近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布了一份报告，阐释人工智能对全球经济的潜在风险，美股因此引发广泛讨论，甚至出现恐慌性抛售。配送、支 付、软件类股票周一大幅下挫，黑石、KKR等被报告点名的全球PE巨头也未能幸免。 不仅如此，就在几天前，美国资产管理公司蓝鸮资本（Blue Owl）宣布不得不出售资产，以满足投资者集中赎回某只基金的需求，引发市场紧张。这一事 件也导致包括阿波罗、KKR和黑石在内的多家PE巨头股价应声下跌。 2月19日至23日，黑石三个交易日股价累计下跌超15%，KKR累计跌幅也超11%，跌幅远超市场预期。 站在一级市场投资机构的角度，到底发生了什么？ 假想报告的警示： AI或触发私募信贷连锁"崩塌" Citrini Research这份题为《2028全球智能危机》的报告并非当下市场分析，而是以2028年6月为视角的"金融史思想实验"。 报告在核心论点中指出，AI的通缩力量若失控，将成为针对"中介"和"白领工资"的经济瘟疫，而私募信贷市场崩塌，会是金融系统危机的核心导火索。这 份报告虽为假想推演，也成为此次美股波动的重要情绪推手。 报告还指出，金融传染会从私募信贷向保险、资管行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential large-scale intervention in Argentine financial markets, contingent on market conditions, following a meeting between President Trump and President Milei at the UN General Assembly [2][10]. U.S. Intervention in Argentina - The U.S. is prepared for a significant intervention to stabilize Argentina's financial markets, depending on the outcomes of the upcoming meeting between the two presidents [2][4]. - The Secretary expressed that there is no immediate danger of financial contagion from Argentina, but highlighted concerns about a "lost generation" due to the stagnant economy [3][10]. Political Context - The intervention appears to be politically motivated, aimed at supporting a center-right government in South America and preventing political contagion [3][10]. - The Argentine markets have been volatile following President Milei's loss of support in local elections, raising fears about the potential return of socialist policies [8][10]. Economic Measures - Argentina is currently scrapping some export tariffs to address its urgent need for U.S. dollars, indicating the severity of its economic situation [15]. - The U.S. administration views the economic experiment under President Milei as significant and worth preserving, reinforcing the political alliance between the two nations [10]. Federal Reserve Chair Search - The Treasury Secretary mentioned that there are 11 candidates for the position of Fed chair, with interviews for 10 of them expected to be completed by the end of next week [4].