Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold surged by $91.82, an increase of 1.85%, closing at $5057.89, while currently trading around $5051 [1] - Spot silver experienced a daily increase of over 7%, reaching a high of $83.414 before closing at $83.341, and is now trading around $82.51 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, marking a historical high, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 0.9% and 0.47% respectively [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks is viewed as a "super dip repair," with future performance dependent on key economic data [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the economy is "quite limited," countering the view that tariffs are ultimately borne by U.S. consumers [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates [5] Group 4: Japanese Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, up 2.77% to 57926.07 points, following a significant rise of over 2000 points in the previous trading session [7] - The surge in Japanese stocks is attributed to the ruling coalition's victory in the House of Representatives elections, which is expected to lead to continued market momentum [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. has issued warnings for ships to stay clear of Iranian waters amid rising tensions in the region, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz [11] - A joint statement from eight countries condemned Israel's recent policies in the West Bank, indicating escalating geopolitical tensions [16]

来源：新浪基金 今日（2月10日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格早盘摸高0.79%，现在水 面附近震荡，场内价格现跌0.35%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二 二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 盛和资源 | 2.98% | 1200 | 有色金属 | 小金属 | 桐士 | 490亿 | 35.90亿 | | 2 | 博威合金 | 2.94% | mand | 有色金属 | 全属新材料 | 其他全属新材料 | 1801Z | 3.60亿 | | 3 | 中学实业 | 1.47% | None - 1 | 有色金属 | 工业会属 | 铝 | 33342 | 3.39亿 | | 4 | 厦门修业 | 1.10% | m | 有色金属 | 小会属 | 将 | 904亿 | 18.58亿 | | 5 | 海亮股份 | 0.98% | 100 11 11 11 | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铜 | ...

当地时间2月9日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰公开就美国关税政策、美元走势及降息前景作出多项表态。 米兰表示，美国的关税政策对经济的影响"相当有限"。他同时反驳了经济学界的普遍观点，即关税最终 将以更高物价的形式由美国民众承担，而非由出口国以压缩利润率的方式消化。米兰指出，关税与其他 政府政策调整相结合，有助于改善政府财政的长期前景，关税收入对于减少基本赤字将起到显著作用。 目前美国关税政策的合法性正处于最高法院审理进程中，存在被推翻的可能性。 当日，米兰在波士顿大学奎斯特罗姆商学院的演讲中谈及美元走势时称，美元目前的下跌幅度"对消费 者通胀的影响并不大"，只有在跌幅非常剧烈的情况下才会产生实质影响。他补充道，"我认为到目前为 止，它还没有对货币政策产生实质性的影响"。 同日，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克称，他已观察到市场对美元的信心出现动摇，就业数据的波动不 定是美联储保持政策谨慎的另一个原因。 此前米兰曾就降息政策前景表态，认为潜在通胀并非当前经济的核心问题，经济层面未出现过多强劲的 价格压力，美联储今年需要降息超过100个基点，他同时表示期待候任美联储主席凯文·沃什履职后的表 现。 另据央视新闻消息，美国国会 ...

截至2026年2月3日 09:30，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)上涨0.39%，成分股中钨高新上涨 4.98%，电投能源上涨3.71%，紫金矿业上涨3.36%，洛阳钼业上涨3.12%，中国铝业上涨2.99%。工业有 色ETF鹏华(159162)上涨2.84%，最新价报0.94元。 工业有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，中证工业有色金属主题指数选取市值较大的30 只业务涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀土金属等行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映工业有色金属主题上 市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、 北方稀土、中国铝业、兴业银锡、云铝股份、铜陵有色、江西铜业、厦门钨业、中金黄金、西部矿业， 前十大权重股合计占比55.71%。 消息面上，工业金属昨日大跌后筑底反弹，国内商品期货早盘开盘，氧化铝涨超1%。 东方证券指出，金融属性波动加剧，供需支撑价格底线。宽松叙事短期受挫，工业品跟随贵金属均有大 幅波动，但降息仍然是美联储的政策方向（而非加息），考虑近期特朗普试图通过提振地产市场来应对 支持率下降，海外地产修 ...

