重污染天气预警限产
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突发!关税再起!双焦跌势创新低!下周钢价怎么走?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, influenced by various factors including inventory levels, demand fluctuations, and external economic conditions [1][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - On November 21, the domestic steel market saw a slight decline, with major futures contracts primarily trending downwards, except for a minor increase in rebar prices [1][5]. - The average prices for various steel products showed slight increases, with rebar at 3239 CNY/ton, up by 15 CNY, and wire rod at 3603 CNY/ton, up by 12 CNY [6][8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - India has initiated a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on low ash metallurgical coke from several countries, including China, which is expected to negatively impact steel prices [2]. - Heavy pollution alerts in Shandong and Huai Bei have led to emergency measures that may tighten supply in the steel industry, potentially supporting steel prices in the short term [3]. - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is low, which may strengthen the dollar and suppress commodity prices, including steel [4]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The iron ore market is under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices expected to remain weak in the coming week [11]. - The coke market is stable, but demand is weak due to reduced steel production, leading to limited cost support for steel prices [11]. - Scrap steel prices are declining due to reduced procurement by steel mills and increased inventory among traders, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the steel market remains cautious, with expectations of price fluctuations between weak and strong trends in the coming week, with a potential range of 10-30 CNY [12].