保利置业 20251229 摘要 保利置业 2025 年 1-11 月全口径拿地规模达 150 亿元，拿地策略根据 市场、销售和回款动态调整，权益拿地和权益销售比值以往设定为 0.4，但会根据市场情况调整。 公司 19-21 年项目剩余货量约 400 亿元，行业调整压力较大；22-24 年项目带来利润，并帮助消化前期货量，代售货值 400 多亿；2025 年 拿地方值约 500 亿，总代售货量约 1,800 亿，好资产比例超过一半，每 年可消化 300 多亿。 保利置业在固收端表现稳定，关注市场情绪和万科事件影响。2021 年 以来，回款、销售稳定，杠杆率逐年下降。截至 2025 年 6 月底，平均 资金成本为 2.9%，现金流稳定，实现正向净现金流入。 公司有新的融资计划，若在业绩发布前完成，将增强市场信心。2026 年到期债务约 50 多亿元，公司每年有资金规划，杠杆率持续改善，经 营现金流为正，偿债风险较低。 保利置业有息负债结构中，银行贷款占比 60%，公开债券占比 35%，CMBS 等其他形式占比剩余部分。截至 2025 年底，CMBS 成本 为 3.38%，总负债 682 亿元，有抵押部分占 38 ...

Core Insights - The land market in major cities such as Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, and Wuhan has shown significant activity, with high competition and premium rates for residential land sales [1][2] - In June, the total area of residential land sold in the four first-tier cities reached 1.7425 million square meters, with a total transaction value of 51.093 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase compared to previous months [1][6] - The average premium rate for land transactions in June was 6.3%, reflecting a decline from the previous quarter's average of 7.7% [8][9] Land Transaction Highlights - In Wuhan, a land plot was sold for a floor price of nearly 28,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 54.36% [1] - Chengdu's residential land in the Jin Niu District sold for over 20,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 23.93% [1] - In Hangzhou, a competitive bidding for a core unit plot resulted in a total price of 5.578 billion yuan, setting a new record for the area [2] Market Trends - The land market is experiencing a seasonal increase in transaction volume, with a notable rise in both the area sold and the total transaction value [1][8] - High-quality land in core urban areas continues to attract significant interest from developers, maintaining high premium rates despite a generally subdued real estate market [3][9] - The trend of local enterprises acquiring high-premium land in third and fourth-tier cities is evident, as these companies have a better understanding of local market dynamics [4] Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai led the land transaction amounts in June, each exceeding 20 billion yuan, with Beijing at 22.631 billion yuan and Shanghai at 20.509 billion yuan [6] - Other cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu also reported strong performance, with transaction amounts exceeding 16 billion yuan [6] - The overall land market is showing signs of structural recovery, although confidence in the market has not fully returned, particularly in lower-tier cities [9]