知情人士透露，随着美国总统唐纳德・特朗普力求为美联储挑选一位立场亲和的主席人选，同时权衡此 举可能引发的国会反对声浪，贝莱德集团的里克・里德竞选下一任美联储主席的呼声近期持续走高。 这些匿名知情人士就这场内部人事磋商表示，特朗普于周四与里德进行了会面，且会面进展十分顺利。 美国参议院银行委员会共和党籍成员汤姆・蒂利斯等关键参议员已发出警告，称继美国司法部上周就美 联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔就美联储总部翻新项目发表的相关言论对美联储发出传票后，特朗普提名的美 联储人选将受到更严格的审查。鲍威尔的任期将于今年 5 月届满，他声称这项刑事调查实则是一个借 口，目的是惩罚他未能尽快降息。 特朗普于周五被问及主席人选遴选进程时表示，他心中已有中意人选，但拒绝透露具体姓名。他 称："我认为我已经确定了 —— 人选就在我心里。" 部分知情人士称，目前美联储主席人选已形成四人角逐的局面，候选人分别是里德、美国国家经济委员 会主任凯文・哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒以及前美联储理事凯文・沃尔什。 哈塞特曾是早期的领跑者，这一态势一直持续到本周 —— 特朗普称他或许不愿让哈塞特离开当前岗 位。目前尚不清楚这番话是暗示内部磋商方向 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: Zhou Technology - **Business Focus**: Cross-border e-commerce, primarily in small to medium-sized home goods - **Revenue Breakdown**: 60% from Europe, over 30% from the US, with the remainder from other regions [doc id='3'][doc id='6'] Core Industry Insights - **Industry Position**: Chinese companies dominate the cross-border e-commerce sector due to high efficiency, low costs, and industrial cluster advantages [doc id='6'] - **Market Dynamics**: The cross-border e-commerce industry is expected to benefit from regulatory normalization and anti-tax avoidance policies, which may optimize the competitive landscape [doc id='2'][doc id='4'] Financial Performance - **2025 Q3 Results**: Revenue increased by 6%, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit grew by 11% [doc id='2'][doc id='7'] - **Regional Performance**: European revenue grew by over 10%, while North American growth slowed to 2% due to tariffs [doc id='7'] Growth Potential - **Future Growth Drivers**: - Positioning as an "online IKEA" with significant category expansion potential - Anticipated operational turnaround in Q4 2025 due to improved product launches and increased capacity in the US and Southeast Asia [doc id='4'][doc id='11] - **Incentive Mechanism**: New equity incentive plan set revenue and profit targets for 2026 and 2027, with a growth target of over 25% for 2025 [doc id='12'] Brand and Logistics Strengths - **Brand Performance**: Strong brand presence in Europe, ranking high on Amazon platforms, with notable positions in France and Italy [doc id='8'][doc id='9'] - **Logistics Efficiency**: Established a robust logistics system in Europe with a self-shipping ratio of 78%, which reduces costs and enhances customer satisfaction [doc id='9][doc id='10'] Market Challenges - **US Market Dynamics**: The US market lags behind Europe in cross-border e-commerce, with a wholesale ratio of only 30% as of June 2025 [doc id='10'] - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have affected growth, but increasing procurement from Southeast Asia is expected to mitigate these effects [doc id='7'] Profitability Outlook - **Current Profit Margins**: Currently at historical lows, but expected to improve as the industry landscape stabilizes and tax conditions remain favorable [doc id='13'] - **Interest Rate Sensitivity**: Demand for durable goods in the US is sensitive to interest rate changes, with anticipated rate cuts in 2026 likely to boost demand [doc id='14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Richmond President Thomas Barkin emphasizes the need for a "fine-tuning" strategy in future monetary policy due to uncertainties surrounding inflation and employment targets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Current policy interest rates are at a neutral range, but decisions will heavily rely on subsequent economic data without pre-setting a direction [1] - Despite a significant decline in the U.S. inflation rate from previous highs, it remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Risks - The unemployment rate remains low, but policymakers are cautious about further deterioration in the labor market [1] - Barkin warns of the "bear market" risk, which involves suppressing inflation while avoiding a deep economic contraction [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - In assessing the economic performance for 2025, Barkin acknowledges overall resilience but highlights structural concerns, such as demand and job growth being overly concentrated in a few industries, with a noticeable decline in market sentiment [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, Barkin expresses cautious optimism, suggesting that multiple uncertainties that troubled the market last year are expected to gradually dissipate, potentially boosting consumer and business confidence [1] - He mentions that tax reforms, regulatory easing, and potential interest rate cuts could support economic growth this year [1]

