沃勒认为，这种变化既与人工智能技术发展相关，也存在多方面复杂因素。他强调企业行为模式正在发生根本性转变，不再维持原先的静态用人策略。基于 对就业市场风险的判断，沃勒敦促美联储在十二月的政策会议上考虑再次降息二十五个基点。 沃勒承认当前政策制定者之间存在异常严重的意见分歧，但他认为这种不同观点的碰撞在组织内部具有积极意义。不过他也提醒，若政策投票结果过于接 近，可能削弱投资者对利率走势的预期能力。他特别指出，若出现七比五的投票结果，随后会议上人员变动就可能导致政策轨迹完全改变，这种情况将影响 市场对政策路径的信心。 IF FEREAT ir 7 RU - - 8 a r t III Is ELE ! III II III 日本 时刻客 | 版 H 車車車車車 HIB (88) 3 1 w : 2 : 2 : 12 当前美联储的政策讨论面临特殊环境，由于政府停摆导致经济统计数据发布延迟。然而沃勒认为这种困难被过分夸大，他强调美联储并未陷入信息真空，仍 然可以通过大量私人部门和部分公共部门数据获取对美国经济运行状况的有效判断。这些数据来源包括薪资处理机构、各州失业救济申请数据以及多家权威 机构的调查研究。 在通胀评 ...

Financial Data Overview - In October, new social financing (社融) amounted to CNY 815 billion, significantly lower than the expected CNY 1.53 trillion[2] - New RMB loans totaled CNY 220 billion, falling short of the anticipated CNY 460 billion[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 8.0%[2] Economic Trends - The growth rate of social financing declined to 8.5%, indicating overall insufficient financing demand[5] - Government bond issuance decreased significantly, contributing to a year-on-year reduction of CNY 5.97 trillion in social financing[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by CNY 770 billion year-on-year, reflecting a shift of funds towards financial markets[5] Credit Market Insights - Total new credit under a broad definition was CNY 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 280 billion[7] - The structure of corporate loans worsened, with short-term loans showing a notable decline[11] - Resident loans decreased by CNY 360 billion, indicating weak consumer and housing demand[13] Future Outlook - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in Q4 is low due to ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins[6] - Focus will shift towards fiscal policy to stimulate demand, with expectations for increased government spending[6] - Continued monitoring of fiscal expenditure pace is essential to support economic recovery[6]

Group 1 - International gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on October 8, reaching a high of $4,081, but have since fluctuated around this level, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar assets as multiple central banks sell dollars and buy gold [4][6][18] - The U.S. is highly sensitive to gold prices, with a strong stance against allowing prices to rise to $5,000, reflecting a strategy to maintain the dollar's position [6][17] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, including the fifth cut on October 29, have been reactive rather than proactive, influenced by economic data and external pressures, highlighting the current economic dilemma faced by the U.S. [3][12][14] Group 2 - The trade war has seen a noticeable slowdown since August 12, with both sides pausing certain tariff measures and seeking negotiation space, which is closely tied to monetary policy adjustments [9][11][18] - The recent easing of trade tensions has contributed to a decline in inflation, with September's CPI dropping from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, and year-on-year inflation at 3%, below the expected 3.1% [11][21] - The interplay between interest rate cuts, trade war dynamics, and gold price movements reflects a delicate balancing act for the U.S. economy, as each adjustment impacts overall economic stability and the international standing of the dollar [17][19][21]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have proven to be more beneficial than the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, highlighting the challenges of tariff collection and the burden of national debt interest payments [1][12][29] - Tariff revenues for the fiscal year 2025 reached $195 billion, nearly tripling from the previous year, but the collection process is complicated and often ineffective due to various loopholes and corruption risks [3][5][10] - The interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2024, representing 3.93% of GDP, marking the highest level since 1998, while the recent interest rate cuts could save approximately $95 billion annually [13][15][20] Group 2 - The aging population in the U.S. poses significant economic challenges, with over 56 million people aged 65 and older by 2024, which could lead to labor shortages and increased reliance on imports [25][27] - The current economic strategy of lowering interest rates may provide short-term relief but risks leading to long-term issues similar to those faced by Japan, such as low consumer spending and economic stagnation [22][29] - The combination of tariffs and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration could exacerbate inflation and economic inefficiencies, necessitating a reevaluation of fiscal policies to address these deep-rooted issues [24][29]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the market had already priced in this news, leading to limited positive effects post-announcement [1] - The Fed's indication of pausing further rate cuts has been interpreted as a short-lived easing cycle, prompting a withdrawal of funds and resulting in a rapid market decline [1][3] - The overall market movement aligns with expectations, with a predicted rise to the 116,000-119,000 range, but a false breakout at 116,000 confirmed the end of the rebound, leading to a bearish stance near 117,000 [1] Group 2 - The primary factor for the significant decline is not the rate cut itself, but the change in future policy direction, indicating a shortened or halted path for further rate cuts, which limits liquidity for risk assets [3] - A three-day consecutive decline on the daily chart confirms a weak market structure, with a false breakout near 116,000 and a continuation of the bottoming phase [3] - The market remains in a volatile structure following previous declines, with a focus on short positions during rebounds, while key resistance is identified around 112,000 [3]

