钢铁周报 20260301 两会临近，供给约束预期增强 glmszqdatemark | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 000932.SZ | 华菱钢铁 | 6.71 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 推荐 | | 600019.SH | 宝钢股份 | 7.20 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600282.SH | 南钢股份 | 5.91 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 推荐 | | 301160.SZ | 翔楼新材 | 68.56 | 2.01 | 2.70 | 3.66 | 34 | ...

碳足迹，是指由个人、组织、事件或产品直接和间接造成的温室气体排放总量，通常以二氧化碳当量表 示，可分为国家碳足迹、城市碳足迹、组织碳足迹、企业碳足迹、家庭碳足迹、产品碳足迹以及个人碳 足迹。 在各类碳足迹中，产品碳足迹是应用最广的概念。产品碳足迹指的是产品的整个生命周期，包括从原材 料的生产、运输、分销、使用到废弃等流程所产生的碳排放量总和，是衡量生产企业和产品绿色低碳水 平的重要指标。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 加快提升工业产品碳足迹管理水平，建立健全碳足迹管理体系，是促进工业绿色低碳转型的重要途径。 近日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局4部门联合发布了第三批73项工 业产品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐清单，涵盖石化、钢铁、有色、建材等13个重点行业。 专家认为，清单聚焦市场需求迫切、减排贡献突出、产业链关联性强、供应链带动作用明显，以及国际 贸易量大的产品领域，将为支撑完善我国产品碳足迹管理体系、助力实现"双碳"目标发挥重要作用。 规范排放管理 确定产品碳足迹是减少企业碳排放行为的第一步。对于企业而言，有助于企业真正了解产品对气候变化 的影响，并由此采取可行 ...

证券日报网讯 2月24日，新钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，新钢股份是江西省内最大的国有 钢铁生产企业，主营业务涵盖钢铁冶炼、钢材轧制及延伸加工等领域；公司产品系列丰富，涉及冷热轧 薄板、中厚板、线棒材、优特钢、电工钢、金属制品等多个品种规格，广泛应用于油气装备、航空、铁 路、汽车家电、造船、海洋工程、建筑、桥梁高建结构、工程机械、新能源等领域及国家重点工程。公 司借助中国宝武先进的管理、技术、资本、资源、人才、品牌等优势发挥协同效益，促使公司管理、经 营水平再上新台阶，迈上高质量发展的快车道，持续增强新钢在区域的竞争力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]

其中，建筑钢材库存总量为381.90万吨，较上周增加44.45万吨（+13.17%)，包含30个城市，共计79个仓 库。热卷库存总量为223.81万吨，较上周增加12.98万吨（+6.16%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓库。中 厚板库存总量为74.80万吨，较上周增加1.80万吨（+2.47%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库冷轧涂镀库存 总量为118.80万吨，较上周增加0.30万吨（+0.25%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 新华财经北京2月9日电钢银电商最新数据显示，截至2月9日当周，全国38个城市，共计135个仓库的城 市钢材总库存量为799.31万吨，较上周环比增加59.53万吨，增幅8.05%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

本周行情综述 行业概况：基本面方面，基于钢厂铁矿进口库存继续增加+钢企钢厂库存小幅增加，判断钢厂处于原料备货阶段末期+ 钢材生产环节初期。上游方面，钢厂春季原料补库基本结束，BHP 谈判妥协后产品有望进入市场流通的预期下，铁矿 价格下行；印尼动力煤出口暂停激发国内焦煤期货做多情绪，考虑到我国自印尼进口焦煤敞口极低，且动力煤和冶金 煤替代关系弱，预计焦煤基本面维持底部不变。钢企端，在短流程支撑边际成本的情况下，本周钢企价差修复，环比 +15.7 元，目前吨亏 22.3 元。据 Mysteel 统计，钢企盈利在 39.4%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定；行情方面，宽基 EFF 大额卖出冲击商品股，钢铁受地产政策预期影响在后半周迎来修复，本周中信钢铁指数涨幅-3.0%，跑输大盘 1.7%。 钢铁：本周京津冀地区热轧板卷市场震荡下行，调整幅度为-20 元/吨，现全国均价为 3284 元/吨，周环比下调 15 元/ 吨。本周京津冀中厚板普中板 14-20mm 现报价 3210-3340 元/吨。调研数据：本周 Mysteel 样本热轧板卷钢厂产能利 用率为 78.98%，周环比减少 0.02%；周产量为 309.16 万吨， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the domestic steel industry is experiencing a mixed trend in raw material prices, with export policies driving external prices higher while domestic prices remain under pressure [1][2] - Steel mills are currently in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing but steel inventory remaining low, suggesting a cautious approach to restocking due to weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday production [2][3] - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, indicating that previous raw material price increases may have started to impact financial statements [1][2] Group 2 - The average price of hot-rolled coils in major markets is reported at 3355 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week [3] - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton, while inventory levels at major ports have decreased [4] - The price index for domestic iron concentrate shows mixed results, with the price for 66% concentrate at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase, while overall iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise [5]

