Core Viewpoint - The discussion of layoffs among U.S. businesses is increasing, driven by expectations of weak demand and productivity gains from artificial intelligence technology [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Companies are shifting from a "no hiring, no layoffs" approach to planning for layoffs within the last four to six weeks [1]. - The change in corporate behavior reflects a fundamental shift in employment strategies, moving away from static hiring practices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Waller urges the Federal Reserve to consider a 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting, citing risks in the job market [3]. - Current inflation levels are only slightly above the Fed's 2% target, and Waller expects inflation to decline further due to economic slowdown pressures [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - There is significant disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a pause due to inflation still being nearly 1% above target [5]. - Waller acknowledges the serious divisions among policymakers but views this as a positive aspect of internal discussions [5]. Group 4: Data and Economic Assessment - Despite challenges from government shutdowns delaying economic data releases, Waller believes the Fed can still effectively assess the economy using private sector data and state unemployment claims [7]. - The upcoming December policy meeting will be closely watched as differing viewpoints will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [7].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust all tools as necessary [1] - The assessment of information and inflation is largely consistent [1] - Future monetary policy stance will be determined by data [1] Group 2 - The economy has shown overall resilience to date [2] - Asset purchase programs and emergency pandemic bond purchases are decreasing at a measured and predictable pace [2] - Decisions will be based on core inflation and transmission strength [2]

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