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——债券周报20260125:悲观预期修正,但做多仍待催化-20260125
Huachuang Securities· 2026-01-25 13:49
Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a correction of previous pessimistic expectations, with a notable recovery in the long-end segment, driven by a stabilization of risk appetite and a reduction in market concerns regarding supply and funding [1][10][11] - The central bank's positive stance and stable funding conditions have contributed to a relatively calm market, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF this week, indicating a potential decrease in the likelihood of short-term reserve requirement cuts [1][15][20] - The issuance pace of local government bonds has been slower than expected, alleviating supply pressure, with local bonds accounting for 51% of the monthly plan in the first three weeks of January [2][16][20] Group 2 - The bond market strategy emphasizes the need to pay attention to the rhythm and relative pricing of configurations, as the short-term drivers for a significant decline in yields remain unclear, leading to a likely maintenance of a volatile market [3][26][28] - The 10-year government bond is expected to consolidate within the 1.8%-1.9% range, while the 30-10 year yield spread is projected to be between 30-50 basis points, with caution advised against excessive entry below 40 basis points [3][30][33] - There is a focus on rotation opportunities among different bond types, with specific attention to short-term government bonds and long-term local bonds, which are expected to yield over 2.4% in comprehensive returns when held for three months [4][36][39]