Group 1 - The price of gold reached a historical high on September 22, with various gold shops pricing gold jewelry at 1090 yuan per gram, while the lowest price was 1045 yuan per gram [1][5] - The investment gold bar price ranged from 852 to 869 yuan per gram, and silver was priced at 9.98 yuan per gram [1][6] - The spot gold market showed strong performance, closing up by 40.26 dollars, a rise of 1.1%, ending at 3684.40 dollars per ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator [1][2] - A series of important economic data is expected this week, including the September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final report of the second quarter GDP [1][2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, marking the strongest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Group 3 - Current domestic gold prices are at 840 yuan per gram, while international gold prices are at 3717 dollars per ounce [3] - The international prices for platinum, palladium, and silver are 1429 dollars per ounce, 1181 dollars per ounce, and 43.63 dollars per ounce, respectively [3] Group 4 - Various gold shops in Hong Kong reported gold prices at 40880 HKD per tael, with all major brands showing an increase [8] Group 5 - The gold recycling price today is 827 yuan per gram, with platinum at 303 yuan per gram, palladium at 249 yuan per gram, and silver at 9.13 yuan per gram [7]

Core Insights - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, marking a significant economic concern for the country [1] - The implications of this debt level can be understood through three dimensions: historical comparison, growth rate, and future trends [3] Dimension 1: Historical Comparison - The debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded post-World War II historical peaks, indicating a severe fiscal situation [3] Dimension 2: Growth Rate - Since the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. federal debt has increased by over $14 trillion, raising concerns about the pace of debt expansion [3] Dimension 3: Future Trends - Projections by the Congressional Budget Office suggest that by 2050, the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach an alarming 160% [3] Economic Impacts of High Debt - High debt levels will significantly increase government interest payment burdens and limit public spending [6] - The sustainability of U.S. government debt is increasingly questioned, leading to a loss of the highest sovereign credit rating from major credit rating agencies [6] - A fundamental loss of confidence in U.S. debt could jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [6] Tariff Policy and Debt - Current tariff rates are expected to generate approximately $2.2 trillion in revenue over the next decade, which would only cover about half of the fiscal deficit created by the "Build Back Better" plan [9] - Tariff policies may also lead to higher inflation, hinder economic growth, and disrupt global supply chains [9] Interest Rate Policy Challenges - The current interest expenditure has surpassed defense spending, highlighting the challenges of managing high debt levels [10] - Lowering interest rates could alleviate immediate interest burdens but may not resolve structural fiscal deficits [10] - Prematurely lowering rates before inflation returns to target could damage policy credibility and increase future financing costs [10]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, with a focus on individuals who align with his economic policies and support for interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Selection - Trump has initiated interviews for the Federal Reserve Board vacancy and has narrowed the potential candidates to four [4]. - Among the candidates mentioned are former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, with speculation around current Fed governor Christopher J. Waller [4]. - The final selection will likely depend on Trump's strategic considerations regarding the economic power structure [5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The push for interest rate cuts is driven by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, particularly in light of a $36 trillion federal debt and high-interest rates [5]. - A 1% reduction in the benchmark interest rate could save the government hundreds of billions in refinancing costs, emphasizing the importance of selecting a candidate who will adhere to Trump's agenda for rate cuts [5].

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce new appointments for the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could reshape his economic policy agenda for the remainder of his term [1] - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for Trump to appoint a candidate more aligned with his preference for interest rate cuts [2] - The recent firing of Labor Statistics Bureau Chief Erika McEntarfer follows weak non-farm payroll data, raising questions about the integrity of economic data [4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Appointments - Trump plans to select a new Federal Reserve Board member and announce a new Labor Statistics Bureau Chief within a few days [1] - The vacancy left by Kugler allows Trump to appoint a board member who aligns with his interest rate policies, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [2] - The next Fed Chair's appointment will be strategic, as it may occur before Powell's term ends in May 2026, allowing Trump to position his preferred successor [2] Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau Changes - The dismissal of McEntarfer has drawn criticism, particularly as she was confirmed with bipartisan support [4][5] - Trump accused McEntarfer of manipulating key economic data without providing evidence, which has raised concerns about the reliability of labor statistics [4] - Recent non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and substantial downward revisions for previous months [4]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9421, with an opening at 9300 and a current price of 9435, reflecting a 0.16% increase. The highest price reached was 9447, while the lowest was 9290, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that the resistance for silver is at 9447 and the range of 9451 to 9481, while support is near 9300. A drop below 9300 could lead to further declines towards 9100, whereas maintaining above 9300 would likely prevent significant downward movement [5] Group 2 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters comes just under a week before the two-day interest rate meeting, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50%. Trump has reiterated his desire for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [3] - Despite previous threats to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, Trump stated that he sees no need to fire him, which is a surprising shift given their historically contentious relationship [3][4] - Analysts believe Trump's decision to avoid confrontation may be influenced by the current complex political and economic environment, as dismissing Powell could lead to market turmoil and impact Trump's political image [4]