中国海关总署10月13日公布的9月贸易统计（美元计价）数据显示，进口同比增长7.4%，达2381亿美 元。有分析认为受美国对等关税等影响，各国增加了对华出口，外国产品的流入将形成新的通货紧缩压 力。 中国的进口连续4个月正增长。9月增幅创2024年4月以来的高点。按主要国家和地区来看，来自英国的 进口增长26%、巴西增长24%、印度增长23%、日本增长21%，均实现两位数增长。来自韩国和欧盟的 进口也在增长。 13日发布的贸易统计初值并未公布各个国家和地区的进口产品的详细情况。从进口产品整体来看，铁矿 石增长17%，集成电路增长14%。化妆品类和大豆也超过上年同月。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京 中国的进口连续4个月正增长。9月增幅创2024年4月以来的高点。有分析认为受美国对等关税等影响， 各国增加了对华出口。外国产品流入形成新的通缩压力…… 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 上海港口（reuters） ...

Investment Rating - The report revises the GDP forecast for 2025 upward to 4.5% from 4.0% due to stronger-than-expected growth in Q1 and solid capital expenditure momentum [1][2][3] Core Insights - The growth recovery is expected to soften from Q2 2025 onwards due to tariff impacts and reactive policy measures, despite initial positive momentum [2][4] - The report highlights a higher contribution from capital formation to GDP, driven by emerging industries and AI adoption [3][5] - The policy framework is aimed at providing a floor to growth rather than aggressive stimulus, with limited actions anticipated in the near term [11][12] Summary by Sections GDP Forecast - The revised GDP forecast for 2025 is 4.5%, reflecting a stronger-than-expected Q1 performance and solid capital expenditure [1][2] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.6% YoY for 2025, below consensus expectations [2][3] Economic Drivers - Key drivers for the GDP revision include robust Q1 growth tracking at 5.4% YoY and higher capital expenditure growth supported by emerging sectors [3][4] - The report notes that the economy has become less sensitive to tariffs due to lower direct trade exposure to the US and supply chain adjustments [4][5] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report indicates a reactive policy response rather than proactive stimulus, with a wait-and-see approach on potential new initiatives [11][12] - The housing market is not expected to see a sustained recovery, with recent rebounds attributed to pent-up demand rather than broader economic strength [12][13] Currency and Inflation Outlook - The RMB forecast has been revised, expecting USDCNY to reach 7.35 by mid-2025, reflecting a focus on currency stability [14][16] - The GDP deflator is forecasted at -0.9% YoY for 2025, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures despite stronger domestic demand [13][14]