Core Viewpoint - The report by Citrini Research highlights potential risks of artificial intelligence (AI) to the global economy, triggering significant discussions and panic selling in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting delivery, payment, and software stocks, as well as major private equity (PE) firms like Blackstone and KKR [1][3]. Group 1: AI Impact on the Economy - The report titled "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" suggests that uncontrolled deflationary forces from AI could lead to an economic plague targeting "intermediaries" and "white-collar wages," with a collapse in the private credit market being a core trigger for a financial crisis [3][7]. - AI's evolution is expected to erode the competitive advantages of the Software as a Service (SaaS) industry, leading to a collapse in pricing and the failure of business models reliant on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [7][9]. - A hypothetical scenario in the report predicts a $5 billion private credit default by Zendesk in 2027, which could trigger a chain reaction affecting the entire SaaS pricing structure and leading to widespread defaults in private credit [7][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and PE Firms - The liquidity crisis at Blue Owl Capital, which announced asset sales to meet investor redemption demands, has exacerbated market tensions and contributed to stock price declines for major PE firms [9][10]. - Following the announcement from Blue Owl, stocks of firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management dropped significantly, with Blackstone's stock falling over 15% from February 19 to 23 [10][13]. - The private credit market, which has rapidly expanded to $1.8 trillion, is now facing structural risks, with an expected increase in default rates due to AI disruptions, particularly in the technology and business services sectors [13][14]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The U.S. market is reassessing the long-term impacts of AI on finance and the real economy, leading to heightened scrutiny on risk pricing and liquidity management within the private credit industry [14]. - Citadel Securities argues that the rapid expansion of AI is unlikely to cause massive job losses, countering the fears raised by the Citrini Research report [14].

近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布了一份报告，阐释人工智能对全球经济的潜在风险，美股因此引发广泛讨论，甚至出现恐慌性抛售。配送、支 付、软件类股票周一大幅下挫，黑石、KKR等被报告点名的全球PE巨头也未能幸免。 不仅如此，就在几天前，美国资产管理公司蓝鸮资本（Blue Owl）宣布不得不出售资产，以满足投资者集中赎回某只基金的需求，引发市场紧张。这一事 件也导致包括阿波罗、KKR和黑石在内的多家PE巨头股价应声下跌。 2月19日至23日，黑石三个交易日股价累计下跌超15%，KKR累计跌幅也超11%，跌幅远超市场预期。 站在一级市场投资机构的角度，到底发生了什么？ 假想报告的警示： AI或触发私募信贷连锁"崩塌" Citrini Research这份题为《2028全球智能危机》的报告并非当下市场分析，而是以2028年6月为视角的"金融史思想实验"。 报告在核心论点中指出，AI的通缩力量若失控，将成为针对"中介"和"白领工资"的经济瘟疫，而私募信贷市场崩塌，会是金融系统危机的核心导火索。这 份报告虽为假想推演，也成为此次美股波动的重要情绪推手。 报告还指出，金融传染会从私募信贷向保险、资管行业 ...