account deficits at current price levels, which can only be addressed by Congress through fiscal tightening, not by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intervention [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Foreign Investment - Deutsche Bank reports a failed auction of U.S. bonds and a weakening dollar, indicating that foreign investors are "boycotting" U.S. assets [1]. - The bank warns of increased volatility in the market as foreign investors are unwilling to finance U.S. deficits at current levels [1][4]. - The behavior of Asian investors is highlighted as a key indicator for the resilience of U.S. stocks, with a focus on their reactions during Asian trading hours [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Resilience - Deutsche Bank suggests that the resilience of the U.S. stock market will be tested, as the current environment makes it difficult for stocks to maintain strength [3]. - The increase in U.S. yields and stock prices during 2023-2024 was based on a reassessment of growth expectations, which is now overshadowed by rising fiscal risk premiums [3]. Group 3: Solutions to the Crisis - The bank emphasizes that only Congress can resolve the fiscal issues, with two potential solutions: implementing stricter fiscal policies or allowing the non-dollar value of U.S. debt to decrease significantly to attract foreign investors [4]. - Financial repression measures, such as shortening the duration of U.S. debt, have been discussed but come with risks of increased debt rollover [4].