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中银国际:产业趋势与金融属性双击 有色有望迎来重估新机遇
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 09:10
Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a revaluation opportunity in 2026, driven by the resonance of financial attributes and industrial trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to show structural upward trends in 2025, characterized by supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic easing, leading to significant excess returns [2] - The rotation within the sector is expected to follow a pattern where precious metals lead, followed by small metals, and then industrial metals [2] - The upcoming bull market phase in 2026 is projected to be driven by profit-driven increases, supported by domestic demand stabilization and a narrative of re-inflation [2] Group 2: Segment Analysis - Small metals are identified as having the highest growth elasticity and the largest potential space, with a solid long-term logic [1][3] - The precious metals sector is currently in a performance realization phase, with a more stable investment attribute [1][3] - Industrial metals are characterized by balanced risk-reward features, making them a foundational choice for portfolio construction [1][3] Group 3: Specific Insights - For industrial metals, the supply side is constrained by mining investment cycles and geopolitical factors, while demand is expected to show steady growth amid structural optimization [3] - The small metals segment is shifting from event-driven speculation to systematic revaluation based on long-term strategic value, particularly in rare earths, which are supported by domestic supply dominance and international pricing power [4] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong long-term logic, with significant performance releases anticipated to aid in valuation recovery [4]