与此同时，9月份制造业PMI终值从49.5小幅上调至49.8，主要受德国影响。然而，该数据证实制造业动能减弱，该指数在今年早些时候强劲反弹后跌至50以 下。随着前期投入效应持续消退，我们预计年底前经济将进一步疲软，并预计第三季度和第四季度GDP环比增长均为0.1%。 在美国，最高法院暂时阻止了特朗普罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的企图，将该案推迟至2026年1月。这对库克理事和美联储的独立性而言都是一次重大胜利。 此外，根据ADP报告，美国9月份私营部门就业岗位减少3.2万个，远低于预期的增加5万个。由于过往数据不具有追溯性，年度基准修正值从9月份的数据中 减去了4.3万个就业岗位。虽然这缓解了整体疲软的影响，但结果仍然远低于预期。如果政府关门导致官方就业报告发布延迟，那么ADP数据可能是美联储 一段时间内唯一的就业数据。报告发布后，美国国债收益率下跌，欧元/美元走高。与此同时，ISM制造业指数从8月份的48.7小幅上升至9月份的49.1，略高 于预期的49.0。生产和就业的增长被新订单和出口订单的下降所抵消。价格指数跌至但仍处于历史高位。这些数据好坏参半，市场反应平淡。 瑞典9月份制造业PMI指数从8月份的55. ...

这一数据背后有许多因素。首先，印度2025年雨季表现正常，对农产品生长较为友好，关键产区降水分 布有所改善，不仅缓和了蔬菜价格波动，也稳定了市场对新季作物产量的预期，暂时抑制了食品通胀飙 升风险。其次，服务消费热度不减，航空客运量、酒店预订及娱乐消费保持强劲。服务业采购经理指数 （PMI）连续16个月处于扩张区间，需求旺盛推动相关价格刚性上涨。最后，输入性压力出现局部传 导，部分制造业原材料，例如金属、化工品等受地缘政治或供需等因素影响，成本压力正逐步向消费端 渗透。 印度通胀温和回升，反映出印度经济在刺激复苏与稳定价格间的脆弱平衡，印度政府和央行在政策方面 如"走钢丝"般难以放开手脚。尽管整体通胀率仍低于4%的目标中值，但核心通胀攀升与服务价格黏 性，正在压缩央行维持宽松政策的窗口。对印度政府和央行而言，无论是货币政策还是财政政策，既要 避免过早收紧以至于扼杀增长萌芽，又需防范核心通胀加剧形成工资和价格交替上涨的恶性循环。 从数据来看，印度通胀水平仍总体可控。2.07%的涨幅虽打破近一年的低位徘徊，但仍处于央行2%至 6%目标区间的最底端，整体价格压力尚未失控。通胀数据中还有一大积极因素，就是食品通缩进一步 ...

Core Insights - U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in August exceeded expectations, indicating strong consumer resilience [1] - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [1] - The core PCE price index, a key focus for the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.2% from July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between the 10-day and 200-day moving averages, with the latest rate at 148.0100, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, but Powell's hawkish tone has reinforced the resilience of the US dollar [1] - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, marking the slowest growth since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at its upcoming two-day meeting due to the slowdown in core inflation and domestic political uncertainty [1] - The indicator excluding fresh food and energy showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.4% [1] - Investors are focused on the policy guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda after the meeting, with a potential 25 basis point rate hike in October still being considered [1] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate broke through the resistance level of 147.50-147.60 and surpassed the 148.00 mark, indicating a bullish technical outlook [1] - The daily momentum indicators suggest that buying pressure is increasing [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 200-day moving average of 148.55-148.60, with potential challenges to the 149.00 and 149.20 levels if broken [2]

