造纸行业复苏
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造纸行业周报:包装纸提价+库存收缩,造纸板块复苏动能强化-20251117
Datong Securities· 2025-11-17 10:38
Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase and inventory reduction are strengthening the recovery momentum in the paper sector [1] - The price increase is driven by high waste paper costs and changes in import policies for recycled pulp, leading to a solid pricing logic in the industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a clear improvement in fundamentals, with a strong correlation between packaging paper price increases and pulp inventory reduction [3] Summary by Sections Industry News - Several major paper companies, including Shanying Paper and Dongguan Jiu Long Paper, have announced maintenance shutdowns, affecting various paper types and potentially impacting domestic raw paper supply and prices [4] - The price increase trend continues, with Jiu Long and Shanying raising prices by 50 CNY/ton for various paper types, indicating a nationwide ripple effect [5] Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory decreased by 53,000 tons, reflecting improved demand [6] - The average price of domestic bleached kraft pulp rose by 11.25 CNY/ton, while the average price of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 18.75 CNY/ton [11] Investment Strategy - The paper sector is at a critical stage benefiting from "price increase dividends and inventory improvement," focusing on the dual main lines of "price increase elasticity and structural optimization" [22] - Short-term tracking of packaging paper price increases and the impact of paper company shutdowns is recommended, with potential for increased investment in leading paper companies if supply contraction exceeds expectations [22]