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“十五五”建议稿:哪些新热度?
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-28 13:19
Group 1: Economic Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "strategic initiative" and "major breakthroughs" in five areas: industry, consumption, technology, finance, and openness[1] - The plan prioritizes traditional industries alongside emerging and future industries, indicating a need to solidify the foundation of traditional manufacturing[1][2] - A significant goal is to increase the resident consumption rate, which currently lags behind major global economies, with a potential increase of 14 percentage points by 2035[2] Group 2: Consumption and Financial Development - The plan aims for an average annual consumption growth rate of over 7% in the next decade, leveraging the gap in consumption rates compared to developed economies[2] - Measures to stimulate consumer willingness include removing unreasonable restrictions on car and housing purchases and optimizing consumption scenarios[3] - The "Financial Power" strategy is highlighted, aiming to enhance pricing power and wealth effects, which could boost consumer confidence and spending[3] Group 3: International Engagement and Risks - The plan calls for a significant elevation in "high-level openness," shifting from basic implementation to proactive expansion, which is crucial for navigating complex international environments[5] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected domestic economic changes, and fluctuations in exports[5]