Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures down 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.94% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.46%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.20%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.83% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 2.72% to $65.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.60% to $69.24 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise due to strong corporate earnings and an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - UBS warns of seasonal risks in September, historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, despite strong performance in August driven by EPS revisions [5] - UBS also forecasts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of rate cuts totaling 100 basis points starting in September due to stable inflation and a weakening labor market [6] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its Q3 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6% due to a larger-than-expected trade deficit [6] Company News - Tesla has received only over 600 orders since launching in India, significantly below expectations, attributed to high tariffs and infrastructure challenges [9] - Starbucks reports a significant increase in sales due to the return of its seasonal pumpkin spice products, marking a turnaround in its sales performance [10] - Kraft Heinz announced plans to split into two publicly traded companies to boost growth, focusing on condiments and grocery products [10] - NIO reported a total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan for Q2, a 9% year-over-year increase, with vehicle deliveries reaching a record high [11]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has revised Japan's GDP forecast for 2025 down to 0.7% from a previous estimate of 1.1%, while increasing the forecast for 2026 to 0.4% from 0.2% [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Forecasts** - Japan's GDP forecast for 2025 is now 0.7%, reduced from 1.1% [1] - The forecast for 2026 has been increased to 0.4%, up from 0.2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report revises the GDP forecast for 2025 upward to 4.5% from 4.0% due to stronger-than-expected growth in Q1 and solid capital expenditure momentum [1][2][3] Core Insights - The growth recovery is expected to soften from Q2 2025 onwards due to tariff impacts and reactive policy measures, despite initial positive momentum [2][4] - The report highlights a higher contribution from capital formation to GDP, driven by emerging industries and AI adoption [3][5] - The policy framework is aimed at providing a floor to growth rather than aggressive stimulus, with limited actions anticipated in the near term [11][12] Summary by Sections GDP Forecast - The revised GDP forecast for 2025 is 4.5%, reflecting a stronger-than-expected Q1 performance and solid capital expenditure [1][2] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.6% YoY for 2025, below consensus expectations [2][3] Economic Drivers - Key drivers for the GDP revision include robust Q1 growth tracking at 5.4% YoY and higher capital expenditure growth supported by emerging sectors [3][4] - The report notes that the economy has become less sensitive to tariffs due to lower direct trade exposure to the US and supply chain adjustments [4][5] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report indicates a reactive policy response rather than proactive stimulus, with a wait-and-see approach on potential new initiatives [11][12] - The housing market is not expected to see a sustained recovery, with recent rebounds attributed to pent-up demand rather than broader economic strength [12][13] Currency and Inflation Outlook - The RMB forecast has been revised, expecting USDCNY to reach 7.35 by mid-2025, reflecting a focus on currency stability [14][16] - The GDP deflator is forecasted at -0.9% YoY for 2025, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures despite stronger domestic demand [13][14]