特朗普政府推动的金融去监管化与投行业务复苏，驱动美国六大银行市值今年累计增加6000亿美元。 截至周三收盘，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行、高盛和摩根士丹利六家美国最大银行的总市值已超2.38万亿美元，较去年底的1.77万 亿美元大幅攀升，并有望连续第二年跑赢标普500指数。 RBC银行业分析师Gerard Cassidy表示： 不能低估监管变化对股价的重要性。金融危机后，银行盈利能力受到严重削弱，因为它们不得不持有更多资本，这确实是应该的。 更重要的是，银行业预期巴塞尔协议III全球资本金规则的最终实施版本将比拜登政府2023年的初始提案宽松得多。Cassidy指出： 它们都持有过剩资本，因为已经按照之前的提案进行了储备。 相比之下，欧洲市值最高的六家银行总市值仅为1万亿美元，凸显出2008年金融危机以来美欧银行业分化日益扩大。 监管政策转向成为推动股价上涨的关键因素。今年以来，美国监管机构已提议允许最大型银行提高杠杆率，全面改革用于确定资本要求的年度银 行压力测试，并撤销了针对高风险贷款的放贷指引。 投资银行业务强劲复苏进一步提振市场信心。花旗股价今年上涨超70%，领跑六大银行。高盛股价攀升近60 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Insights - Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies, implementing a 10% baseline tariff instead[1] - The suspension indicates a need for more negotiation time, as no agreements were reached with other economies during the one-week window[2] - The focus of Trump's administration is shifting from tariffs to tax reform and deregulation as the 100-day agenda approaches its end[2] Group 2: Economic Impact Analysis - The U.S. GDP is projected to decline by 5.97% over 3-5 years due to high tariffs, with China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico seeing declines of 2.86%, 1.86%, 0.46%, and 0.21% respectively[6] - U.S. CPI is expected to rise by 3.57% over the same period, while China's CPI may change by 0.38%[12] - U.S. exports are forecasted to drop by 17.40%, with China's exports declining by 12.54% over 3-5 years[16] - U.S. imports are anticipated to decrease by 19.52%, with China's imports down by 8.77%[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index typically adjusts by around 20% during economic slowdowns, with potential government interventions to mitigate risks[3] - If no additional tariffs are imposed, the likelihood of a recovery in U.S. stock markets in Q2 is high, contingent on the performance of major indices[3] - The impact of tariffs on trade, output, and inflation is expected to fluctuate in the short term but will stabilize in the long term[4]