ATFX：国际金价近期延续上涨节奏，连续多个交易日收高，当前交投于5180美元上方。从基本面到技术结构，行情体现出风险溢价扩张与趋势延续的叠加 效应。但随着价格逐步逼近前高压力区，市场已进入阶段性决策区域。 基本面方面，全球风险环境重新升温。特朗普提出可能通过"122条款"实施最高15%的临时全球关税，使贸易政策不确定性明显增加。同时，中东局势持续 紧张，美伊关系存在反复风险，俄乌冲突亦未完全缓和。地缘与贸易双重不确定性，使避险需求重新回流黄金市场。 总体而言，黄金当前仍维持在上升趋势线结构之中，基本面风险溢价与技术趋势相互强化。只要趋势线未被破坏，多头框架保持有效。但随着价格逼近5371 关键阻力区，波动或将加大，方向选择取决于阻力区的突破或趋势线的防守。 风险提示、免责条款、特别声明： 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生 变化，更新内容不会另行通知。 从技术结构来看，4小时图显示金价自2月初低点以来沿着一条清晰的上升趋势线运行。价格多次回踩趋势线获得支撑，低点持续抬高，形成稳定的上行结 构。 此前在495 ...

在美国最高法院驳回特朗普关税引发市场哗然之际，投资者可能忽略了一个惊人的美联储政策信号——下一次利率调整是加息也并非不可 能。 从当地时间上周五早间开始，一系列重磅信息密集袭来：GDP数据大幅不及预期、通胀读数居高不下、最高法院裁决出炉，随后特朗普又加 码全球关税。这些消息让多数投资者在新一周开局时陷入困惑。 海量数据与戏剧性事件交织，也解释了为何一位即将卸任的地方联储主席发出的尖锐警告，未能获得足够关注。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克从中间派转向鹰派，执掌该联储近9年后将于本月底卸任。他上周五的临别发言，凸显出美联储内部对进一步宽松 的强烈抵制——更不用说特朗普要求的大幅降息，以及他提名的部分理事似乎愿意支持的降息举措。 由于PCE还会纳入生产者价格指数（PPI）的分项（如机票、医疗服务、投资组合管理费），在本周五PPI数据公布后，1月核心PCE预估甚至 可能升至3.1%。 "最新数据引发担忧：核心通胀可能比美联储12月经济展望（SEP）所假设的更具粘性，"宏观咨询公司SGH的美联储观察人士蒂姆・杜伊 （Tim Duy）写道。他指出，美联储主席鲍威尔已悄然将关税引发通胀峰值的预估时间进一步后移。 "如果通胀开始 ...

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：我们正逐渐接近货币政策在通胀目标和充分就业之间取得平衡的临界点。 就核心通胀而言，情况并不如我们所期望的那么好。 ...

Inflation Data Summary - January CPI in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5% and previous value of 2.7%[2] - Core CPI remained steady at 2.5%, matching expectations but down from 2.6% previously[2] - The decline in energy inflation was a key driver for the lower CPI, with international oil prices weakening year-on-year[2] Market Reactions - The mild inflation data alleviated concerns about the Federal Reserve's liquidity tightening, providing temporary relief to capital markets[2] - Following the release of the CPI data, market expectations for interest rate cuts were pushed forward, with projections indicating potential cuts as early as June[2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw significant gains, with prices reaching around $5000 per ounce[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone, indicating positive momentum in the manufacturing sector[2] - Non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, contributing to a shift in market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policies[2] Seasonal Factors - January typically experiences seasonal inflationary pressures, but the CPI's moderation was notable given these trends[2] - The end of holiday discounts and the timing of corporate price adjustments usually contribute to inflationary increases at the start of the year[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and geopolitical factors that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with food prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.6% previously, and energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, down from a 0.3% increase[2] - Energy commodity prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month, while energy services saw a slight increase of 0.2%[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, particularly in clothing (up 0.3% month-on-month) and new car prices (up 0.1%) despite a significant drop in used car prices (down 2.0% year-on-year)[2] - Core services prices increased slightly by 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by higher transportation costs due to severe weather conditions[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the January inflation data, the market reacted with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in both US stocks and bonds, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in gold prices[2] Uncertainties and Future Outlook - The report highlights significant uncertainties in the sustainability of the January inflation data, primarily due to weather-related disruptions and the potential for core inflation to rise again[2] - The upcoming tax refund season and fiscal subsidies may stimulate consumer demand, posing risks for core goods and services inflation to remain sticky[2]

