Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2][7] Report Core View - The oil market has been dominated by positive news recently, and short-term oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [3] - The fuel oil market has continued to be weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount. The high-sulfur fuel oil supply pattern remains loose, while the low-sulfur fuel oil is under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from overseas refinery resumption and the improvement of supply and demand structure by shipping and power generation demand [4] - The overall supply of asphalt has slightly increased, but the weekly shipment volume has decreased, the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The PCE data to be released tonight is the only inflation guidance before the Fed's December meeting [3] - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan has stalled, weakening the market's expectation of Russian oil export recovery [3] - After the Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea facilities, Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas condensate production dropped to 1.9 million barrels per day, lower than the November average [3] - OPEC's oil production in November decreased due to the shutdown of some member states, and its supply was further below the target and slightly lower than the October output [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount, and weak market sentiment [4] - Before the substantial progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the geopolitical risk premium of high-sulfur fuel oil is difficult to subside, and the subsequent Russian resource shipments may slow down. However, the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East will increase shipments and partially offset the reduction caused by geopolitical factors [4] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is mainly disturbed by the unplanned maintenance of overseas refineries. Although the return of the Banyan refinery and the delay of the Azur refinery's resumption have relieved the short-term supply pressure, it is still under pressure due to the weakening of refined oil cracking [4] Asphalt - Recently, some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai, Wenzhou Zhongyou, and Shandong Shengxing have stopped production or switched to producing residual oil, while Ke石化 and Liaohe Petrochemical have increased production, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply [5] - The weekly shipment volume is less than 400,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period in the past four years [5] - The social inventory has decreased slightly from the previous week, and the year-on-year increase has gradually expanded since the inflection point of turning from decrease to increase in late October. The refinery inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and the overall commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down [5]