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宝城期货:锰硅震荡寻底
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 00:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]