Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced the resumption of government bond trading operations with a net injection of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - Dongzheng Futures analysis suggests that the net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds is generally positive for the bond market, despite some investors taking profits before and after the announcement [1] - The market anticipates a gradual increase in the scale of bond purchases by the central bank, with a preference for long-term bonds over short-term ones, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - Related products include the benchmark government bond ETF (511100), which focuses on medium to long-term interest rate bonds with low fees [2] - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) targets medium to short-term credit bonds, also with low fees and high credit quality [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF (551550) emphasizes medium to short-term sci-tech innovation bonds, maintaining low fees and high credit quality [2]

Group 1: China Petroleum - In Q3 2025, the company reported a 14% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, demonstrating resilience in the oil and gas sector [4][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 21,693 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, with a net profit of 1,263 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [4][5] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are budgeted at 262.2 billion yuan, focusing on exploration and development in key basins and upgrading refining and chemical projects [6][7] Group 2: Shanghai Film - The company reported a revenue of 361 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.6%, with a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 123.51% year-on-year [10][11] - The success of the film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" significantly contributed to the revenue growth, with a box office exceeding 1.7 billion yuan [11][13] - The company is actively developing its IP business, with multiple upcoming projects expected to enhance future growth [11][13] Group 3: Foton Motor - Foton Motor's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 45.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 157.5% year-on-year [15][16] - The company achieved a market share of 12.6% in heavy truck wholesale, the highest in 10 years, with significant growth in both domestic and export sales [16][17] - The annualized ROE improved to the highest level since 2013, reflecting enhanced profitability and cash flow quality [18][19] Group 4: Bojun Technology - Bojun Technology reported a revenue of 4.075 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, with a net profit of 627 million yuan, up 70.47% year-on-year [20][21] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established multiple subsidiaries across key regions, enhancing its operational efficiency [22][23] - The human-robot business is steadily advancing, with ongoing collaborations in intelligent robotics [22][23] Group 5: Dingyang Technology - Dingyang Technology achieved a revenue of 431 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.67%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 21.49% year-on-year [24][25] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant growth in high-end product sales [25][26] - The overall gross margin remains high at 61.13%, reflecting effective cost management and product pricing strategies [26] Group 6: KEBODA - KEBODA reported a revenue of approximately 17.33 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.76%, with a net profit of about 2.18 billion yuan [27][28] - The company is expanding its global presence, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic markets [28][29] - KEBODA's acquisition of intelligent technology is expected to enhance its product offerings and market competitiveness [29][30] Group 7: Desay SV - Desay SV reported a revenue of approximately 76.92 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, with a net profit of about 5.65 billion yuan [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its product structure and optimizing customer relationships to mitigate short-term performance pressures [32][33] - Desay SV is actively exploring new business areas, including smart transportation and autonomous delivery [33][34] Group 8: Aishide - Aishide reported a revenue of 393.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31.47%, with a net profit of 33.7 million yuan [35][36] - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment to focus on high-margin core businesses, showing signs of operational improvement [36][37] - Aishide is establishing an industry fund to invest in emerging technologies, enhancing its growth potential [38][39]

