1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic supply side of aluminum has little change, with the operating capacity increasing steadily. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream consumption shows signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. With the improvement of aluminum demand, the accumulation rate of aluminum ingot social inventory slows down. The peak season may continue to boost aluminum demand and support the trend of Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [7]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up, and the market focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: US employment data in August was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut this month and weakening the US dollar index. The focus is on this week's US non - farm payrolls data. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [6]. - **Main View**: Domestic aluminum supply has little change, while demand is recovering. The overall operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises rose to 61.7%. The social inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots slows down. The peak season may boost aluminum demand and support Shanghai aluminum. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with support at the 60 - day moving average of 20600 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Multi - factor**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is heating up; the "Golden September" is approaching, and consumption is expected to improve; the domestic spot discount narrows [11]. - **Empty - factor**: The price of alumina continues to be weak; the social inventory may continue to accumulate; the overseas spot premium increases [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum bauxite output was 3583 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, the output was 543.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment volume of aluminum bauxite decreased, and it is expected that the import volume from Guinea will decline from August to October [19][24]. - **Alumina**: Recently, there have been maintenance on the supply side, but it has little impact on the total output. The operating capacity is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to continue the weak trend [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the operating capacity increased slightly, and the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The growth space of production is limited [31]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. It is expected that the operating rate will increase more widely in mid - September [38]. - **Downstream Demand**: In July 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. The downstream demand is weak [42]. - **Automobile**: In July 2025, China's new energy vehicle output was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; the automobile output was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. It is expected that automobile consumption will continue to grow [46]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. The new housing construction area decreased by 19.4%, and the completed area decreased by 16.5%. Some cities have introduced real - estate optimization policies, and the real - estate market may change [51]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is stable at 479,600 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased last week, with a weekly increase of 0.795% to 125,596 tons. As of September 4, the social inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday [54][58]. - **Spot Premium**: On September 4, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount narrowed; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 3.6 US dollars/ton, and the premium increased [62]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In July, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 624,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. It is expected that the output in August will decline. As of August 29, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 53.5%, a month - on - year increase of 0.4% [66][70]. - **Import and Export**: In July 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. The export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [74]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [78]. 3.4后市研判 - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the electrolytic aluminum futures and remains at a high level [81]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at 20600 [85].