（本文作者阮加，北京交通大学中国金融研究中心主任） 刚刚结束的中央经济工作会议指出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合 理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币 政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。" 结合两年政策部署来看，2024年中央经济工作会议强调"保持就业、物价总体稳定"；2025年会议明确提 出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，这也是今年会议的新提法。据国家 统计局数据显示，2025年1—11月平均，全国居民消费价格与上年同期持平。既契合上年政策目标，也 为朝着新目标实现进一步上升预留了空间。 货币政策的主要任务是总需求管理，维持合理的物价则是达成这一任务的重要基础。通货膨胀率如同经 济体温，不能太高或太低。 适度通货膨胀率是经济活力的基础，也是经济增长、充分就业的基础。发达国家多将2%作为目标通胀 率，高增长发展中国家的通货膨胀率多高于3%。1992-2010年中国高增长时期年均通货膨胀率约为 5.2%，扣除物价因素后，同期实际GDP年均增长率约为10.32% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected shift in the nomination race for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the frontrunner, challenging the previously favored candidate, Kevin Hassett. This change reflects the increasing difficulty President Trump faces in exerting influence over the Federal Reserve as he prepares for the upcoming midterm elections [3][5]. Group 1: Nomination Dynamics - Kevin Walsh's nomination probability has risen to 47%, up from 39% on Sunday and just 11% on December 3, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 41% from 51% [4]. - The decline in Hassett's candidacy is attributed to opposition from Trump's allies, who are concerned about Hassett's close ties to Trump [4][5]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has publicly supported Walsh, indicating that Hassett may align too closely with Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Trump's Challenges - President Trump is under pressure to reshape the Federal Reserve due to the challenging landscape for the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections [7]. - Trump has expressed uncertainty about the timing of his economic policies' effectiveness, which he believes are crucial for maintaining control of the House of Representatives [7]. - Despite his claims of job creation and stock market boosts from his policies, Trump has wavered on addressing inflation, sometimes dismissing it as a hoax while blaming former President Biden [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve recently confirmed the reappointment of all regional bank presidents for five-year terms, a routine process that has gained attention due to Trump's pressure for rate cuts [9]. - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a cautious outlook expected at least through the first quarter of the following year [9].

今日周三(12月10日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14185一线上方，今日开盘于13761元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14348元/千克，上涨5.25%，最高触及14388元/千克，最低下探13735元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普将于本周对美联储主席候选人进行最后一轮面试，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特将与其余三位候选人共同参与角逐。 据三名政府高级官员透露，特朗普与财政部长斯科特·贝森特已安排在周三面试前美联储理事凯文·沃 什。 尽管部分华尔街投资者担忧哈塞特与总统关系过密，可能导致过于激进的降息政策，但其目前仍被视为 接替鲍威尔的最可能人选，预计明年五月有望上任。然而，继续开展额外面试的安排显示，最终人选尚 未完全确定。有官员提出了哈塞特可能缩短任期的方案。 此前，贝森特已向白宫提交了一份四人候选名单，除哈塞特与沃什外，其余两位将从"其他最终候选 人"中选出，其中包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼以及贝莱德高管里克·里德 尔。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银本周预期的做多点位在13250 ...