Economic Outlook - Economists are optimistic about inflation moving towards the 2% target as tariff effects and labor market pressures ease, although further confirmation is needed before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) resumes rate cuts [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, down from a 2.7% increase in December, marking the lowest rate since May [10][21] - Core inflation decreased to a 2.5% annual increase from 2.6% in December, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential stabilization in price trends [11][22] Inflation Trends - Headline CPI inflation was softer than expected in January, providing a positive surprise at the start of the year, with residual seasonality and delayed price adjustments affecting previous forecasts [2][12] - Certain food items experienced significant inflation, such as canned vegetables at 5.5%, while categories like eggs and pork chops saw deflation of -7% and -4.1% respectively [4][9] - The report indicated that tariff-induced price hikes have not fully worked through the data, suggesting that inflation pressures may still be present but are closer to resolution [4] Market Reactions - Stock futures rose slightly following the inflation report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each up about 0.1% in early trading [6] - Treasury yields fell after the report, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury decreasing to 4.09% from 4.11% [6] Federal Reserve Considerations - Softer inflation readings may provide the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to assess economic conditions before making further interest rate decisions [7] - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut at the June meeting, up from 66% prior to the report [8] - Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about inflation, with some expressing concerns that inflation could stabilize around 3% rather than returning to the 2% target [14]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, and below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 0.4%[1] - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, slightly above the expected decline of 1.5%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained flat at 0.2%, while the PPI increased from 0.2% in December to 0.4% in January[1] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Core Inflation - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to suppress January's CPI readings but boost February's figures significantly[2] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month recovery from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January, marking a six-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand[2] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.1% in December, impacting the overall CPI negatively[7] Group 3: PPI Trends and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for six consecutive months, with notable improvements in upstream prices for non-ferrous and black metals[8] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the living materials PPI saw a wider decline of 1.7%[8] - The ongoing "anti-involution" market reforms are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors, with significant increases in prices for educational and entertainment products[8]

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]

由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 责任编辑：郭明煜 由于劳动力需求走软抑制了薪资涨幅，美国第四季度劳动力成本增速意外放缓，创下四年半以来最小年 度增幅。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，衡量劳动力成本最全面指标 ——就业成本指数（ECI）上季度环比 上涨0.7%，低于第三季度的 0.8%。路透社调查经济学家此前预期为增长 0.8%。 截至 12 月的 12 个月里，劳动力成本同比上涨3.4%，为 2021 年第二季度以来最小涨幅；截至 9 月的年 度涨幅为 3.5%。 政策制定者将就业成本指数视为衡量劳动力市场松紧程度和核心通胀的较佳预测指标之一，因为该指数 已对就业结构和岗位质量变化做出调整。 劳动力市场表现疲软正在抑制薪资增长。美国政府上周公布，12 月每个失业人员对应0.87 个职位空 缺，低于 11 月的 0.89，一年前该比例约为 1.08。 尽管薪资压力有 ...

Core Insights - The Eurozone's inflation rate for January has decreased to 1.7%, aligning with economists' expectations of a drop from 2% in December [3][7] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, is reported at 2.2%, slightly down from 2.3% in December [3][7] - The latest data indicates that the core inflation metric has fallen below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target threshold of 2%, suggesting that the ECB is unlikely to implement rate cuts in the foreseeable future [3][7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The ECB is set to hold a monetary policy meeting, with market expectations indicating that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at 2% [5][7] - Economists predict that the benchmark rate will stay stable in the coming months, although several factors could influence the ECB's policy stance, including geopolitical tensions, significant euro appreciation, and inflation data exceeding expectations [3][7][8] - Lorenzo Codogno, founder and chief economist of Codogno Macro Consulting, notes that while the ECB is currently in a "good state," global uncertainties and economic vulnerabilities may lead officials to reconsider their optimistic outlook [4][8]