麦迪逊投资公司固定收益主管迈克·桑德斯在报告中指出，美国国债收益率曲线的持续陡峭化揭示了货 币政策行动影响的一个关键点："政策行动能显著影响收益率曲线短端，但包括通胀高于目标和庞大财 政赤字在内的长期结构性问题，将持续对长端构成压力。" 他表示，美联储主席鲍威尔对劳动力市场疲软的承认迅速提振债券买盘，扭转了美债最初的抛售势头并 推高收益率曲线。麦迪逊预计美联储后续宽松步伐将放缓，预测其将按兵不动直至2026年第二季度。 麦迪逊投资公司固定收益主管迈克·桑德斯在报告中指出，美国国债收益率曲线的持续陡峭化揭示了货 币政策行动影响的一个关键点："政策行动能显著影响收益率曲线短端，但包括通胀高于目标和庞大财 政赤字在内的长期结构性问题，将持续对长端构成压力。" 他表示，美联储主席鲍威尔对劳动力市场疲软的承认迅速提振债券买盘，扭转了美债最初的抛售势头并 推高收益率曲线。麦迪逊预计美联储后续宽松步伐将放缓，预测其将按兵不动直至2026年第二季度。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is facing dual challenges of a weakening job market and inflation above target levels, as reiterated by Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson [1] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that the severity of the inflation issue outweighs that of employment, advocating for caution regarding further rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Jefferson noted high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook but expects it to ease as White House policies are finalized [1] - He stated that even during a government shutdown, the Fed has sufficient data to perform its duties effectively [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed recently voted to lower the benchmark interest rate for the first time in 2025, with expectations for two more cuts this year to support the job market while maintaining downward pressure on inflation [1] - Logan highlighted that the gap in achieving inflation targets is greater than that for maximum employment, suggesting a cautious approach to future rate cuts [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Logan focuses on the unemployment rate rather than employment numbers, noting that the unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with September data unavailable due to the government shutdown [2] - Despite a significant slowdown in job growth raising concerns about the labor market, some officials remain primarily focused on the persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]

Core Insights - Despite rising unemployment, the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting due to persistent inflation above target levels [1] Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate in the UK has reached its highest level in nearly four years at 4.6% [1] - Wage growth is also slowing down, indicating potential issues within the labor market [1] - The high business costs may lead to increased unemployment throughout the year [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of England's policymakers are expected to remain unaffected by the current labor market challenges [1] - The ongoing high inflation is a significant factor preventing any immediate interest rate cuts [1]