各位上午好今天是9月24号欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的周期论剑的在线直播我是张蕾Rachel基础材料行业的分析师今天讨论几个主题一个呢是我们那个公用事业和新能源首席侯进他会聊一下他今天刚出的一个风电行业的一个大报告然后我们汽车行业的分析师王冰宇会聊一下这个汽车经销商的这个拐点是不是已经到了 接着我们交易行业的分析师宋天一会聊一下他们最近也是今天刚出了一个交易行业的报告然后最后的话我们金融行业的首席徐然会聊一下他最近带着邮储银行的MDR以及他们在欧洲路演的一些反馈开始之前我例行需要读一个disclaimer请注意本次会议紧面向摩根士丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话请请退出会议 另外呢提示一下大家在整个会议的过程中呢您可以随时在屏幕上发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样的话呢我们可以节约一些这个Q&A的等待时间好的那我也不多说了我先把时间交给Iva 好的 谢谢Rachel我是Eva Ho是公众事业和新能源行业的分析师我们今天发了一个风电行业的报告这个报告的话其实我们也是想主要讲一下我们对于风电行业一个持续的乐观的观点风电行业其实在经过了从2022年23年到2024年这三年的一个行业的下行的周 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: China is undergoing a new round of supply-side reforms, focusing on eliminating inefficient capacity in emerging industries like automotive and electronics, with total manufacturing debt growth expected to slow to 2%-3% [1][3] - **High-Quality Nutritional Chemical Industry**: The industry has significant growth potential due to rising health product demand and high technical barriers, with New Hope Liuhe being a leading player [5][16] - **Aluminum Industry**: China Hongqiao is one of the largest aluminum producers globally, benefiting from high electrolytic aluminum prices and cost advantages [1][22] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (顺丰) - **Rating Upgrade**: SF Express has been upgraded to "overweight" due to its leading position in the high-end express market, operational efficiency improvements, and technological innovations, with expected profit growth of 11%-12% in Q2 [1][4][10] - **Investment Timing**: Current market conditions present a good buying opportunity, with projected free cash flow yields of 6.5%-8% from 2025 to 2027 [13] - **Risks**: The company faces macroeconomic risks that could impact its international and express business revenues, particularly if economic growth slows in 2025 [14][15] New Hope Liuhe (新和成) - **Market Position**: New Hope Liuhe holds approximately 15% of the global methionine market and 30% of the vitamin E market, with a positive outlook on its growth potential [16][19] - **Capacity Growth**: Expected capacity growth in the next three to four years is below 5%, aligning with global demand growth, indicating minimal supply pressure [17] - **Financial Health**: The company has a strong financial position, with a projected net cash status and positive free cash flow even during industry downturns [19] China Hongqiao (中国宏桥) - **Competitive Advantages**: The company benefits from high electrolytic aluminum prices, cost advantages from integrated operations, and a high dividend policy, with a one-year expected P/E ratio close to 7 times [1][22][23] - **Future Projects**: Participation in the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute significantly to profits, with an estimated 1.3 million tons of iron ore contributing approximately 1.7 billion in profits by 2027 [23] Financial Policies and Market Dynamics - **New Financial Policies**: Recent policies aim to control overcapacity and credit risks, including regulations on accounts payable management and rational investment by local governments [2][3] - **Investment Trends**: Approximately 74% of industrial sectors have slowed investment growth, but demand remains stable, with financial policies supporting a gradual recovery [7][8] Additional Considerations - **Express Delivery Pricing**: Recent price increases in the express delivery sector, particularly in Guangdong, need to be monitored for sustainability and impact on midstream profits [9][12] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment and fundamental changes in the express delivery industry will be influenced by pricing strategies and demand fluctuations [12]