新华财经北京2月2日电钢银电商最新公布的数据显示，截至2月2日的一周，全国38个城市，共计135个 仓库的城市钢材总库存量为739.78万吨，较上周增加29.06万吨，增幅4.09%。 其中，建筑钢材库存总量为337.45万吨，较上周环比增加21.37万吨（+6.76%)，包含30个城市，共计79 个仓库。热卷库存总量为210.83万吨，较上周环比增加5.63万吨（+2.74%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓 库。中厚板库存总量73.00万吨，较上周环比增加2.32万吨（+3.28%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库。冷 轧涂镀库存总量为118.50万吨，较上周环比减少0.26万吨（-0.22%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

2025年，中国钢铁行业上演了充满张力的"冰与火之歌"。在需求连续第五年下滑、市场供强需弱的背景 下，行业整体利润却迎来爆发式反弹。国家统计局数据显示，2025年黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利 润总额1098.3亿元，同比增长高达299.2%。然而，A股上市钢企的悲欢并不相通。 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，截至1月30日晚间，多家A股钢铁类上市公司披露业绩预告：一方 面，首钢股份、山东钢铁凭借产品结构优化和降本增效，业绩强势扭亏或实现大增；另一方面，尽管原 材料成本大幅下移助推全行业减亏，但鞍钢股份、重庆钢铁等老牌巨头依然未能爬出亏损泥潭。 值得注意的是，业绩分化的背后，不仅是企业经营策略的较量，更是中国钢铁行业从建筑用钢主导向制 造业用钢主导的历史性跨越。当房地产红利退潮，高端化转型已不再是选择题，而是关乎企业生死的必 答题。 谁在寒冬中突围？ 2025年的钢铁市场，原材料价格的显著下行成为企业减亏的最强助攻。据中国钢铁工业协会披露，进口 粉矿、炼焦煤、冶金焦采购成本同比分别下降8%、27%和24%，均为近3年最大降幅。 这股成本端的"暖风"，吹暖了部分头部钢企的财务报表。在已经披露业绩预告的企业中，山东 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, despite a continuous decline in demand for the fifth consecutive year, the overall profit of China's steel industry experienced a significant rebound, with profits reaching 109.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.2% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The steel industry is witnessing a divergence in performance among A-share listed companies, with some like Shougang Co. and Shandong Steel turning losses into profits due to product optimization and cost reduction, while others like Ansteel and Chongqing Steel remain in the loss zone [1][3] - The significant drop in raw material costs, including an 8% decrease in imported iron ore and a 27% drop in coking coal, has aided some leading steel companies in reducing losses [2] - The shift from construction steel to manufacturing steel marks a historic transition in the industry, driven by the retreat of real estate profits and the necessity for high-end transformation [1][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Shandong Steel is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 100 million yuan in 2025, a turnaround from a loss of 2.891 billion yuan the previous year, aided by deep collaboration with China Baowu and cost-saving measures [2] - Shougang Co. expects a net profit between 920 million and 1.06 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 95.29% to 125.01% year-on-year, driven by a high-end and differentiated product strategy [3] - Ansteel anticipates a loss of around 4.077 billion yuan, a reduction of 42.75% from the previous year's loss, while Chongqing Steel expects a loss between 2.5 billion and 2.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges despite some improvements [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand structure in the steel industry has fundamentally reversed, with the proportion of steel used in construction dropping from 53% in 2020 to 36% in 2025, while manufacturing steel usage rose from 42% to 53% [6] - The export of steel reached 119 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, although the average export price fell by 8.1% to 694 USD per ton, indicating a competitive "volume for price" scenario [7] - The industry faces a challenging market environment, with domestic steel demand declining for five consecutive years and a strong supply-demand imbalance [7][8]