Report Overview - Report date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Title: How Many Institutions Are Optimistic about the Current Bond Market Rally? Bond Research Weekly Report - Core analysts: Yan Ziqi, Guo Xiyuan 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From October 28 to November 3, the sentiment of bond market sellers significantly rebounded, and the sentiment of buyers turned from negative to positive. Meanwhile, the divergence of sellers' views increased. After events such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and China-US consultations, and with the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading, both buyers and sellers became optimistic about the bond market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Significantly Increased from October 28 to November 3 - The unweighted sentiment index from October 28 to November 3 was 0.54, up 0.36 from October 21 - 27, with an increased proportion of bullish views. Among 24 institutions, 1 was bullish, 12 were moderately bullish, 10 were neutral, and 1 was moderately bearish [13]. - 4% of institutions were bullish, citing factors such as over - consumption due to subsidies, a rapid decline in bank liability costs, and loose liquidity, and predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield would return to around 1.65% this year [5][13]. - 50% of institutions were moderately bullish, believing that the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, economic pressure, and the deepening asset shortage, along with potential factors like the new rules on public fund sales fees, might be digested in advance by the market [5][13]. - 42% of institutions were neutral, stating that the tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, a strong equity market suppressing the bond market, and weak financing demand and domestic demand limiting the upside of interest rates, creating a "ceiling - floor" pattern [5][13]. - 4% of institutions were moderately bearish, arguing that inflation might rise due to factors like anti - involution and improved corporate profits, long - term yields might follow inflation expectations, the probability of future interest rate cuts was low, and restarting treasury bond trading would not change the upward trend of bond yields [5][13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Turned from Negative to Positive from October 28 to November 3 - The unweighted sentiment index from October 28 to November 3 was 0.33, up from the previous period. Among 24 institutions, 10 were moderately bullish, 12 were neutral, and 2 were moderately bearish [14]. - 42% of institutions were moderately bullish, due to weak economic data, an asset shortage, positive institutional behavior, and strong allocation demand [6][14]. - 50% of institutions were neutral, suggesting that the central bank might have a target range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield, and the market lacked a clear single driver for a trend - breaking movement, likely to remain in a "narrow - range fluctuation" state [6][14]. - 8% of institutions were moderately bearish, noting that the decrease in positions showed a "price - rising and position - decreasing" pattern, the market's upward momentum was weakening, and the bond market was still in a headwind, with yields likely to rise [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company bond ETF (511030) shows a positive performance with a 1.81% increase over the past year and a recent price of 106.11 yuan as of July 31, 2025 [3][5]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 31, 2025, the company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.58% over the past five years [5]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 9 months and a maximum gain of 3.80% [5]. - The annual profit percentage stands at 83.33%, with a monthly profit probability of 79.85% and a historical three-year profit probability of 100% [5]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The company bond ETF experienced a turnover rate of 9.41% with a trading volume of 2.1 billion yuan on July 31, 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past month was 2.044 billion yuan [3]. - The latest fund inflow for the ETF was 53.0572 million yuan, accumulating this amount over the last five trading days [3]. Group 3: Fund Size and Shares - The current size of the company bond ETF reached 22.332 billion yuan, marking a new high for the past year [3]. - The latest number of shares for the ETF is 210 million, which is the highest in the last three months [3]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy and Fees - The tracking error for the company bond ETF this year is 0.013% [6]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5].

Core Viewpoint - After the "May Day" holiday, analysts believe that the bond market will continue to experience pressure from the fundamentals, with monetary policy easing being a likely direction, indicating that the logic for bullish positions in the bond market remains unchanged, and institutions can continue to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of April 30, the interbank bond market showed slight fluctuations in yield rates, with the 3-month government bond yield down 2 basis points to 1.47%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.45%, and the 10-year yield stable around 1.62% [2] - In April, the bond market exhibited a pattern of "initial decline followed by fluctuations," with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 18.9 basis points to 1.62% [2] - The first trading day after the "May Day" holiday saw the yield rates continue to show narrow fluctuations, with the 3-month yield rising 1 basis point to 1.48%, the 2-year yield stable at 1.45%, and the 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 1.63% [2] Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the bond market in May, noting that historically, bond prices tend to decline in May compared to April, with the 10-year government bond yield typically decreasing by around 10 basis points [3] - Key factors to watch for a potential breakout in the market include external shocks such as unexpected monetary easing and the verification of existing bullish or bearish factors related to the fundamentals [4] - The liquidity situation is expected to support a bullish performance in the bond market, with tax payment pressures likely easing in May compared to April [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current market conditions suggest that short-term instruments, particularly those with a maturity of 3 years or less, are more favorable for investment strategies in May [6] - There is an accumulation of bullish momentum in the bond market, with mid-term positive support from the fundamentals, and long-term bonds may follow suit for a rebound [6] - In the context of ongoing monetary easing expectations, the probability of declining yields and spreads in credit bonds is also considered high, especially given the weak supply of credit bonds in May [6]