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4%, with a 7:2 vote in favor, indicating a dovish stance among some members who support a 25 basis point cut [2] - The quantitative tightening scale is reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, effective from October [2] - Inflation remains a concern, with August inflation at 3.8%, nearly double the target, and expected to reach 4% this month [3] Group 2: Japan's Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of August, still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, but marking the lowest increase in nine months [3] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates stable at 0.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] Group 3: Russia's Tax Policy - President Putin announces tax increases to address budget deficits, raising corporate tax from 20% to 25% starting January 1, 2025, and implementing a progressive personal income tax system [3] - The government plans to increase VAT from 20% to 22% by 2026 to counteract declining energy revenues and rising defense spending [3] Group 4: US Labor Market - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 231,000, marking the largest drop in nearly four years, exceeding expectations [4] - Despite the decline in initial claims, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, with the average unemployment duration extending to 24.5 weeks, the longest since April 2022 [4] Group 5: Nvidia and Intel Partnership - Nvidia announces a $5 billion investment in Intel, becoming one of its largest shareholders with over 4% ownership, aimed at joint development of PC and data center chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock rose by 22.77%, while Nvidia's increased by 3.49% [6] Group 6: Google's AI Integration - Google plans to integrate its self-developed AI model, Gemini, into the Chrome browser, enhancing user experience with features like webpage content explanation and multi-tab information integration [8] - This move is a strategic response to competition from OpenAI and other companies that have recently launched AI browser tools [8] Group 7: Microsoft's AI Data Center Investment - Microsoft announces a $7.3 billion investment in Wisconsin to build two AI data centers, deploying tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs, significantly enhancing computational power [8] - This investment is seen as a critical step for Microsoft to strengthen its AI infrastructure amid competition from OpenAI and Oracle [8] Group 8: SoftBank's Vision Fund Restructuring - SoftBank confirms a 20% workforce reduction in its Vision Fund, marking the third round of layoffs since 2022 [9] - This restructuring follows a record quarterly investment return of ¥726.8 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards AI investments, including a planned $500 billion project [9] Group 9: Hyundai's Production Strategy - Hyundai adjusts its production strategy in response to US tariffs, lowering its operating profit margin target from 7%-8% to 6%-7% due to a loss of 4.248 billion won from tariffs [10] - The company anticipates a recovery in profit margins by 2027, aiming for 7%-8% and 8%-9% by 2030 [10]

Inflation Data Summary - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% and down from the previous month's 0.0%[3] - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from a previous decline of 3.6%[3] - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 18 months and continuing to improve for four consecutive months[5] Price Dynamics - Food prices significantly dragged down the overall CPI, with food items declining by 4.3% year-on-year, compared to a 1.6% decline in the previous month[5] - Pork prices saw a substantial drop of 16.1% year-on-year, contributing to the weaker-than-expected CPI data[5] - Service items and industrial consumer goods prices remained stable, with service CPI increasing by 0.6% year-on-year and industrial consumer goods rising by 1.5%[5] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month change stabilized at 0.0%, marking the first halt in decline since November 2024[8] - Upstream prices showed notable stabilization, particularly in black metal mining and smelting, with increases of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively[8] - Downstream industrial product prices showed minimal improvement, with automotive and general machinery PPI declining slightly[8] Future Outlook - The weak August CPI reflects a significant divergence in consumption structure, primarily influenced by high base effects and supply-side factors[6] - There is potential for CPI to gradually recover post high base effects, especially if international commodity prices rebound and domestic policies align[10]

Core Insights - There are signs that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumer prices, although the transmission is slow [1] - In August, core goods prices in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the 0.2% increases in June and July [1] - Year-on-year, core goods prices increased by 1.5%, marking the fastest growth since May 2023 [1] - Automobile prices have risen again, with some metrics showing a significant increase [1] - Despite the rise in goods prices, a decline in service prices has kept overall core inflation steady at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1] - This inflation data is likely to reassure the Federal Reserve, indicating that a rate cut in September will not pose excessive risks to its price stability mission [1]

Group 1 - The August consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to proceed with interest rate cuts during its policy meeting on September 16-17, despite the inflation data [1] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July's figures [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the preference for duration in the market has increased, particularly for fixed-rate preferred stocks, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [2][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for $25 fixed-rate preferred stocks has reached a nine-month high, surpassing the demand for $1,000 floating-rate preferred stocks, with the former rising by 2.9% in the second half of the year compared to a 0.9% increase for the latter [4][8]. - The report indicates that despite the rising demand and yields, $25 preferred stocks remain cheaper than $1,000 preferred stocks, with a spread of approximately 63 basis points, which is in the 84th percentile since 2012 [8]. Group 2 - For cautious investors, the report suggests focusing on older $1,000 preferred stocks, which have lower yields but shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity, providing a yield premium of over 100 basis points compared to investment-grade bonds [14]. - The report notes that the average back-end spread for newly issued preferred stocks in 2025 is only 275 basis points, the narrowest on record, indicating a potential increase in extension risk [14][17].