证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 量化专题报告 "量价淘金"选股因子系列研究（十五） 高/低位放量事件簇：正负向信号的有机结合 前言：本文为国盛金工《"量价淘金"选股因子系列研究》的第十五篇报告， 也是"事件簇"研究理念的第二次探索。我们的研究目标仍是希望从时序视角 挖掘与截面选股因子不同的 Alpha 信息，对多因子选股策略进行补充。具体 地，本文从"高/低位放量"这一经典技术形态出发，构建有效的事件驱动信 号。 日频数据识别"高/低位放量"不能带来稳定收益：定义日频数据下"高位放 量"、"低位放量"的事件信号，平均来看事件的超额收益在触发对应信号后 20- 25 个交易日左右到达峰值，随后有所下降。利用日频"高位放量"、"低位放 量"信号构建资金通道策略，发现组合的收益波动较大，并不能提供稳定增量。 "高/低位放量"事件簇的规模化生产：借助微观量价信息、从更高频的视角 构建收益更为稳定的"高/低位放量"事件簇。事件簇的构建分为三步：（1） 事件识别：通过观测价格是否处于高/低位、量是否放大，对高/低位以及放量 的分钟进行标记；（2）信号定义：可以采用" ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) as a leading global AI PCB manufacturer, emphasizing its deep engagement with top GPU and ASIC clients [15][16][18] - The company has achieved significant advancements in HDI technology, being one of the first to mass-produce 6-layer 24-layer HDI products and is actively developing next-generation 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [16] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Vietnam, and is enhancing its collaboration with major clients to align with their R&D and production schedules [17] Group 2: Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Shenghong Technology is projected to reach 370 billion and 599 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 120 billion and 197 billion yuan [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing value of PCBs in AI servers, which will further strengthen its competitive position in the market [16][18] Group 3: Industry Context - The report notes that the AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year [15] - The demand for advanced PCB technology is rising in line with the growth of AI applications, positioning Shenghong Technology favorably within this expanding market [15][16]